Tuesday, September 17 2024
Morning Report
There are some issues that went fallacious with the forecast this week. That storm that landed in South Carolina yesterday was by no means named. It had 50 mph winds at its peak and introduced super rainfall and flooding to the Southeast coast. Parts of North Carolina obtained OVER 18 inches of rainfall from this method.
Rainfall Total Past 72 Hours Ending Tuesday Morning
However, it by no means grew to become a full-fledged tropical storm! That would require convection (sustained storms) wrapped across the heart. Instead, it was an everyday Low Pressure with a cool and heat aspect/fronts. The distinction was how a lot moisture it was ready to maintain AND how the remaining circulation would behave when arriving north in the course of the week. This proves a storm doesn't want a reputation to do injury and a few non-tropical storms might be worse.
The American GFS Model has it falling aside, and that appears like the higher resolution. The European ECMWF Model was extra strong in holding it along with affect into the weekend. That doesn't look probably now, and I used to be fallacious to put extra emphasis on that. Neither mannequin is 100% right, however there does appear to be a winner right here.
The Euro has an ongoing excellent popularity, however the GFS upgrades do seem to have labored this time. I'll deal with this going ahead as it might be helpful into the winter.
Coastal Flood Advisory
The prolonged Easterly Wind AND immediately’s Full Supermoon will maintain the water ranges up. Flooding is anticipated in the course of the excessive tides.
Annapolis High Tides:
- Today: 4:57 PM ; 5:18 PM
- Wednesday: 5:43 AM; 6:12 PM
Morning Surface Weather
The mixture of High Pressure in New England and the outdated Storm within the Southeast US will improve the wind from an Easterly Direction. This brings in cooler, damp air, plus increased water on the seashores and within the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories are in place.
We have a Full Supermoon immediately, which is able to improve the excessive tide and flooding potential.
The outdated storm is much less potent however nonetheless increasing the rain to the north. Showers will arrive later immediately and tonight.
WINDY INTERACTIVE WIDGET
Wind Forecast
Winds might be flowing from the East to Northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Afternoon Snapshot
Afternoon Temperatures
Rain Forecast 4 PM Tue to 6 AM Wed
Showers arrive in to central Maryland this night with bands of heavier rain and perhaps T’storm in a single day.
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY September 17
Sunrise at 6:50 AM
Sunset at 7:11 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 59ºF
Record 44ºF in 1984
Normal High in Baltimore: 79ºF
Record 97ºF 1991
TODAY: SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS
Four Supermoons In A Row
See extra concerning the 4 Supermoons Through November right here:
WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
Forecast Wednesday Morning Through Friday
Comparing the European ECMWF and American GFS Model
I'll acknowledge my mistake. I leaned closely on the European Model which had the storm stronger and lasting longer. The GFS Model had damaged up the storm and lowered the rain totals just a few days in the past. It is now trying like it might be the higher mannequin this time.
ECMWF Model Forecast Animation
More widespread rain within the morning. Then breaking apart, for a dryer Thursday. This mannequin continues to be attempting to carry a coastal Low again (retrograding) Friday for Delmarva.
GFS Model Forecast Animation
Heavier rain alongside the coast whereas breaking apart the rain throughout inland areas. Still displaying scattered showers late Wednesday and Thursday.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL: Through The Weekend
European ECMWF Model
This product nonetheless has extra rain.
American GFS Model
This product continues to be considerably decrease and appears just like the winner this time. This is value remembering going ahead by the season and into winter.
7 Day Forecast
It seems to be like this storm is falling aside with much less affect. That will permit the dry and cooler air to construct in sooner.
If You Missed It
Click right here to see: NOAA Released Its Most Aggressive Hurricane Season Forecast
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I'm conscious there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional different glitches. I take accountability for my errors and even the pc glitches I'll miss. I've made just a few public statements over time, however in case you are new right here, you will have missed it: I've dyslexia and discovered throughout my second yr at Cornell University. It didn’t cease me from getting my meteorology diploma and being the primary to get the AMS CBM within the Baltimore/Washington area.
One of my professors advised me that I had made it that far with out understanding and to not let or not it's a crutch going ahead. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was completely right! I do miss my errors in my very own proofreading. The autocorrect spell verify on my pc generally does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make errors in forecasting. No one is ideal at predicting the long run. All of the maps and data are correct. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can verify my work whereas writing and to have it prepared to ship out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me preserve this website. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is out there. That might be AFTER you learn this. I settle for this and maybe proves what you learn is de facto from me… It’s a part of my attraction. #FITF
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