Right now, if you understand how to actually learn the polls, or in case you have entry to the assorted non-public and inner polling being carried out by and shared solely amongst the elites, Wall Street, and Members of Congress, you then already know that this election was over weeks in the past. Trump merely refused to imagine that “Sleepy Joe” was now not his opponent and that there was as an alternative “some woman” claiming she was “Black” who was now going to pummel him on Election Day. He quickly grew to become unhinged, ranted for hours about Hannibal Lecter, Haitians cannibalizing your pets, and a nonstop drone of oral diarrhea spewing misogyny, racism and primarily claiming that if he loses “it will be the Jews’ fault.”
The overwhelming majority of the nation, the conventional folks, have seen sufficient and need the clown automobile to vanish into the MAGA vortex someplace between actuality and Orlando. The swift and explosive momentum for Kamala Harris is not like something that’s been seen in many years. Which is why perhaps at this level in my rant I simply must say out loud that which is being stated to me in non-public by folks I respect — and never simply in whispers, however in excited tones of exuberance: That a brand new period is being born, one the place caucasian is simply one of many choices however now not the bossy pants of the world. Where it’s OK should you’re lacking the decrease proper quadrant of the second X chromosome thus making it a “y” which suggests you’re by no means going to have your personal fallopian tubes so simply take care of it and maintain your arms off the gender who has them. Simple.
An combination of prime polls as of right this moment reveals that Harris will defeat Trump within the Electoral College rely by 270 to 268.
But I believe we'd like extra. We want to make sure that Trump loses in a landslide, with numbers so large, the likes of which haven’t been seen for the reason that complete nation tuned in to observe Geraldo open up Al Capone’s vault. Because that’s the one approach to assure his everlasting elimination from the general public eye. We ought to accept nothing much less.
As it stands now, listed here are the fundamental conclusions I’ve come to by merely being round my fellow Americans who're purchasing at Costco, having enjoyable making TikToks and consuming as soon as per week at Chili’s:
Harris will win 6 states west of the Rockies: Colorado, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii.
Harris may even win 6 of the 8 Great Lakes States: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York.*
And Harris will win the District of Columbia and the 10 New England and Atlantic states from the Canadian border to Virginia — together with Virginia, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine.
(Sorry, we simply ran out of clip artwork for “Know My States!” You know what they seem like.)
In the two states that don’t do winner-take-all electors, Maine and Nebraska, Trump will win one elector from Maine and Harris will win one elector from Nebraska.
So proper now the crystal ball brings the Harris and Trump totals to…
Since shedding the talk to Harris, Trump’s momentum has come to a screeching halt. Even with Vance “winning” the talk on Tuesday night time along with his “charm,” “civility,” “politeness” and “the“ “Satanic” “laser rays” “shooting” “out” “from” “his” “eyes” “into” “our” “brains,” it didn't assist change anybody’s thoughts. Harris continues on her rocket ship, by no means slowing down and solely rising her reputation every day. Trump’s voting base is now severely depressed and increasingly more they've that sinking feeling as they understand there isn't a method now for Trump or the Astros to win.
BUT…
You and I do know that there are at all times methods for him to win. We simply don’t know what they're as a result of we don’t have “666” inscribed on our foreheads in invisible ink. We do know that Trump has a stellar streak of pulling off the unimaginable — and people who have written him off have greater than as soon as lived to see the day the place they have to eat humble pie. It isn't sensible to do a victory dance on the two-yard line when Trump is your opponent.
So, every of us should nonetheless do our work to get out the vote and, most significantly, be sure Harris has a Democratic House and Senate elected subsequent month to move her/our laws subsequent yr.
I do know lots of you're nonetheless afraid that one way or the other Trump goes to win. So, figuring out how skittish lots of you're about November fifth, let me break it down for you and present you the way troublesome successful goes to be for him. And even when he picks off a swing state or two, there might be multiple approach to cease him.
Here are the three situations:
If Trump wins Michigan, Harris can overcome that by successful both Georgia or North Carolina. That’s all she’ll want. Or, if Harris can’t pull that off, she will nonetheless lose Michigan and be the brand new president by successful Arizona AND Nevada. One little hiccup: When Biden and Harris received Michigan in 2020, they did so with a whopping 66% of the Arab and Muslim vote. 130,000 Arab/Muslim Michiganders voted for Biden and Harris — greater than double what Trump obtained. But polls right here in Michigan since final October have proven that the overwhelming majority of Biden’s Arab voters determined to not vote for his ticket come this November attributable to his funding and arming of Netanyahu’s slaughter of the folks in Gaza. By summer season, I assumed President Biden would have stopped this. Sadly, that didn't occur. And to today, Biden has refused to demand that these to whom we give our bombs and our billions in Israel should comply with our legal guidelines and chorus from committing warfare crimes. What Biden did do that will save the vote in Michigan was to cease working for president, and as an alternative, flip the reins over to his Vice President who had been pushing for a ceasefire and a compliance to our American values of human rights and never killing civilians. Her private critique of Prime Minister Netanyahu was precisely what the vast majority of the Americans wished. An finish to the warfare on Gaza. She supported defending the lives of Israelis, however she was not going to face for the usage of mass hunger as a weapon of warfare. I believe she felt fairly strongly about this — a lot in order that when Netanyahu got here to deal with a joint session of Congress, with a speech filled with vitriol and an out-of-control condemnation of the youth of America who had organized mass protests throughout the nation to cease the insanity, she refused to attend his speech and thus not sit with him on the platform. He was appalled, and the following day he made a beeline to Mar-a-Lago to commiserate with the American Bibi. There are those that perceive the symbolism of what occurred that week and, like me, maintain out a profound hope that U.S. coverage relating to Israel/Palestine will quickly be higher. One signal of that's from two new polls in Michigan which present that Harris’s probabilities could now have improved over Biden’s with the Arab-American group. But not all the best way. She continues to be 18 factors behind the vote they each acquired in Michigan in 2020. But hey, no biggie. Do we actually want Michigan to win in November? Since WWII, the final Democrat who received the White House whereas shedding the state of Michigan was… NO ONE! (Well, aside from the one and solely president in all of historical past who was really from Michigan — Gerald Ford.) As Michelle Goldberg from the New York Times wrote, “If You Lose Michigan, You Lose the White House.”
