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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Baseball's playoffs are at all times unpredictable — simply look again to final season when two wild-card groups confronted off within the World Series — however they've by no means been extra unpredictable than this season.
For the primary time in a full season since 2014, it seems no crew will win 100 video games. The two finest groups because the All-Star break have not been any of the present division leaders however the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves might win it all — or miss the playoffs altogether, since they're battling for the ultimate wild-card spot within the National League. The Kansas City Royals have the possibility to grow to be the primary crew to go from 100 losses to World Series champs in consecutive seasons.
With two weeks to go within the 2024 MLB common season, let's take inventory of the 13 groups at the moment in finest place to make the playoffs in a particular version of Real or Not. We're breaking the groups into two teams: the favorites (based mostly on confirmed success and 2024 document) and the spoilers. For the favorites, we'll take a look at what challenge would possibly forestall them from winning the World Series; for the spoilers, we'll take a look at why they can win it all. Then we'll make a ultimate verdict on each crew's final likelihood in October.
Let's begin with the most effective crew within the majors.
THE FAVORITES
Real or Not: The Phillies' offense will as soon as once more fail to click on for the whole thing of October.
The Phillies will enter this postseason in a special place than the previous two: as NL East champions for the primary time since 2011, and maybe as the general favourite. After making it all the best way to the World Series in 2022 and Game 7 of the National League Championship Series in 2023, this can be a higher Phillies crew. That's primarily as a result of a deeper pitching employees, each within the rotation with the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez and within the bullpen with the addition of nearer Carlos Estevez on the commerce deadline.
On offense, it's the identical forged of large names. In 2022, that group swept the St. Louis Cardinals within the wild-card sequence, upset the Braves within the NL Division Series and beat the Padres within the NLCS earlier than taking a 2-1 lead over the Astros within the World Series. Through these 14 postseason video games, the Phillies had slugged 22 dwelling runs and averaged 5.1 runs per sport. In Game 4 of the World Series, the Astros spun a mixed no-hitter. The Phillies scored two runs in Game 5 and one run in Game 6. They hit .101 over these ultimate three losses.
Last season, they beat the Miami Marlins within the wild card, as soon as once more upset the Braves within the division sequence and have been up 3-2 on the Diamondbacks within the NLCS when heading again dwelling for Game 6. They misplaced 5-1 and 4-2 the ultimate two video games of the sequence because the offense stumbled badly once more on the improper time. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been terrific the previous two postseasons, each hitting 11 dwelling runs in 30 video games, with Harper posting a 1.137 OPS and Schwarber a .987. Those two might be streaky, nonetheless, so the Phillies will want extra from the underside of the order. Alec Bohm has hit .231 with two dwelling runs over these 30 playoff video games; Bryson Stott has hit .189 with a .552 OPS; Johan Rojas went 4-for-43 with out an RBI final 12 months; Nick Castellanos was 1-for-24 within the NLCS and went hitless the ultimate six video games. They'll want a pair from that group to step up all the best way via the World Series.
Verdict: Not Real. I really like Zack Wheeler and his confirmed big-game outcomes because the ace. I really like the bullpen. I really like Harper's capability to supply in large moments. And I really like the Phillies' offense simply sufficient to suppose this is likely to be their 12 months. The odd factor about these postseason-ending losses to Houston and Arizona is that they each got here at dwelling, however the Phillies have had an enormous home-field benefit within the common season this 12 months. Hold it collectively at dwelling in October in entrance of these passionate followers and so they can hoist their first World Series trophy since 2008.
Real or Not: Pitching accidents will forestall the Dodgers from winning the World Series.
Well … and I do know Dodgers followers will affirm this with unhappy sighs … it's wanting lots like final season, when the Dodgers received 100 video games solely to enter the postseason with so many accidents within the rotation that they needed to begin Clayton Kershaw, who had a sore shoulder, and Lance Lynn, who had led the majors in dwelling runs allowed. No matter what number of pitchers they signal or commerce for, regardless of what number of promising starters they name up, the Dodgers simply have not been in a position to get their rotation the place they want it for October the previous few postseasons.
