Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Last week, school soccer reminded us that we do not want an enormous slate of heavyweight matchups to have an awfully good time. The essential characters ended up being Vanderbilt, Cal and Arkansas, and it might need been essentially the most entertaining and impactful week of the season thus far.
This week, now we have an enormous slate of heavyweight matchups. That's good too. We've bought No. 2 vs. No. 3 in Eugene and a significant alternative for Oregon to start proving its top-five potential. We've bought the primary SEC version of the Red River Rivalry. We've bought No. 9 at No. 13 in Baton Rouge, with two groups seeking to cost again into the SEC race (or at the least not disappear from it fully). We've bought a foursome of video games that might both convey readability to or utterly blow up the Big 12 race. We've bought just a few extra unranked-versus-top-10 video games that we hope will convey one other spherical of chaos. And at night time, we get Idaho-Montana State! That guidelines too!
We are one way or the other charging towards the halfway level of the season. I do not know the way that is attainable, however here is every part you want to observe throughout a large Week 7. (All occasions are Eastern, and all traces are from ESPN BET.)
Jump to a bit:
Ohio State-Oregon | Texas-Oklahoma
Ole Miss-LSU
Big 12 showdowns | Upset alerts
Chaos superfecta | Week 7 playlist
The massive one in Eugene
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon (7:30 p.m., NBC)
We've seen Washington at Rutgers and Michigan State at Oregon on Friday nights. We've seen Indiana at UCLA, Wisconsin at USC and USC at Minnesota. Some of these have really been good video games, however when the Big Ten formally introduced in 4 of the Pac-12's best soccer applications this season, it was clear what the largest new sport on the marquee could be in 2024. And on Saturday night we get to see it.
Ohio State visits Oregon in search of a take a look at. The Buckeyes have gained 5 video games by a mean of 46-7, and whereas they've performed just one staff higher than seventy fifth in SP+, they beat that staff (No. 29 Iowa) by 28 factors final week. Their statistical resume is almost flawless: They're fifth in factors per drive and first in factors allowed, they rank extremely in almost each class that issues, and even within the one the place they do not — the protection has allowed touchdowns on 60% of pink zone journeys, 72nd nationally — it is a pattern dimension subject (they've confronted solely 5 pink zone journeys, fewest within the nation). Everything has labored as meant. Running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are averaging 7.9 yards per carry, receiver Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are averaging 12.8 yards per goal, and the protection is first in defensive SP+.
Oregon started the season proper subsequent to the Buckeyes within the rankings and has solely type of regarded the half. The Ducks are within the high 10 in each offense success charge* (ninth) and success charge allowed (seventh). They're principally unbelievable in opposition to the move, their offense is environment friendly through each the run (eleventh in dashing success charge) and move (first in completion charge).
(* Success charge: how continuously you are gaining 50% of essential yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Now could be a good time to recollect methods to steal straightforward yards, nonetheless. Last yr's offense was masterful at it.
With a gradual eating regimen of fast sideline passes, Oregon was ruthlessly environment friendly final yr. On passes at or behind the road, the Ducks engineered a 53% success charge and gained optimistic yardage 79% of the time. They stole free, straightforward yards all day, and it arrange beautiful alternatives downfield.
This yr these numbers are extra mortal: 47% success charge and 71% optimistic yardage on passes at or behind the road. The free yards aren't as accessible, particularly for star Tez Johnson, who had a 52-yard landing catch in opposition to UCLA however has in any other case averaged simply 8.2 yards per catch.
It's time for Oregon's stars to shine. Running again Jordan James lastly broke off a 41-yard run final week, however Noah Whittington is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Traeshon Holden and tight finish Terrance Ferguson are every averaging greater than 14 yards per catch, however Johnson has been a mere possession man, and Evan Stewart is at 11.4 per catch. To maintain quarterback Dillon Gabriel from getting swarmed within the pocket by Jack Sawyer and an ideal Buckeyes entrance, these guys must win some main battles.