So what can Biden do to assist his Vice President? Does he actually really feel good telling the Arabs and Muslims of Detroit and Flint to go f*** themselves? Hey Mr. President, don’t fear about us! Heck, we’re used to it. Our 10,000 children who obtained mind harm from ingesting the poisoned water of Flint when a Democrat was within the White House — I’m certain these younger folks received’t maintain it in opposition to anybody after they’re lastly sufficiently old to vote within the subsequent election.**
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Harris MUST win both Georgia or North Carolina — PLUS both Nevada or Arizona.
If Trump wins Michigan AND Pennsylvania, Harris can nonetheless beat him by successful Georgia, North Carolina AND both Nevada or Arizona.
And even when the worst case occurs with Trump successful Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Harris will nonetheless go to the White House if she wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona AND Nevada.
My personal intestine response is that there might be an rebellion of girls on the polls, handing Trump a historic defeat by which Harris might win it in a landslide:
Harris: 55%
Trump: 42%
third Party: 3%
Here are some helpful maps that present the assorted potential outcomes primarily based on if Harris wins the states Biden received in 2020, the states Obama received in 2008 and 2012, and a map of all of the states that each Biden and Obama received in these three elections:
So, ultimate ideas…
What might upend this optimistic consequence for Kamala Harris?
Well, as I defined, Biden’s continued funding and arming of the Netanyahu regime has already depressed the Michigan vote. So these of us in Michigan are working laborious to deliver out new voters to make up for the loss. In 2016, 75,000 Michiganders who voted on Election Day went into the voting sales space and voted for all of the places of work on the poll — aside from President. They simply left the highest line clean. I assume they didn’t like the alternatives they got. We’ll strive to verify folks don't depart this line clean.
Also, one other mistake that might be made in these ultimate 4-5 weeks is that if Harris is suggested by her rich donors to shun the left and drop her extra progressive positions in favor of a “move to the center.” This, too, might scale back or depress the vote for Harris, particularly among the many base. I do know lots of you don’t need to hear that, however I’m simply making an attempt to warn you that the actions of social gathering hacks and pundits have penalties. They had the candidate traipsing round Wisconsin yesterday with Liz Cheney to get out the vote. Thank you Liz Cheney for doing the best factor. But there’s an estimated a million folks in Wisconsin who didn’t vote in 2020. We want them out in droves on November fifth. THAT needs to be the guts and soul of the get-out-the-vote drive — in Wisconsin and each different state! 80 million Americans didn’t vote in 2020. The nonvoters are the second largest political “party” within the U.S.! All we'd like is only a few thousand of them to indicate up — simply this as soon as — to make a distinction: To reduce taxes for all working folks, to make the wealthy pay theirs, to maintain the federal government off ladies’s our bodies, to cease all warfare, to verify each American has a seat on the desk and a bit of the pie! This isn’t “partisan” — that is our Freedom, that is our Democracy! For God’s sake, let’s do that! We are all in the identical boat!
If there ever was an election the place the completely sudden and loopy might occur, that is already that election. Assume nothing. Take zero as a right. Work to stop the worst outcomes and put together to make a doable Trump presidency an entire failure by spending these subsequent weeks serving to to elect Democrats to the House and Senate, thus making a Blue Wall that can assure Trump won't be able to do something for the following 4 years.
Onward!
— Mike
* I'm comfortable for New Yorkers to learn that they're a Great Lakes State. Because they're. I would like them to really feel good that they and Michigan are on the identical actual lake (Erie). That they've double the variety of Great Lakes than Illinois has. And that they should cease calling me so late at night time as a result of they suppose Michigan is within the Central Time Zone. I ❤️ NY.
** I'm not bitter. I want I used to be simply “bitter.” When it involves what occurred to Flint, I’m nonetheless in a rage.
Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
** In order to have a troll-free, hate-free feedback part — and since if there’s one factor I find out about my loopy haters, they'd somewhat spend an eternity in hell with Marjorie Taylor Greene than ship me $5 if pressured to develop into a paid subscriber — my Comments part right here on my Substack is restricted to paid subscribers. But, to not fear — anybody can ship me their feedback, opinions and ideas by writing to me at [email protected]. I learn each one in all them, although clearly I can’t reply to all. The resolution right here shouldn't be optimum however it has labored and my Comments part has develop into an ideal assembly place for folks wanting to debate the concepts and points I elevate right here. There is debate and disagreement, however it's refreshing to have it executed with respect and civility, unfettered by the stench of bigotry and Q-anon madness.