On Saturday, supervisor Dave Roberts introduced that it was “highly unlikely” that Tyler Glasnow, who has a proper elbow sprain, would pitch once more this season. Gavin Stone, who leads the crew in begins and innings, has been out since early September with shoulder irritation. Kershaw stays out with a toe damage. Roberts mentioned he did not “see how it's on the table” for Kershaw to return within the common season, so are you going to belief him in a playoff sport after not pitching in a month?
Let's see who that leaves:
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Jack Flaherty: Acquired on the commerce deadline from the Detroit Tigers in a deal that appears much more necessary now than it did then.
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto: He made his first begin since June final week and pitched effectively with eight strikeouts in 4 innings, after which adopted that up with 4 scoreless innings on Monday.
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Walker Buehler: He has one win in 13 begins and a 5.95 ERA.
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Bobby Miller: I do not know what's occurred to him after a wonderful rookie season in 2023, however he has an 8.17 ERA.
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Landon Knack: He has had 10 begins scattered all through the season, together with two in September by which he allowed seven runs in eight innings.
It's a large number. Heck, Roberts did not even rule out the chance of Shohei Ohtani returning to pitch sooner or later in October, though given the logistics of his DH duties, it could be tough to make use of him out of the bullpen and have him heat up midgame.
Verdict: Real. No matter what, even when Stone and Kershaw get wholesome, the Dodgers are going to must rely closely on the bullpen. And as Dodgers followers will inform you, making the proper bullpen choices hasn't precisely been a power of Roberts all through his postseason profession — and this bullpen hasn't been as dominant within the common season as another latest Dodgers bullpens (the 2024 pen is eleventh within the majors in ERA because the All-Star break). All this places strain on an offense that did not present up final October, scoring two runs in each of the three losses to Arizona. A key man to observe there: Mookie Betts, who has hit .079 with one RBI his previous 10 postseason video games.
Real or Not: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto do not have sufficient assist in the lineup for a playoff run.
Since the expanded playoffs started in 1995, 30 groups that made the playoffs have had no less than two hitters with 400 plate appearances and a 150 OPS+ (three of these groups had three hitters). Using estimated runs created, we are able to decide what share of the crew's total runs scored these prime two hitters have been accountable for. Given their numbers, it's not shocking that Judge and Soto put the Yankees in a category of their very own. On common, the highest two hitters for these 30 groups created 30.7% of the offense; Judge and Soto, in the meantime, have created about 40.6% of the Yankees' offense. Only three different duos have been even above 34%: the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers at 37.9% (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder); the 2012 Tigers at 36.2% (Miguel Cabrera, Fielder); and the 2004 Cardinals at 35.2% (Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds).
So, the Yankees are definitely distinctive to rely a lot on two hitters. But does it imply something? They have nonetheless scored essentially the most runs within the American League and greater than any NL crew besides the Diamondbacks. For what it's value, 11 of the 30 groups talked about above reached the World Series and 5 of them received it (the 2011 Cardinals, 2012 San Francisco Giants, 2017 Houston Astros, 2018 Boston Red Sox and 2022 Astros). Of these champions, the Yankees in all probability most bear a resemblance to the 2018 Red Sox, who relied on Betts and J.D. Martinez for 34% of their offense.
Plus, the Yankees' offense now options Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has been excellent since coming over from the Marlins. Anthony Rizzo is again off the injured record, though we'll see if he has something left within the tank. Austin Wells and Giancarlo Stanton have been above-average hitters. Yes, it feels principally like a two-man lineup — however it's additionally possibly the most effective pair since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.
Verdict: Not Real. Judge and Soto are going to must hit, finish of story. They'll want any individual else to step up, similar to the Red Sox had Steve Pearce in 2018, however I see no purpose to conclude the dearth of lineup depth is the rationale the Yankees will not win. If Judge and Soto hit like they've within the common season, they will rating sufficient runs. Now, if you wish to carry up the nearer scenario or possibly Gerrit Cole deliberately strolling Rafael Devers with no one on base on Saturday, these potential points might be causes the Yankees do not win.
Milwaukee Brewers
Real or Not: The lineup lacks the star — or stars — wanted for a World Series run.