The Ducks ought to take a look at the hell out of Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, at the least. End Jordan Burch and sort out Derrick Harmon have mixed for 27 pressures and eight sacks in 5 video games, and Washington switch Jabbar Muhammad has been an ideal No. 1 nook, permitting 6-for-18 passing with seven breakups and just one completion of 20-plus yards. He hasn't confronted Smith and Egbuka but, clearly, however Oregon has the athletes to compete on protection. Howard has completed effectively in changing Kyle McCord, however these are the video games that matter for Ohio State. Is he able to look the half in a giant sport? Is Oregon?
Current line: Buckeyes -3 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 2.9 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 5.2
Red River, SEC version
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
For the primary time since 2008 — Texas' basic 45-35 comeback win over top-ranked Oklahoma — the Red River Rivalry entails a No. 1 staff. Since 1956, we have seen No. 1 on this sport 10 occasions; in seven of these situations, the favourite rolled by a mean of 29 factors, however on three different events (1963, 2008 and a controversial 1984 tie), the underdog ruined some plans. Red River finally ends up being both an announcement by or an indictment of No. 1.
Steve Sarkisian's top-ranked Longhorns have not given us a lot motive for doubt. Their resume is almost equivalent to Ohio State's: They've confronted just one opponent higher than 73rd in SP+, however they've gained video games by a mean of 45-7. And they've completed it regardless of being with out beginning quarterback Quinn Ewers for mainly half the season. They've cut up between Ewers and backup Arch Manning, however they're nonetheless eighth in factors per drive and seventh in success charge. The passing sport runs by way of 4 essential receivers — wideouts Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden and Ryan Wingo and tight finish Gunnar Helm — who've mixed to catch 65 of 82 passes (79%) for 1,054 yards and 9 TDs. The run sport would not actually go wherever, nevertheless it retains the Horns on schedule, and after they fall behind the sticks, it is wonderful: They're first in passing downs success charge.
Ewers is anticipated to return to the lineup, which, contemplating his wonderful monitor document in opposition to Oklahoma, is an effective factor. But he'll be going through a a lot totally different Sooners protection. OU is eighth in factors allowed per drive — the Sooners are giving up nearly no explosive performs, they're dominating in opposition to the run, and they're lighting up quarterbacks (fourth in sack charge) and forcing hundreds of turnovers (13, fourth nationally). Defensive finish R Mason Thomas was sensible late within the win over Auburn, and security Robert Spears-Jennings is great in opposition to each run and move.
An OU upset bid goes to must undergo the protection. The offense nonetheless is not providing a lot.
Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. began his first sport in opposition to Auburn two weeks in the past, changing Jackson Arnold, and the Sooners produced only a 27.7% success charge (which might rank final nationally for all the season) and gained at the least 10 yards on simply 14.9% of snaps (which might rank 126th). One of these massive positive aspects was an early, 48-yard Hawkins landing run; one other was a 60-yard bomb to J.J. Hester, which arrange a late TD. This all saved the Sooners shut sufficient that Kip Lewis' 63-yard pick-six delivered a comeback win, nevertheless it wasn't precisely a sustainable recipe for achievement. The offensive line has been the defining subject for Oklahoma, however mainly each main receiver is banged up, together with Deion Burks, the one man who's topped even 200 receiving yards.
Funky issues can occur in a rivalry sport — hey, funky issues occurred the final time we noticed OU — however the Sooners' protection goes to must drive an unlimited quantity of errors. The offense simply would not have that many good performs in it.
Current line: Horns -14.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 14.5 | FPI projection: Horns by 15.8
Ole Miss vs. Death Valley
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
In 1999, David Cutcliffe's first Ole Miss staff overcame three first-half turnovers and an early deficit to pummel Gerry DiNardo's final LSU staff 42-23 behind a mixed 175 dashing yards from Deuce McAllister and Joe Gunn. True freshman Eli Manning was redshirting on the sideline.
