Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Act I of the 2024 faculty soccer season ends on Saturday. Act II, the Headliners portion, begins with Georgia-Alabama in Week 5 and numerous large video games after that. But for now, we end the information-gathering portion of the season. And there's loads of info left to assemble.
On Saturday we'll be taught whether or not Oklahoma is definitely able to compete with the SEC's elite, with the Sooners making their official league debut towards perhaps the most popular crew within the nation. We'll be taught whether or not Lincoln Riley's USC is definitely able to deal with Big Burly Manball. We'll be taught who the Big 12 front-runner must be. We'll be taught whether or not Clemson and/or Louisville are able to be ACC vice-front-runners. We'll be taught whether or not Notre Dame can keep away from going 0-2 in MAC play.
As at all times, there's loads to maintain up with. Here's all the things you must learn about Week 4.
Jump to a subject:
Tennessee-OU | Big-time Big Ten
Big 12 curler coaster | ACC favorites
Chaos picks | Week 4 playlist
Small college showcase
Oklahoma's SEC debut, for higher or worse
It's becoming that Oklahoma's first official SEC game is towards Tennessee. The Sooners and Volunteers have performed solely 4 occasions of their respective histories, however they've made their interactions depend. Two of these 4 video games had been within the Orange Bowl, together with a down-to-the-wire OU win in 1968, and a 2014-15 home-and-home collection produced a traditional in OU's double-overtime comeback win in 2015.
There's familiarity on the sidelines, too. OU coach Brent Venables was a longtime Bob Stoops assistant in Norman, and Tennessee's Josh Heupel was each a nationwide title-winning quarterback and nine-year assistant. He was pushed out as offensive coordinator and changed by Lincoln Riley in 2015. He in all probability hasn't forgotten that.
Both groups are 3-0, however Heupel's Vols have been far more spectacular. They walloped Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State by a mixed 191-13, and whereas they've confronted solely the No. 102 schedule to date, per SP+, OU's schedule is 107th and the Sooners gained their previous two video games by simply 19 factors. Lots of good groups have but to face a serious problem, and just one — Tennessee — ranks first in factors scored and allowed per drive.
Blue-chip sophomore Nico Iamaleava is averaging almost 10 yards per dropback, backs Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop are averaging 8.6 yards per carry between them, and the defensive entrance is permitting simply 2.1 yards per (non-sack) carry. The solely potential weak point is a cross protection that ranks simply 69th in passing success price allowed; that is a reasonably poor quantity contemplating higher passing groups loom on the schedule.
OU may not be one of these groups. Despite the mediocre schedule, the Sooners are presently one hundred and twenty fifth in yards per dropback. Quarterback Jackson Arnold has additionally already taken 9 sacks, and Oklahoma may need its first dangerous offensive line in a couple of quarter-century. Arnold is OU's solely efficient rusher, and he is top-20 in scramble yardage, however he is getting hit continually, and he is averaging a dreadful 9.0 yards per completion — he isn't even getting hit within the identify of making massive performs.
New offensive coordinator Seth Littrell hasn't been in a position to determine what, if something, OU can truly do properly. Now All-American edge rusher James Pearce Jr. & Co. come to city. Pearce has been remarkably quiet this season, however then once more, he hasn't had a purpose to be loud but.
Oklahoma is an underdog as a result of of offense, however the quickest, most aggressive OU protection we have seen in fairly some time may give it a shot. The Sooners lead the nation in takeaways and rank within the high 15 in each yards allowed per (non-sack) carry and sack price, however they're additionally not permitting massive performs — solely 2.6% of opponents' performs have gained 20-plus yards (eighth). R Mason Thomas ranks eighth nationally in havoc performs (TFLs, passes defended or compelled fumbles), and after making simply 4.5 TFLs in his first two seasons, junior sort out Gracen Halton already has 4.5 in three video games. There are wafts of Tommie Harris- or Frank Alexander-level disruption coming from the OU defensive entrance. That may permit the Sooners to render the Vols one-dimensional, and whereas that one dimension (Iamaleava and the passing game) is superior — and whereas I'm not but offered on the Sooners' cross protection — having to transform third-and-longs with a younger quarterback in a ridiculously hyped setting has tripped up loads of favorites by means of the years.
Games like this are what OU requested for when becoming a member of the SEC. The protection appears prepared. Memorial Stadium will completely be prepared. The offense … we'll see.
