Matchday 2 of the 2024-25 Champions League introduced targets and surprises aplenty as we proceed to get to know the event’s new format.
Big wins for Barcelona, Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund and Brest on Tuesday had been adopted by shock defeats for Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid as the 36-team desk underwent a shake-up.
The outcomes additionally meant The Athletic’s projections — powered by Opta knowledge — noticed a number of groups expertise a rejig of their projected factors tallies and odds to make the spherical of 16. Here, we have a look at a few of the affected sides, with Matchday 3 lower than three weeks away.
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Brest
Projected factors whole earlier than MD 1: 8 (thirty first in projection desk)
Projected factors whole after MD 1: 9 (twenty fifth)
Projected factors after MD 2: 12 (18th)
Brest have been one in every of the beneficiaries of the new Champions League format. Having been positioned in Pot 4 forward of the draw, the older system could have seen them land two and even three troublesome opponents in the group stage (ask 2019-20 Slavia Prague, who had been grouped alongside Barcelona, Dortmund and Inter Milan).
However, they've as an alternative begun their debut European marketing campaign with a 2-1 win over Sturm Graz at residence and an outstanding 4-0 thrashing of Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg in hostile territory. Initial projections seen them as a bottom-six aspect, however they've rapidly acquired themselves into the early knockout image with two wonderful performances.
Tougher checks await, however Brest appear to have improved their odds of reaching not less than the knockout-round playoff (71 per cent likelihood now, up from 35 per cent earlier than Matchday 1).
Remaining fixtures: Bayer Leverkusen (H), Sparta Prague (A), Barcelona (A), PSV (H), Shakhtar Donetsk (A), Real Madrid (H)
Bayer Leverkusen
Projected factors whole earlier than MD 1: 14 (sixth in projection desk)
Projected factors whole after MD 1: 16 (fifth)
Projected factors after MD 2: 17 (1st)
Bayer Leverkusen are one other of the seven good groups in the Champions League. Xabi Alonso’s aspect started their marketing campaign in type, trouncing Feyenoord 4-0 in the Netherlands earlier than beating AC Milan 1-0 on Matchday 2.
The reigning Bundesliga champions should not the favourites to win the event, however their spectacular begin has seen their projected factors tally go up by three already. They had a 58 per cent probability of instantly making the spherical of 16 after their win at Feyenoord and that quantity has now been boosted to 71 per cent. Their conflict with Brest later this month ought to be a deal with for any impartial observer.
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Leverkusen’s Bundesliga counterparts Borussia Dortmund additionally deserve a point out after routing Celtic 7-1 on Matchday 2 to take care of their good begin. Having been positioned in seventh in the pre-tournament projections, they now sit second with 17 projected factors and a 72 per cent probability of ending in the prime eight.
On the different hand, although, RB Leipzig have sunk from 14th earlier than the league part started to twenty eighth in the newest projections after coming undone by winners in the closing 10 minutes in opposition to each Atletico Madrid and 10-man Juventus. Elsewhere, Bayern Munich’s anticipated factors fell from 16 after Matchday 1 to 14 after their 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa.
Remaining fixtures: Brest (A), Liverpool (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Inter Milan (H), Atletico Madrid (A), Sparta Prague (H)
Arsenal
Projected factors whole earlier than MD 1: 14 (eighth in projection desk)
Projected factors whole after MD 1: 14 (ninth)
Projected factors after MD 2: 16 (fifth)
A 0-0 draw at Atalanta was a far from best begin for Arsenal, however any doubts over their credentials got here crashing down as they cruised previous Paris Saint-Germain — arguably their hardest opponents in the league stage — on Matchday 2. Their possibilities of ending in the prime eight (56 per cent, up from 42 per cent earlier than Matchday 1) and successful the complete factor (9 per cent now from six earlier than Matchday 1) each loved boosts.
Opta’s newest projections recommend Arsenal may match or higher the factors tallies of Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Home video games in opposition to Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Zagreb may assist them enhance their purpose distinction, which can show essential and support in doubtlessly resting gamers for their closing league-phase recreation on January 29 — with Manchester City visiting the Emirates on February 1 in the league.