That's the one time since at the least 1978 that Ole Miss gained as a favourite in Baton Rouge. Granted, it has had solely 4 alternatives in that span — the others: 1993, 2014 and 2020 — however most of the time, after they've had the prospect to win at Death Valley, they've did not take benefit.
Lane Kiffin's Rebels are on a bit of a redemption tour after their stunning loss to Kentucky two weeks in the past. LSU, in the meantime, was off final week after its most full efficiency of the season, a 42-10 destruction of a beforehand smoking-hot South Alabama.
The Kentucky sport was a take a look at of Ole Miss' offense (one which it did not precisely move), however this one ought to take a look at the protection extra. LSU's protection has improved of late, overachieving in opposition to SP+ projections for 2 straight video games and shifting into the highest 10 in havoc charge (tackles for loss, passes defended and pressured fumbles per play). But the Tigers are nonetheless 124th in passing success charge allowed, whereas Jaxson Dart and the Ole Miss offense rank second in the identical class. Leading receiver Tre Harris, who torched LSU final yr, is listed as questionable, although.
Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is finishing 70% of his passes whereas taking nearly no contact in any respect. He has bought his possession guys (tight finish Mason Taylor, receiver Zavion Thomas, freshman working again Caden Durham) and his big-play guys (receivers Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson), plus an in-between man (CJ Daniels). He would not have a lot of a run sport, although. LSU ranks sixty fourth in yards per carry, not together with sacks, and nobody has seized management of the No. 1 RB job. Or at the least, they hadn't till Durham rushed for 128 yards in seven carries in opposition to USA. He has simply offered essentially the most upside on the place.
Ole Miss has but to permit greater than 20 factors in a sport and ranks first in success charge allowed and third in factors allowed per drive. The Rebels rank extremely in each sack charge (seventh) and stuff charge (sixth), sort out Walter Nolen is on tempo for double-digit TFLs, move rushers Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen (if wholesome) are sensible, and Trey Amos is essentially the most energetic nook LSU has confronted. But that is the largest take a look at the Rebels protection has confronted.
Current line: Rebels -3.5 (up from -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 6.2 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.7
The Big 12's massive (and probably VERY messy) week
The Big 12's 5 preseason favorites within the convention media ballot (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona) have began a mixed 3-9 in league play. Five different groups (Texas Tech, BYU, Iowa State, Colorado and West Virginia), three of whom suffered disappointing nonconference losses, are a mixed 11-0. SP+ presently tasks two groups from that former batch (Utah and Okay-State) and three from the latter (ISU, BYU and WVU) because the 5 more than likely champions.
In different phrases, the Big 12 race might find yourself each bit as messy as we had hoped. And among the many 10 groups listed above, eight are pairing off this weekend. We may find yourself with a brand new set of seemingly favorites, and we would find yourself with even much less readability than earlier than. I'm hoping for the latter.
No. 16 Utah at Arizona State (Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Utah is as soon as once more spending each second making us marvel if or when injured QB Cam Rising will return. He may this week! Or not! Regardless, the Utes will face RB Cam Skattebo and a bodily Arizona State staff that has already gained three tight video games however one way or the other stinks within the pink zone on each offense (102nd in pink zone TD charge) and protection (116th). Utah might be by far the perfect protection the Sun Devils have confronted, however the Utes' offense simply is not the identical with out Rising.
Current line: Utah -4 | SP+ projection: Utah by 6.5 | FPI projection: Utah by 0.5
Arizona at No. 14 BYU (4 p.m., Fox)
One-time WAC rivals, these groups have performed solely six occasions since 1977, however they may have essentially the most pivotal sport in a pivotal week. BYU has already gained three street video games and overwhelmed two SP+ top-25 groups (SMU and Kansas State) because of a resurgent protection and well timed contributions from quarterback Jake Retzlaff. QB Noah Fifita and Arizona, in the meantime, have underachieved in each sport … besides in a wonderful street win over Utah that saved their Big 12 title desires alive.