Current line: Vols -7 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.1 | FPI projection: Vols by 8.4
Ranked vs. Ranked within the Big Ten
The Big Ten provides us two differing types of massive video games this weekend. On Friday night time, unbeaten Nebraska and Illinois meet in Lincoln with each on the lookout for their first 4-0 begins since 2016 and 2011, respectively. And on Saturday, we get our first official Helmet Game of the brand new Big Ten period with USC visiting Michigan. Plenty of stakes in that one.
USC has completed forward of Michigan within the last AP ballot solely as soon as up to now six seasons, however a pair of massive 2024 video games — USC's win over LSU, Michigan's blowout loss to Texas — have put the Trojans forward. Early returns on each the Miller Moss and the D'Anton Lynn eras at USC have been constructive.
Moss, the Trojans' new beginning quarterback, is finishing 73% of his passes (eleventh nationally) with a 61% success price (fourth). He may not be the uncooked playmaker that Heisman-winner Caleb Williams was, however he will do exactly nice in Lincoln Riley's QB-friendly system. Lynn, in the meantime, took on a a lot harder job: Riley's defensive coordinator. And regardless of half of USC's video games coming towards LSU, the Trojans are presently a stable twenty fifth in factors allowed per drive, combining environment friendly run protection with a bend-don't-break cross protection.
The former will matter far more than the latter on Saturday. It seems Michigan is about to double down on the one factor that has labored.
It wasn't onerous to see the imaginative and prescient of Sherrone Moore choosing Davis Warren over Alex Orji as QB No. 1 to start out the 2024 season. Orji is not a reliable passer — in components of three seasons he has tried simply eight passes (sacked as soon as) which have netted 18 yards. He can run, and we assumed him to be the inheritor obvious for a lot of the offseason, however Warren threw higher in camp, and Moore determined to roll the cube.
One-quarter of the way in which by means of the season, nonetheless, Warren has accomplished simply two passes of more than 25 yards and thrown six interceptions. He's 103rd in Total QBR, and in a gimme game towards Arkansas State final week he was picked off 3 times with two sacks in 16 cross makes an attempt. He misplaced the plot, and if the passer cannot cross, simply go together with the runner. Orji will begin on Saturday as Michigan doubles down on manball.
USC hasn't precisely been manball-resistant beneath Riley. The Trojans went 0-3 towards Utah out West, and in 12 video games through which opponents operated out of a two-tight finish formation a minimum of 30% of the time, USC has gone simply 6-6. Part of that comes from the truth that groups are more prone to go together with heavy formations after they're already forward, however these 12 video games embody video games towards bodily Utah, Notre Dame and Stanford groups that weren't afraid to assault a seven- or eight-man field with the run.
Even with Warren at QB, Michigan is working with two tight ends 36% of the time. I'd be shocked if that proportion wasn't larger towards the Trojans.
Between the run game and a robust secondary that includes cornerback Will Johnson, Michigan will completely check out what we nonetheless have to learn about USC. But one assumes Orji should cross a minimum of barely properly for the Wolverines to prevail.
Current line: USC -5.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 3.9 | FPI projection: USC by 2.9
Matt Rhule is a second-year leap grasp, and in his second yr at Nebraska, his Cornhuskers have already achieved their highest AP ballot rating since 2016. Blue-chip freshman Dylan Raiola has accomplished 74% of his passes and created an incredible reference to receiver switch Isaiah Neyor, and in the meanwhile he is fourth within the convention in Total QBR, forward of Dillon Gabriel and Miller Moss, amongst others.
Illinois simply has the very best protection Raiola has confronted. The Fighting Illini are fifteenth in QBR allowed, and whereas the cross rush hasn't performed a lot, this seems to be like one other dynamite Illinois secondary because of corners Torrie Cox Jr. and Terrance Brooks.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has the Illinois passing game working a bit higher than regular, and receiver Pat Bryant has taken his game to a special degree, catching 15 of 17 passes for 235 yards and 4 scores. But coach Bret Bielema nonetheless desires to run the ball, and the Illini do not try this very properly, rating 87th in speeding success price. You in all probability do not wish to be in loads of must-pass conditions towards a superb Nebraska secondary.
This game may come all the way down to errors. Raiola has thrown just one interception in 80 passes, and Altmyer has none, however they're going through ball-hawking secondaries in what must be a tense setting.
Current line: Huskers -7.5 (down from -8.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Huskers by 9.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.7
The Big 12 curler coaster begins
Big 12 play begins in earnest this week with two video games that might instantly shake up the title odds. The No. 2 and No. 3 favorites, per SP+ (Utah and Oklahoma State) face off in Stillwater, whereas the No. 1 favourite (Kansas State) takes on an unbeaten upstart on the street.
