The potential consequences of Trump’s false claims of election fraud on the GOP’s control of the House | Politics

CNN
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Donald Trump’s obsession with election fraud that doesn’t exist in any important kind may drive the nation right into a authorities shutdown — and will even put the Republican House majority in danger.

In a contemporary present of governing futility, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday did not go a six-month extension of authorities funding, with a measure hooked up to please Trump that makes it more durable for Americans to vote.

The Republican nominee’s calls for for a invoice that targets noncitizen voting, which is already unlawful, pushed Johnson right into a nook with no apparent exits, elevating the risk of a Washington disaster in the run-up to Election Day that might blow again on the GOP.

The gambit has zero probability of producing a brand new regulation — since Democrats who control the Senate oppose it. And Johnson couldn’t even get 16 of his personal members to vote for it for numerous causes — together with unreconcilable calls for by some arch conservatives for enormous finances cuts, which additionally don't have any probability of making it into regulation as a result of of the actuality of divided energy in Washington.

Johnson now seems to have little alternative however to barter with Senate Democrats on a short-term funding measure. But given the tiny House GOP majority and Trump’s looming presence, each step the speaker takes will probably be perilous – particularly if he hopes to cling to his job if Republicans reach holding the House in November.

Trump appears to be setting the GOP up for an intra-party struggle that might flip right into a catastrophe in November.

The historical past of authorities shutdowns means that the social gathering with control of the House — which has preliminary accountability for the public purse — normally pays the largest political worth. And if the speaker can't beat a deadline of October 1 to fund federal operations, the authorities may partially shut down.

The former president isn’t in the behavior of asking Republican Senate Minority chief Mitch McConnell for recommendation. But the Kentucky veteran warned on Tuesday that “the one thing you cannot have is a government shutdown. It’d be politically beyond stupid for us to do that right before the election, because certainly we’d get the blame.”

Ironically, Trump was on Wednesday in the state the place his stand may wreak the most political harm for House Republicans. He held a giant rally in New York, despite the fact that he’s half of a tiny minority of individuals who suppose he can ship his start state in November.

More importantly, New York can also be dwelling to a number of vastly aggressive House races that went pink in the 2022 midterm elections and paved the manner for the slim GOP majority. A political disaster over a shutdown that angers voters would, due to this fact, threat sweeping some of the most weak Republicans in the nation out of their seats.

One of the most threatened Republican lawmakers, Rep. Mike Lawler, from the state’s seventeenth Congressional District, predicted on “The Source with Kaitlan Collins” Wednesday that the drama would finish with out a shutdown and {that a} funding invoice would go with out the voting measure Trump needs included.

“The reality is that we are not shutting down the government with 45 days to go before the election,” Lawler, who supported the laws, stated.

Another at-risk New York Republican, Rep. Marc Molinaro, who bought a shoutout at Trump’s rally in Uniondale, voted for Wednesday’s package deal — however signaled he didn't help driving the nation to the brink to make a political level. “We have to support the continuity of government,” Molinaro informed reporters.

The elections measure, which already handed the House in a standalone vote earlier this yr, would require documentary proof of US citizenship to vote in an election. Critics warn such a regulation may disenfranchise residents who lack such documentation and say the laws is a repair for an issue that doesn't exist.

Johnson has been completely satisfied to indulge Trump’s voter fraud claims – each after the 2020 election and this cycle. But his want to please the former president and his base is main him right into a deep governing gap. The Louisiana Republican has additionally not supplied proof to again his claims that a whole lot of hundreds of undocumented migrants may vote in November.

It will not be but clear how far the ex-president will push this concern — provided that the election registration measure is doomed. One potential interpretation of Johnson’s choice to deliver the concern to the ground on Wednesday is that he wished to exhibit to his social gathering, and even the ex-president himself, that the struggle is hopeless.

“And so now we go back to the playbook, draw up another play, and we’ll come up with a solution,” the speaker informed reporters, amid rising frustration amongst some members of the House GOP majority about the lack of readability on the manner ahead.

But Johnson lacks any apparent play that can get him out of his jam.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — the Georgia Republican who's a fervent Trump supporter and who has been a continuing irritant for Johnson – voted “present” on Wednesday. But she wouldn’t say whether or not she supported closing down the authorities. She as a substitute declared the speaker’s technique a “complete failure” and added, “We weren’t here in the entire month of August and could have finished our 12 separate appropriations bills.”

The constructing showdown on Capitol Hill is much from the first time that Trump’s private political targets have threatened to harm his social gathering. His backing, for example, of a forged of weak candidates in the 2022 midterms — largely as a result of they endorsed his false claims of election fraud — seemed to be a think about the failure of an anticipated pink wave. And the ex-president’s antics promoted senatorial candidates that went onto lose in swing states, costing the social gathering control of the Senate.

Trump’s strain on Johnson additionally helps clarify why the slender House GOP majority is commonly pushed into excessive conditions and confrontations that it will possibly’t win however which have led to this Congress being one of the least productive in trendy historical past. Johnson, who took over from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy final yr, has typically discovered it unattainable to manipulate.

The willingness of Republican leaders to showcase Trump’s false claims of election fraud can also be a menacing omen forward of an election that the ex-president is already implying won't be free and honest. As he did in 2020, the Republican nominee seems to be laying the floor to argue that he was cheated out of victory if he loses to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.

For instance, the ex-president wrote on his Truth Social Network on Wednesday earlier than the House vote: “Democrats are registering Illegal Voters by the TENS OF THOUSANDS, as we speak – They will be voting in the 2024 Presidential Election, and they shouldn’t be allowed to.” There are not any info that again up the declare. But Trump warned: “If Republicans don’t get the SAVE Act, and every ounce of it, they should not agree to a Continuing Resolution in any way, shape, or form.”

Trump’s choice to carry a rally in New York puzzled many strategists, because it’s not a aggressive state in November. But the ex-president relishes showing on his dwelling patch — and repeatedly celebrated his enormous crowd at the Nassau Coliseum on Long Island. And provided that Trump attracts blanket protection on conservative media and plans to swing by means of battleground states in coming days, he in all probability didn’t lose a lot by rallying supporters in his unique dwelling state.

If nothing else, he had enjoyable, ripping Harris repeatedly over her financial and immigration insurance policies, mocking President Joe Biden’s age, denying the existence of local weather change and portraying New York City as gripped by violent crime.

“We are going to win New York,” Trump roared, claiming that he was the solely Republican who may put the Empire State on the map on a day when the Teamsters Union declined to make a presidential endorsement after backing Democratic candidates in latest a long time. This was a blow to Harris that mirrored Trump’s success in remodeling the once-corporate GOP into a celebration that's now in a position to courtroom working-class voters.

“Nice seeing you again,” the ex-president, who now spends most of his time in Florida, informed his crowd as Puccini’s aria “Nessun Dorma” rang out as he left the stage.