Remaining fixtures: Shakhtar Donetsk (H), Inter Milan (A), Sporting Lisbon (A), Monaco (H), Dinamo Zagreb (H), Girona (A)
(Ryan Pierse – UEFA/Getty Images)
Aston Villa
Projected factors whole earlier than MD 1: 10 (twenty second in projection desk)
Projected factors whole after MD 1: 12 (sixteenth)
Projected factors after MD 2: 16 (tenth)
After Newcastle United’s eventual struggles final season, eyes had been on Aston Villa to see how they might adapt to the Champions League. A convincing 3-0 win over Young Boys on Matchday 1 boosted hopes and improved their possibilities of direct qualification into the spherical of 16 from 11 per cent to 19 per cent.
Few may have foreseen what adopted this week, although, as one other Jhon Duran stunner handed Villa a memorable 1-0 win over Bayern Munich in a replay of the 1982 European Cup closing.
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On the again of that outcome, Unai Emery’s aspect have beneficial fixtures both aspect of Juventus’ go to to Villa Park in November, leaving them with solely a 5 per cent probability of league-stage elimination.
Remaining fixtures: Bologna (H), Club Brugge (A), Juventus (H), RB Leipzig (A), Monaco (A), Celtic (H)
Real Madrid
Projected factors whole earlier than MD 1: 17 (2nd in projection desk)
Projected factors whole after MD 1: 18 (1st)
Projected factors after MD 2: 16 (sixth)
With one thing of an damage disaster and doubts over how their new-look entrance line will gel, Real Madrid have gotten off to a rocky begin. Wednesday’s 1-0 loss to Lille marked the fourth occasion of the workforce dropping factors of their first 10 video games and decreased their possibilities of retaining the Champions League trophy to 13 per cent.
However, there may be an air of inevitability round Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid in the Champions League and this was additionally their first loss since January, ending a 36-match unbeaten run. Their projected factors whole remains to be larger than Bayern, Barcelona, Juventus, and metropolis rivals Atletico, who had been handed a 4-0 thrashing by Benfica on Matchday 2. Diego Simeone’s males now discover themselves sixteenth in Opta’s projections with a predicted factors tally of 13.
(Michael Regan – UEFA/UEFA by way of Getty Images)
Real Madrid’s job doesn’t get a lot simpler, although, with fixtures in opposition to three of the seven good groups up to now (Dortmund, Liverpool, and Brest) to come back. They will desperately need to keep away from ending outdoors the prime eight with a league Madrid derby scheduled on February 9, simply days earlier than the first set of knockout-round playoffs (February 12 and 13).
Remaining fixtures: Dortmund (H), AC Milan (H), Liverpool (A), Atalanta (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Brest (A)
What about the others?
- All hope is just not misplaced for Celtic simply but. Despite a 7-1 defeat to Dortmund on Matchday 2, Brendan Rodgers’ aspect are nonetheless projected to select up 11 factors — giving them a 62 per cent probability of constructing the play-off spherical. Dortmund had been arguably their hardest opponent of the league part, with video games in opposition to struggling RB Leipzig, Dinamo Zagreb, and Young Boys to come back.
- Liverpool and Juventus have each moved up quickly because of good begins. Having started with the ninth-best projected factors tally, Arne Slot’s aspect now sit fourth, solely behind Bayer Leverkusen, Dortmund, and Manchester City, and have a 44 per cent probability of ending in the prime eight. Juventus, in the meantime, are seventh and have a 46 per cent probability of direct qualification into the spherical of 16. Liverpool’s hardest remaining matchups are in opposition to Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid in November, whereas Juventus will face Villa in November and Manchester City in December.
- Speaking of City, they continue to be favourites to win their second Champions League title, with a 22 per cent probability as per Opta’s newest projections. Pep Guardiola’s males eased previous Slovan Bratislava 4-0 on Matchday 2 after a 0-0 draw with Inter to start their marketing campaign, however spectacular victories for Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund noticed the Bundesliga pair narrowly overtake the 2023 Champions League winners in predicted factors.
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