Behold, Saturday's most-seasoned game. Utah-OSU will pit two Twentieth-year coaches (Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy) and two seventh-year quarterbacks (Cam Rising vs. Alan Bowman) towards one another.
OSU has gotten little or no out of star Ollie Gordon II this yr — he is averaging simply 3.5 yards per carry (0.9 earlier than contact), and OSU ranks one hundred and fifteenth in speeding success price — however the Cowboys are nonetheless overachieving towards projections as a result of of an improved passing assault. Bowman is twenty third in Total QBR and has but to take a sack; he throws fast, secure passes to fit man Brennan Presley and mixes in downfield photographs to De'Zhaun Stribling, Rashod Owens and rising sophomore Talyn Shettron.
The Cowboys' protection has been respectable at forcing third-and-longs however has allowed 23% of opponent completions to achieve 20-plus yards (121st nationally). Against a standard Utah offense, that would not be problematic — Utah does not usually make many massive performs. But earlier than lacking the final game with a hand damage, Rising (who will play Saturday) was averaging 19.2 yards per completion with a quantity of deep photographs to Dijon Stanley and Money Parks.
The Utah cross protection has been much better than OSU's: The Utes are tenth in passing success price allowed and thirteenth in sack price. But like OSU, the profitable performs they permit are fairly massive.
This may very well be one other OSU game determined by explosive performs. The Cowboys thrive in chaos — they're 21-10 in one-score finishes because the begin of 2019 — however Utah has the more confirmed and barely much less glitchy protection.
Current line: OSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.3 | FPI projection: OSU by 3.9
If you zoom in, you possibly can see Kansas State's Powercat emblem halfway between Utah's and OSU's on the chart above. The Wildcats have their very own model of all-or-nothing D. They're second in strain price and sixteenth in stuff price, with Brendan Mott and linebacker Austin Romaine having mixed for eight TFLs and 4.5 sacks and linebacker Desmond Purnell contributing 5 run stops.
The Wildcats have additionally allowed 20-plus yards on 7.7% of snaps, a hundred and first nationally. It's as if they need your drive to finish shortly a method or one other to allow them to return to mauling you with their superior run game.
Backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards are averaging 5.7 yards per carry between them, quarterback Avery Johnson is averaging 8.1 (not together with sacks), and Okay-State ranks third nationally in yards per carry. Johnson has a methods to go as a passer, however if you cannot knock the Wildcats off-schedule, nothing else issues. BYU's protection has dominated towards the cross to this point, however the Cougars are 59th in yards allowed per carry. They ought to have a loud house crowd and an apparent edge in passing conditions, however they must create these conditions first.
I'm undecided BYU can sustain in a observe meet, however quarterback Jake Retzlaff and receiver Chase Roberts are awfully good. Retzlaff leads the crew in speeding — each as a result of he is good at it and as a result of BYU's high two RBs missed final week's win over Wyoming (their standing is unsure this week) — and Roberts is the one Cougar with more than six catches. He's received 15 for 263.
Current line: Okay-State -6.5 | SP+ projection: Okay-State by 9.7 | FPI projection: Okay-State by 7.9
ACC favorites at house
There's a morbid fascination to this week's game between unbeaten Cal and winless Florida State — that combo is completely what we anticipated, proper? — however we'll relegate that game to the Week 4 Playlist under and focus as a substitute on what we'll be taught when two seemingly contenders face attention-grabbing house exams.
We noticed a very flawed Clemson crew collapse towards Georgia in Week 1, then we noticed perhaps the very best efficiency in years in a 66-20 demolition of Appalachian State in Week 2. I assume the third game will break the tie?
Quarterback Cade Klubnik's 99.6 single-game Total QBR towards App State was the very best of the season. He truly threw downfield — a rarity over the previous couple of years — and it seemed nice on him. On passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield, he was 5-for-5 for 194 yards and two touchdowns; true freshman Bryant Wesco Jr., a top-30 prospect, caught two of these balls for 127 yards in a star flip. Throw in Phil Mafah's robust working and the truth that this could be the worst NC State protection in a minimum of 5 years, and there's purpose for optimism right here.
