Prediction and Pick for Saturday’s Matchup between Western Michigan and Ball State | Sports

The calendar has turned to October, and we're a lot nearer to each week's MACtion on Tuesday nights.

The Western Michigan Broncos (1-3) journey to Muncie, Indiana, on Saturday afternoon to tackle the Ball State Cardinals (1-3, 0-1).

Oddsmakers make the Broncos a 9.5-point favourite, and the entire is 56.5. Let's see the betting breakdown under for Saturday afternoons between the Broncos and Cardinals.

Let's get to my Western Michigan vs Ball State prediction.

My Western Michigan vs Ball State finest guess is for WMU to cowl the unfold. I'm backing Western Michigan at -9.5 and would play that to -10.5.

Western Michigan vs Ball State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 5

2 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Western Michigan Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-9.5 -110	56.5 -110 / -110	-340

Ball State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+9.5 -110	56.5 -110 / -110	+270

• Western Michigan vs Ball State Point Spread: Western Michigan -9.5 (-110) · Ball State +9.5 (-110)
• Western Michigan vs Ball State Total: Over/Under 56.5
• Western Michigan vs Ball State Moneyline: Western Michigan -340 · Ball State +270

Before the traces got here out, I knew Western Michigan can be on my radar after final week's loss to Marshall. The Broncos didn't should win, however they may have snuck away with a victory.

The offensive discrepancy between these groups is very large, as I've all the time been keen on quarterback Hayden Wolff. Wolff, the previous Old Dominion switch, has put up stable numbers to date in 2024.

Wolff has 596 passing yards, 4 landing Passes, and one interception to date. The Broncos rank 77th in Pass Success Rate, though I see that quantity climbing.

The Broncos run the ball 64% of the time, and why would not you, with working again Jaden Dixon getting the majority of the carries? Dixon is averaging over 7 YPC to date and has a dream matchup in opposition to a Cardinal protection that ranks one hundred and thirtieth in Rush Success Rate allowed.

They've additionally completed an excellent job at conserving Wolff clear within the pocket, rating twenty second in Havoc allowed. Going up in opposition to a Cardinals protection which will as effectively line up a bunch of site visitors cones on the defensive position is a dream matchup for the offense to bounce again.

Several points must be addressed defensively. The defensive unit ranks exterior the underside 100 in most defensive metrics, together with Rush and Pass Success Rate allowed.

Despite the Cardinals' poor protection efficiency to date, a lot of these metrics are inflated attributable to their early season matchups in opposition to Wisconsin (with a wholesome Graham Mertz) and Ohio State. The Cardinals' offense can be damaged, so there could also be little to fret about.

At the top of the day, I belief the offense to attain at will, and I believe Wolff can have an enormous day if the Cardinals' protection crams the ditch to comprise Dixon within the early going.

The Cardinals haven't had essentially the most manageable schedule to date, however their protection has been gashed by means of 4 video games. They've allowed each opponent to attain 34 factors or higher, together with an FCS Missouri State workforce.

They had been destroyed by JMU final week 63-7 and allowed over eight yards per play. It would possibly seem to be they're lastly catching a break with a 1-3 Broncos workforce coming to city, however I'm afraid that's not the case.

The defensive numbers are atrocious, and the Broncos, for my part, have the second-best or finest offensive unit within the MAC. The Cardinals are already 0-1 in convention play and are effectively on their approach to 0-2.

If you take a look at their defensive metrics under, you possibly can see how terrible they're. They're exterior the underside 125 in virtually each class apart from Havoc, through which they're nonetheless ranked one centesimal.

They can't and won't get stops in opposition to the Broncos, so the query is that if their offense can backdoor them into a canopy. It is a plus matchup for the offense, however their metrics have been putrid to date as effectively.

The greatest concern for the offense has been the offensive line, as quarterback Kadin Semonza has taken 14 sacks to date. If you eradicate his 5 interceptions, Semonza could have an honest stat line, as he is thrown seven landing passes and 753 yards to date.

The offense hardly ever runs the ball and strikes at a snail's tempo. It is a plus matchup in opposition to a foul Broncos secondary, however they will be unable to maintain up all through the matchup.

The Broncos' working recreation may simply dominate T.O.P., making it tough for their offense to maintain up.

Toggle the dropdowns under to cover or present how Western Michigan and Ball State match up statistically:

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	75	121
PFF Coverage	84	133
Special Teams SP+	90	93
Middle 8	108	132
Seconds per Play	28.1 (81)	29.1 (103)
Rush Rate	64% (14)	47% (118)

The Broncos are a sleeper within the MAC and are flying underneath the radar attributable to their 1-3 non-conference begin. They have the offense to outscore anyone within the MAC, however their protection will likely be a query mark shifting ahead.

That mentioned, I just like the Broncos laying the quantity on the street. The Cardinals have a ton of accidents on each side of the ball, and their protection has been demolished by means of 4 video games.

Semonza has some expertise at quarterback, however he turns the ball over an excessive amount of for my liking, and his offensive line will proceed to hold him out to dry. The Broncos ought to rating at will, and I believe the Cardinals will need assistance to backdoor the quantity regardless of what seems to be a plus matchup for their offense.

Pick: Western Michigan -9.5 (Play to -10.5)

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• Western Michigan is 1-3 SU and ATS
• Ball State is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS
• Ball State video games are 4-0 to the Over

College Sports & MLB Staff Writer

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