Current line: BYU -4 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.4 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.8
No. 11 Iowa State at West Virginia (8 p.m., Fox)
Entering 2021 with top-10 ambitions, Matt Campbell's ISU staff as an alternative fell into an almost three-year funk, however the Cyclones might reenter the highest 10 in the event that they survive Morgantown unbeaten. West Virginia started the season with discouraging losses to previous rivals Penn State and Pitt however outlasted Kansas, then blew out Oklahoma State final week. The Mountaineers have rediscovered their bodily identification behind backs CJ Donaldson Jr. and Jahiem White, and QB Garrett Greene is making massive performs once more.
Current line: ISU -3 | SP+ projection: ISU by 3.0 | FPI projection: ISU by 1.7
No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Following perhaps their most full win of the Deion Sanders period, a 48-21 dismantling of UCF, Travis Hunter and the Buffaloes bought per week off to relaxation up for the largest sport of the yr. Kansas State hasn't been nice on the street, however sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson is almost on tempo for a 2,500/1,000 season (passing yards/dashing yards), and an all-or-nothing protection ought to be capable of harass Shedeur Sanders. We'll simply must see what number of “alls” the Wildcats permit.
Current line: Okay-State -4.5 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: Okay-State by 8.7 | FPI projection: Okay-State by 0.8
This week's massive upset?
So many of us stay so completely enamored with the 2007 season and its abject chaos that we instantly evaluate something messy in a given season to the gold normal. And after final weekend, we have now seen unranked groups beat top-10 opponents eight occasions this season, just one off the tempo set by 2007 after six weeks.
The 2007 season, nonetheless, was a chaos marathon, not a chaos dash. In Week 7 that yr, we noticed No. 17 Kentucky beat No. 1 LSU whereas unranked Oregon State took down No. 2 Cal. So to maintain tempo, we'd like one other massive canine to go down. (We may also want No. 18 to win in Dallas.)
We'll relegate Mississippi State-Georgia to Week 7 Playlist standing as a result of of the almost five-touchdown unfold, however 4 different unranked-versus-top-10 matchups are at the least barely intriguing.
No. 4 Penn State at USC (3:30 p.m., CBS)
We begin with an A-grade helmet sport — and, per the chances, by far the more than likely upset of the bunch. USC has already overwhelmed one top-15 staff this season (LSU) however is unranked as a result of of losses to bodily, plodding Michigan and Minnesota groups. To date, Penn State has mainly been a greater Minnesota, leaning on wonderful effectivity and big-play prevention however not at all times making its life straightforward with massive performs and straightforward factors. This one might come right down to which high-efficiency passing sport produces extra chunk performs. For all of USC's dynamic athletes, the Trojans do not make many of these both, and they're really right down to 52nd in total factors per drive. But PSU will nonetheless must play effectively right here.
Current line: PSU -4.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: PSU by 8.7 | FPI projection: USC by 0.7
Florida at No. 8 Tennessee (7 p.m., ESPN)
Last week I declared that Arkansas was athletic and unstable sufficient to beat somebody actually good, and the Razorbacks instantly upset Tennessee. Florida has some of the identical unstable qualities — explosive passing sport (particularly with receiver Eugene Wilson III coming back from harm), wonderful move rush on passing downs — however the Gators are each dreadfully inefficient on protection and liable to crippling breakdowns when their move rush would not get dwelling. Plus, this sport's in Knoxville. This is an sometimes bizarre collection, however the Vols seemingly will bounce again, even with a banged-up receiving corps.
Current line: Vols -15.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 11.2 | FPI projection: Vols by 17.2
No. 10 Clemson at Wake Forest (midday, ESPN)
The final time Wake beat Clemson, it was a 12-7 win for Jim Grobe's Demon Deacons over Tommy Bowden's Tigers in 2008. (So near 2007!) The Deacs are beginning to discover traction offensively, however they appear utterly incapable of knocking opposing offenses off schedule. If you quit 71 mixed factors to Louisiana and NC State, you most likely aren't beating Clemson.