For NC State, true freshman CJ Bailey will evidently begin at QB for the injured and ineffective Grayson McCall. After a shaky first couple of drives final week towards Louisiana Tech, he went 12-for-17 for 144 yards, rushed for 25 more yards and helped to show a 17-6 deficit right into a semi-comfortable 30-20 win. This is not the Clemson protection of outdated — the Tigers are presently thirty first in defensive SP+ — however having your first profession begin are available in Death Valley East appears suboptimal.
Current line: Clemson -20.5 (up from -16!) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 11.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 18.9
We may be taught one thing actual about Louisville this week. The Cardinals had been an absolute wrecking ball towards Austin Peay and Jacksonville State, however the former is 71st in FCS SP+ and the latter is 122nd in FBS. Louisville is Tennessee-esque, rating within the high 5 in each factors scored and allowed per drive. Quarterback Tyler Shough is dealing, a quartet of working backs is averaging over 250 yards per game and 9.5 yards per carry, and the cross protection has been almost excellent.
The Cardinals are solely 53rd in yards allowed per carry, nonetheless, with some gashes right here and there. And if we have discovered something about quarterback Haynes King, working again Jamal Haynes and the Tech assault, it is that they will run till you cease them.
The shine wore off a bit after the Yellow Jackets' Week 2 loss to Syracuse, however they're nonetheless 3-1 and thirteenth in factors scored per drive. A woeful cross protection — one thing that did not value them towards Florida State (as a result of FSU cannot cross) however definitely did towards Syracuse — may stop them from maintaining with the Cardinals for 60 minutes. But they may a minimum of render Louisville one-dimensional for some time whereas using their very own one dimension a good distance.
Current line: Louisville -10 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 12.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 12.0
Week 4 chaos superfecta
Each week, I take advantage of SP+ win possibilities as an try and will chaos into existence — I have a look at 4 rigorously chosen video games with fairly massive level spreads and mash them collectively right into a a lot more upset-friendly quantity. And because of Washington State's Apple Cup win over Washington, we're now 3-for-3.
This week's superfecta is ACC-themed. SP+ says that between Clemson (76% win chance vs. NC State), North Carolina (76% vs. JMU), Louisville (79% vs. Georgia Tech) and Miami (90% at USF), there's solely a 41% probability that every one 4 favorites win. I assume which means the percentages of ACC oddity are 59%, huh?
Week 4 playlist
Here are some more video games it is best to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.
Stanford Cardinal at Syracuse Orange (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Stanford's first cross-country ACC street journey is to upstate New York on a Friday night time. That's fairly the initiation. It's additionally an attention-grabbing alternative for each groups. Stanford is enjoying comparatively mistake-free (and not-so-high-upside) ball, and Syracuse has been sensible on offense and largely nonexistent on D. The Orange are apparent favorites, however not dramatically so.
Current line: Syracuse -8.5 | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 7.0 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 7.7
Early Saturday
Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers (midday, ESPN2). My postgame win expectancy measure — which takes the predictive stats from a given game and says “With these stats, you would have won this game X% of the time” — put Kansas at 58% towards Illinois and 87% towards UNLV. Their odds of going 2-0 had been about 10 occasions higher than going 0-2, and but … 0-2 it was. Now comes an opportunity to wipe the slate clear and intention to get into the Big 12 title race. WVU, in the meantime, can also be 1-2 and occupied with that “clean slate” factor.
Current line: WVU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 2.9 | FPI projection: WVU by 0.3
Florida Gators at Mississippi State Bulldogs (midday, ESPN). Two more groups purchasing on the Clean Slate retailer. Florida's protection is inexcusably dangerous, and Mississippi State simply suffered a 24-point loss to Toledo, a margin that was extraordinarily type to the Bulldogs. But hey, one of these groups will get to win a convention game!
Current line: Gators -6 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Gators by 5.5 | FPI projection: Gators by 1.0
Marshall Thundering Herd at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (midday, Fox). Marshall's not going to beat Ohio State, even in an “NIU beats Notre Dame” universe. But the Thundering Herd have by far the very best cross protection Will Howard and the Ohio State offense have seen in 2024. That, and the promise of limitless Tudor's Biscuits, may check the Buckeyes for a short while, a minimum of.
0:27
Current line: Buckeyes -40 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 40.1 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 31.6
James Madison Dukes at North Carolina Tar Heels (midday, ACCN). With Conner Harrell at QB for the injured Max Johnson, North Carolina has became a “run constantly, convert third-and-manageables, win by making fewer mistakes” crew. We'll see how that works towards a JMU protection that ought to power Harrell out of his consolation zone.
