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Long Range Forecast — November 1, 2024
Here | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Once a dominant pressure in popular culture, director Robert Zemeckis has loved a assorted profession that’s seen him deal with groundbreaking particular results work (Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, The Polar Express), performance-driven drama (Flight, Cast Away), quirky comedy/dramas (Death Becomes Her, Romancing the Stone), and extra. A prolific author, director, and producer, Zemeckis has stayed busy by way of the final 20 years, although his directorial efforts over that point have been largely missing in endurance—each in time period of field workplace and the general cultural dialog. Zemeckis returns to theaters in November with Here, a multi-generational drama set completely in a lounge, with a set digital camera offering one unchanging, static POV.
Thus far, advertising and marketing for Here has been heavy on the “Forrest Gump reunion” angle, capitalizing on the presence of Zemeckis, co-stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, screenwriter Eric Roth, and a number of other key below-the-line members of the Gump crew, together with composer Alan Silvestri and cinematographer Don Burgess. The demographic most definitely to reply favorably to the Gump comparability (specifically, older moviegoers) has but to return to theaters in the same amount as they did pre-pandemic, making Sony’s determination to give Here a large launch as opposed to their earlier plan for a gradual theatrical roll-out a probably dangerous one. Still, Here‘s prospective audience isn’t one which tends to purchase tickets effectively upfront, making pre-sales information extra unreliable as a forecasting methodology than it could be for, say, a superhero film.
Another angle to take into account is Here‘s use of CGI to age and de-age Hanks and Wright, who play the identical characters over a interval of a number of a long time. What may very well be a canny play for Boomer nostalgia—”Come see Tom Hanks wanting like he did in Bosom Buddies!”—is also a field workplace legal responsibility a drift into the Uncanny Valley alienates potential moviegoers.
An opening within the $10M-$15M vary would place Here roughly in line with Zemeckis’ WWII spy drama Allied ($12.7M), launched over Thanksgiving weekend in 2016. A extra optimistic (and unlikely) comp among the many director’s filmography could be 2012’s Flight, launched on the primary week of November to a debut gross of $24.9M.
Among post-2020 dramas given a large theatrical launch in the course of the month of November are Napoleon ($20.6M home opening, $61.5M home complete), King Richard ($5.4M home opening, $15.1M home complete), House of Gucci ($14.4M home opening, $53.8M home complete), and—from Columbia, a division of Sony—Devotion ($5.9M home opening, $20.5M home complete). Of these, solely King Richard got here out earlier than Thanksgiving. If Here is to keep a sizeable viewers by way of that vacation, its greatest competitors for grownup audiences will possible be Gladiator II (November 22), although extra family-friendly titles like Wicked Part 1 (Universal), Red One (Amazon/MGM), and Moana 2 (Disney) may additionally siphon audiences away.
Tracking Updates [as of 10/4]
| Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
| 10/4/24 | Joker: Folie a Deux | $50 – $60M | Warner Bros. |
| 10/11/24 | Terrifier 3 | $4 – $8M | Iconic Events |
| 10/11/24 | Saturday Night (WIDE) | $10 – $15M | Sony |
| 10/18/24 | Smile 2 | $20 – $40M | Paramount Pictures |
| 10/25/24 | Venom: The Last Dance | $70 – $100M | Sony/Columbia |
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