Current line: Clemson -20 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 15.0 | FPI projection: Clemson by 17.5
South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama (midday, ABC/ESPN+)
Safe to say, with the epic backlash his staff confronted following final week's loss to Vandy, Kalen DeBoer now formally is aware of what it is prefer to be Alabama's head coach.
The name everybody was ready for… Legend has spoken https://t.co/3yBfrHCfBZ pic.twitter.com/mucC4qm8Mh
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) October 7, 2024
The Tide will nearly definitely reply effectively sufficient to cruise on this one, however South Carolina's move rush can tee off in case you're not sharp sufficient to keep away from apparent move conditions. This will take a look at Bama's focus, at the least.
Current line: Bama -21 | SP+ projection: Bama by 19.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 20.9
Week 7 chaos superfecta
We're again, child! Each week, I exploit SP+ win chances as an try and will chaos into existence — I have a look at 4 fastidiously chosen video games with fairly massive level spreads and mash them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. After whiffing for the primary time in Week 5, we charged again to attain a giant one in Arkansas over Tennessee in Week 6. (Vandy over Alabama was too massive for me to even take into account.) That makes us 5-for-6 on the season.
If you learn the final part of this preview, I believe you understand which 4 video games I'm going to decide on this week. SP+ says that there is solely a 40% probability that Alabama (89% over South Carolina), Clemson (83% over Wake Forest), Tennessee (76% over Florida) and Penn State (71% over USC) all win. One of these video games might be our 2007 Oregon State-Cal.
Week 7 playlist
Here are some extra video games it's best to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.
Friday night
Northwestern at Maryland (8 p.m., Fox). Indiana's final two victims — Maryland misplaced in Bloomington in Week 5, Northwestern at dwelling in Week 6 — meet to find out which staff nonetheless has bowl hopes and which most likely would not. The Terrapins are favored as a result of of an environment friendly passing sport and turnover-hungry protection (and extra basic upside), however they're additionally 1-3 in opposition to the Wildcats since becoming a member of the Big Ten.
Current line: Maryland -10.5 | SP+ projection: Maryland by 12.1 | FPI projection: Maryland by 17.1
Early Saturday
Washington at Iowa (midday, Fox). I actually thought we might be extra body-clock observant in our Big Ten kickoff occasions, however nope! UCLA kicked off at 9 a.m. PT final week, and Washington is doing it this week. This sport has one of the oddest matchups you will see: Washington's in any other case environment friendly offense ranks 107th in pink zone TD charge, and Iowa's in any other case superior protection ranks 134th in pink zone TD charge allowed. If the Huskies rating TDs after they get the prospect, an upset is kind of possible.
Current line: Iowa -3 | SP+ projection: Washington by 0.4 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.9
Wisconsin at Rutgers (midday, BTN). After a irritating 2-2 begin, Luke Fickell's Wisconsin took huge frustration out on depressing Purdue final week in a 52-6 win. Rutgers, in the meantime, is in search of a rebound after letting a attainable upset at Nebraska slip by way of its fingers final week. With a win, Rutgers might maintain hope alive for a 9-3 or so season whereas doing huge harm to the Badgers' bowl hopes.
Current line: Rutgers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rutgers by 1.8 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 4.0
Georgia Tech at North Carolina (midday, The CW). North Carolina must get out of city. The Tar Heels have barely overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections in two street video games however are underachieving by 13.1 factors per sport at dwelling. SP+ nonetheless appears to have religion; I do not suppose I do. Georgia Tech is hard and bodily and moderately prone to hand UNC a fourth straight loss.
Current line: Jackets -5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 1.4 | FPI projection: Jackets by 2.4
No. 21 Missouri at UMass (midday, ESPN2). The weirdest sport of the week by far. After no-showing at Texas A&M final week, Eliah Drinkwitz's Tigers search for redemption within the foliage of Amherst, of all locations. UMass is aggressive and harmful in opposition to the move — this can be a Don Brown staff, in any case — however would not seem to have a lot else to supply.
Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 30.9 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 26.8
Saturday afternoon
Cal at No. 22 Pitt (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Cal got here achingly near a season-altering upset in its first ACC dwelling sport; now the Golden Bears, 1-2 in one-score finishes, go to Heinz Field (OK, Acrisure Stadium) to face quarterback Eli Holstein and 2024's fourth-quarter masters. Unbeaten Pitt's scoring margin this yr is plus-102 total: plus-39 within the first three quarters and plus-63 within the fourth.
Current line: Pitt -3 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 6.4 | FPI projection: Pitt by 7.1
Memphis at USF (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This one was moved from Friday night time on account of Hurricane Milton. Memphis' season briefly started to crumble in latest weeks — the Tigers misplaced to Navy and underachieved drastically in opposition to Middle Tennessee State, and went from being perhaps the Group of 5's CFP autobid front-runners to the No. 4 favourite to win the AAC. Can they cost again up the contenders checklist after a much-needed bye week? Can USF rebound after shedding to Miami and Tulane by a mixed 70 factors? (And is QB Byrum Brown wholesome sufficient to go?)
Current line: Memphis -7 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 10.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 4.7
Louisville at Virginia (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Quietly, Virginia has begun the season 4-1; after back-to-back three-win seasons, the Cavaliers now have a 71% probability of bowling, per SP+. Of course, they have not but confronted an SP+ top-40 staff, and now they will play six of their final seven video games. Louisville's hopes of an ACC title and/or CFP bid took an almost deadly blow with final week's loss to SMU, however the Cardinals ought to nonetheless have too many weapons on this one.
Current line: Louisville -7.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 6.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 10.7
Stanford at No. 11 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Before embarking on a pair of tough street journeys — to Georgia Tech in Week 8, then to East Rutherford, New Jersey, to face unbeaten Navy — Notre Dame seemingly will get to ease out of its bye week with a straightforward dwelling sport in opposition to Stanford. The Cardinal have been perky and attention-grabbing just a few weeks in the past, however the backside is shortly dropping out for an offense that was already struggling with QB Ashton Daniels and collapsed with out him final week.
Current line: Irish -23 | SP+ projection: Irish by 25.9 | FPI projection: Irish by 28.6
Mississippi State at No. 5 Georgia (4:15 p.m., SECN). Hey, if Vanderbilt can beat Alabama for the primary time in 40 years, why could not Mississippi State beat UGA for the primary time in 14? Well, primarily as a result of MSU has been a lot worse than Vandy this yr. The Bulldogs sometimes produce massive move performs, however the protection ranks 134th in success charge allowed and 123rd in factors allowed per drive. This could be, by just a few orders of magnitude, an even bigger upset than Vandy's.
Current line: Georgia -33.5 | SP+ projection: Georgia by 30.1 | FPI projection: Georgia by 26.9
Purdue at No. 23 Illinois (3:30 p.m., FS1). There's formally a morbid curiosity to watching Purdue at this level. The Boilermakers are the lowest-ranked power-conference staff, per SP+, and they now have a 29% probability of ending 1-11. Illinois, in the meantime, has a 42% probability of going 9-3 or higher. It would take a large sleepwalking job for the Illini to not cruise on this one.
Current line: Illini -22.5 (up from -19.5) | SP+ projection: Illini by 15.6 | FPI projection: Illini by 21.9
Saturday night
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (7:45 p.m., SECN). The purveyor of the largest upset of Week 5 (UK over Ole Miss) in opposition to the purveyor of the largest upset of the season (Vandy over Bama). This one has turn into much more attention-grabbing than a matchup of unranked 3-2 groups would usually be. Can Diego Pavia and an environment friendly Vandy offense transfer the ball on a stout UK protection? Will Kentucky, scorer of 38 complete factors in opposition to three SEC foes, ever be capable of create chunk performs and straightforward factors?