Current line: UNC -10.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 11.4 | FPI projection: UNC by 7.6
Tulane Green Wave at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (midday, ESPNU). SP+ has favored Louisiana all season, and that is the game the place it is both confirmed proper or modifications course. I've more religion in Tulane, however the Cajuns may frustrate the Green Wave's dramatically all-or-nothing offense.
Current line: Tulane -3 | SP+ projection: Louisiana by 5.2 | FPI projection: Tulane by 4.9
Saturday afternoon
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Virginia Tech Hokies (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Rutgers is on the lookout for its second straight win over Virginia Tech and 3-0 begin; star RB Kyle Monangai is dominating, and quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has been flawless, albeit towards Howard and Akron. Tech has rebounded properly from its Week 1 dud towards Vanderbilt and may use a constructive consequence right here to immediate an ACC run. The Hokies are banged up on offense, however the important thing to the game? Actually enjoying the primary half. Their scoring margin is minus-7 earlier than halftime and plus-44 after it.
Current line: Hokies -3.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 3.7 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.2
UCLA Bruins at No. 16 LSU Tigers (3:40 p.m., ABC). It's onerous to fall 36 spots in SP+ in simply two video games, however with a slim win over Hawaii and a blowout loss to Indiana, UCLA has managed to do exactly that. The Bruins at the moment are 73rd, and SP+ does not even learn about their damage issues. LSU has some points (particularly, a dreadful cross protection and no big-play prevention), however UCLA has far more. Either DeShaun Foster's Bruins proper the ship instantly, or issues get ugly.
Current line: LSU -24 (up from -22.5) | SP+ projection: LSU by 18.3 | FPI projection: LSU by 18.7
Buffalo Bulls at No. 23 Northern Illinois Huskies (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). After every week off to bask within the post-Notre Dame glow, NIU will get again to work towards a Buffalo crew that is fairly good at avoiding damaging performs on offense and stopping massive performs on D. We'll see if Pete Lembo's Bulls can keep away from getting pushed round by backs Antario Brown and Gavin Williams and a bodily NIU assault.
Current line: NIU -14 | SP+ projection: NIU by 9.9 | FPI projection: NIU by 12.1
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders (3:30 p.m., FS1). Texas Tech performed its first full game of the season final week in a blowout of North Texas, and ASU is 3-0 for the primary time in 5 years and forcing waves of turnovers. Tahj Brooks vs. Cam Skattebo is one of the more satisfying RB matchups of the week.
Current line: Tech -3 | SP+ projection: Tech by 3.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 0.9
TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs (5 p.m., The CW). Some good, native hate for Week 4. TCU and SMU have break up the final 4 Battles for the Iron Skillet, and the winner has scored a minimum of 40 factors in 5 of the previous six. SMU's offense misplaced the plot in an 18-15 loss to BYU, however early indications are that TCU hasn't but curbed its defensive generosity beneath new coordinator Andy Avalos. There's nonetheless hopefully some observe meet potential right here, is what I'm saying.
Current line: TCU -3 | SP+ projection: SMU by 0.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 1.3
Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers (3:30 p.m. ESPN). Arkansas' offense is thirteenth in success price and sixteenth in proportion of performs gaining 20-plus yards; the Razorbacks additionally rank eighty fifth in penalty yards per game (61.3), 74th in turnovers (4) and 63rd in blown block price. Auburn is twenty fourth in success price, fourth in proportion of 20-plus performs … and 132nd in turnovers (9). These groups have every been partially sensible and partially slapstick. But the winner of this shall be 3-1 and feeling fairly good.
Current line: Auburn -3 | SP+ projection: Auburn by 7.1 | FPI projection: Auburn by 3.3
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 7 Missouri Tigers (4:15 p.m., SECN). Mizzou survived a check from Thomas Castellanos and Boston College final week; now the Tigers tackle one other crew led by an unpredictable jitterbug of a quarterback, Vandy's Diego Pavia. The Commodores' cross protection has not been good. That will seemingly backfire in a reasonably large manner towards Luther Burden III and Co.
Current line: Mizzou -20 (down from -21) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.8 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 18.7
Miami (OH) RedHawks at No. 17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3:30 p.m., NBC). I thought of Miami a dark-horse menace for the Group of 5's CFP bid, however an incredible protection has regressed, and by some means an already-limited offense has too. Notre Dame is coping with one other spherical of offensive line accidents, however this does not seem like the doubtless scary lure game I believed it could be three weeks in the past.
Current line: Irish -28 (up from -26.5) | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 31.1
Saturday night
California Golden Bears at Florida State Seminoles (7 p.m., ESPN2). Two weeks after a pleasant win at Auburn, Cal makes its second of 4 cross-country street journeys in a game that appears, um, barely completely different than we anticipated a month in the past. The Golden Bears are 3-0 and seeking to place themselves as ACC contenders. The Seminoles are 0-3 and merely seeking to cease the bleeding.
Current line: FSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 4.2 | FPI projection: FSU by 3.5
No. 8 Miami Hurricanes at South Florida Bulls (7 p.m., ESPN). Miami is coming off of a 62-0 win over Ball State and ranks within the high 10 in each offensive and defensive success charges. But now comes a singular check. USF cannot throw the ball even just a little bit however boasts an lively defensive entrance and a ridiculously explosive run game. The Bulls had Bama wobbly for 3 quarters, too.
Current line: Miami -16.5 (down from -17.5) | SP+ projection: Miami by 20.8 | FPI projection: Miami by 16.2
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers (7:30 p.m., NBC). Over the final decade, the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale has produced scores like 12-10, 13-10, 17-10 and 14-7; each the Hawkeyes' and Gophers' offenses look just a little more sprightly than regular, and Iowa's Kaleb Johnson leads the nation in speeding yards. But the defenders — Iowa DEs Ethan Hurkett and Max Llewellyn, Minnesota DBs Ethan Robinson and Jack Henderson — in all probability nonetheless run the present right here.
Current line: Iowa -2.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 0.6 | FPI projection: Iowa by 0.0
Bowling Green Falcons at No. 25 Texas A&M Aggies (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). Last we noticed Bowling Green, the Falcons had been almost upsetting Penn State. Now they get a shot at an A&M crew which may have stumbled right into a QB controversy. With Conner Weigman day-to-day with damage, redshirt freshman Marcel Reed led the Aggies to 488 yards in a street win over Florida. Weigman's more environment friendly, however A&M truly made some massive performs with Reed.
Current line: A&M -23 | SP+ projection: A&M by 24.4 | FPI projection: A&M by 21.0
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at No. 1 Texas Longhorns (8 p.m., ESPN+). Oh no, the poor Longhorns. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has an indirect damage, so Steve Sarkisian will go together with backup Arch Manning — who was in all probability the very best participant within the nation final Saturday. I'm simply joyful I received to squeeze ULM into my Ranking the Unbeatens checklist a minimum of as soon as.
Current line: Horns -44.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 46.3 | FPI projection: Horns by 43.7
Late Saturday
Portland State Vikings at Boise State Broncos (9:45 p.m., FS1). Yes, I'm choosing this one as a result of it is about the one one on moreover Kansas State-BYU and, for the late-night people, Northern Iowa-Hawaii. And it should happen provided that PSU will get its whooping cough outbreak beneath management. (There's at all times one thing new in faculty soccer, although I assume that is additionally one thing which may have occurred within the Twenties.) But anytime is an efficient time to look at BSU's Ashton Jeanty.
SP+ projection: BSU by 40.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 38.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let's as soon as once more save a shoutout for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. Here are three video games it is best to observe.
D3: No. 2 Cortland at No. 11 Susquehanna (12 p.m., FloFootball). Cortland, the defending nationwide champ, has begun the yr with two wins by a mixed 146-7. Quarterback Zac Boyes is 28-for-31 passing for 471 yards and six touchdowns, and now comes a revenge try: Susquehanna is the one crew that beat the Red Dragons final season. The River Hawks are good once more, however Cortland seems to be on a special degree.
SP+ projection: Cortland by 15.7
FCS: Yale at Holy Cross (2 p.m., ESPN+). Finally, the Ivy League joins the occasion. Yale, the preseason media favourite to win a 3rd straight convention title, misplaced loads of key contributors and begins the season towards a Holy Cross crew which may have begun to get its footing after a sluggish begin. Yale's defensive entrance, led by finish Dylan Yang and sort out Alvin Gulley Jr., ought to maintain up simply nice. We'll see in regards to the offense.
SP+ projection: Holy Cross by 1.5
FCS: No. 4 Idaho at No. 23 Abilene Christian (8 p.m., ESPN+). SATURDAY NIGHT POPCORN FLICK. Abilene Christian is averaging 38 factors per game and permitting 33. Idaho, in the meantime, scored 41 towards its first FCS opponent of the season final week. The Vandals are trying like contenders, however ACU video games are West Texas observe meets ready to occur.
SP+ projection: Idaho by 8.1