Current line: Kentucky -13.5 | SP+ projection: Kentucky by 14.3 | FPI projection: Kentucky by 7.0
Washington State at Fresno State (7 p.m., FS1). These future Pac-12 rivals are at pivot factors following bye weeks. Wazzu is coming off its first loss, at Boise State, however nonetheless has a 58% probability of going 10-2 or higher, per SP+. Fresno State, in the meantime, bought crushed in a chastening, 45-point loss to UNLV however nonetheless boasts standout expertise within the passing sport and move protection. Who will get the second half of their season (kind of) off on the fitting foot?
Current line: Wazzu -3.5 | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 6.2 | FPI projection: Wazzu by 4.4
Minnesota at UCLA (9 p.m., BTN). These groups are a mixed 4-7, however Minnesota is trending effectively after a near-upset of Michigan and an exciting late win over USC final week. UCLA is coming off most likely its finest efficiency of the season; that is a low bar, however the Bruins confirmed ball-control potential and respectable line of defense play in opposition to Penn State. These groups play at ridiculously sluggish tempos, so count on a couple of 2.5-hour sport with eight possessions every. (That's solely a slight exaggeration.)
Current line: Minnesota -5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.1 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 3.8
Late Saturday
No. 17 Boise State at Hawai'i (11 p.m., CBSSN). Hawai'i might current an attention-grabbing take a look at for BSU. The Rainbow Warriors rank fifth in success charge allowed and not often quit enormous gashes, however additionally they have not seen Boise's Ashton Jeanty, aka the human massive play, but. Can Jeanty, with his 10.9 yards per carry, maintain burnishing his Heisman cred and stay on tempo for two,500-plus yards? And can the Broncos sustain their potential CFP tempo?
Current line: BSU -21 | SP+ projection: BSU by 16.2 | FPI projection: BSU by 18.3
Smaller-school showcase
Let's as soon as once more save a shout-out for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. Here are three video games it's best to monitor. It's an enormous week on the Division III degree, with three ranked-versus-ranked matchups and, on paper, absolute toss-up video games. I'm together with two right here — the third is No. 10 Carnegie Mellon at No. 7 Grove City — alongside with a late-night essential occasion.
D3: No. 5 Wisconsin-River Falls at No. 11 Wisconsin-Platteville (2 p.m., local streaming). We begin by going again to Wisconsin, the place in a single of final week's showcase video games, Wisconsin-Platteville overcame a 15-point deficit and beat No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse in extra time. Now the surprisingly superior Pioneers welcome unbeaten UWRF for homecoming in Platteville. The WIAC has 5 ranked groups and may be establishing for the only wildest convention race in school soccer. SP+ projection: UWP by 0.4
D3: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons at No. 17 Mary Hardin-Baylor (2 p.m., local streaming). UMHB, the nationwide champ in 2016 (later vacated), 2018 and 2021, suffered by way of a 6-6 stretch from late 2022 by way of the primary sport of this season. But the Crusaders have since gained three in a row, taking down Wisconsin-Whitewater on the street within the course of. Now comes Hardin-Simmons, winner of 28 of its previous 32 video games, for homecoming in Belton. SP+ projection: Hardin-Simmons by 0.9
FCS: No. 3 Montana State at No. 8 Idaho (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Another week, one other enormous Idaho sport. The Vandals have performed two FBS opponents and 4 ranked FCS foes, and they are a strong 4-2 regardless of accidents to 2 quarterbacks. But now comes the largest take a look at since their season opener in opposition to Oregon. Montana State is 6-0 and has overwhelmed 5 overmatched FCS foes by a mean of 43-16. The Bobcats' run sport is ridiculous, and we must always see one other crowd of 20,000-plus for this ESPN2 showcase sport. You will not remorse tuning in. SP+ projection: MSU by 14.3.