You might make the identical argument concerning the Brewers' beginning rotation, however let's deal with a lineup that ranks fourth within the NL in runs scored — however is with out Christian Yelich, who had been the crew's finest hitter earlier than occurring the IL in late July and ultimately opting for season-ending again surgical procedure. In Yelich's absence, William Contreras leads the crew with a 132 OPS+. When he will get scorching — like in April, when he hit .345, or in August, when he hit 9 dwelling runs with an OPS over 1.000 — he is a troublesome out. But he is not essentially a hitter opponents worry. Willy Adames and rookie Jackson Chourio are subsequent in manufacturing with Joey Ortiz the one different common with an OPS+ over 100.
Can you win and not using a large star within the lineup? If we set the minimal for “star” to a 130 OPS+, the reply is … in all probability not. The final World Series champ and not using a 130 OPS+ common in its lineup was the 1995 Braves — however that they had three pitchers named Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz (platoon outfielder Ryan Klesko fell slightly below our 400-plate look requirement and had a 158 OPS+). Most championship groups had no less than two such hitters, though final 12 months's Texas Rangers had only one in Corey Seager. Before that, you return to the 2013 Red Sox and David Ortiz with only one (and so they had seven regulars with an OPS+ between 110 and 130).
Verdict: Real. This is fairly robust proof, particularly if you additionally consider a rotation that does not strike out lots of batters. The Brewers have an incredible bullpen and catch the ball in addition to any crew, and I'd like to see them attain their first World Series since 1982 — however I'm undecided they'll rating sufficient runs over a number of sequence. On the opposite hand, they have been proving everybody improper all season.
Real or Not: The lack of beginning pitching depth and a dominant nearer will value the Orioles in October.
Baltimore's pitching by month:
April: 3.75 ERA (thirteenth in MLB)
May: 2.86 (third)
June: 3.73 (eighth)
July: 4.97 (twenty fourth)
August: 4.68 (twenty second)
September: 3.38 (ninth)
The pitching was actually good early on (maybe surprisingly so), however then a bunch of starters received damage and the employees has struggled the previous two-plus months. There has been a bit of uptick in September, however the O's schedule has included the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays and Tigers (no nice offenses in that group). My two questions right here:
1. Has Corbin Burnes discovered himself once more? He went 1-3 in August with a 7.36 ERA over 5 begins and wasn't lacking a ton of bats. He received hammered in three begins towards good lineups: the Red Sox, Astros and Dodgers (20 runs in 14⅔ innings). In three September begins, he has allowed 4 runs in 18 innings, together with seven scoreless innings on Saturday towards the Tigers. But these different two begins got here towards the White Sox and Rays. It's exhausting to examine a path to the World Series with out the very wonderful model of Burnes.
2. Do you belief Seranthony Dominguez because the nearer? He has changed Craig Kimbrel in that spot and is 8-for-8 in save chances, however he additionally has allowed six dwelling runs in 19⅓ innings with the Orioles (and 12 on the season). They've all been solo dwelling runs and two of them did give him a loss within the sport (however not a blown save since it was a tie sport). But I do not know — I'm undecided the belief is there but.
Verdict: Real. It definitely feels just like the Orioles peaked within the first half — however you can also make the identical argument concerning the Yankees. I'd really feel a bit of higher if Grayson Rodriguez have been again, however he is but to start out a rehab task. I'm additionally not fully satisfied Burnes is on the prime of his sport proper now. However, Zach Eflin has been wonderful with the Orioles (2.22 ERA in seven begins) and even Albert Suarez continues to supply good begins. In the tip, although, it's that ninth inning that appears problematic.
Houston Astros
Real or Not: The Astros do not have sufficient pitching outdoors of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Josh Hader.
The Astros received off to a foul begin as Valdez and Brown each struggled early on, however because the starting of July, Valdez ranks third within the majors in ERA (1.95) and Brown 14th (2.78). That seems like nearly as good of a 1-2 combo proper now as any playoff crew's, and Valdez has come up large earlier than within the postseason.
Hader is a bit more tough to guage. I can not point out Dominguez's gopher ball issues with out mentioning Hader's. He has allowed 12 dwelling runs in 64⅓ innings, though he has managed to blow simply two save alternatives all season (he does have seven losses, nonetheless). He's nonetheless exhausting to hit (.164 common allowed) and racks up the whiffs, with the second-highest strikeout charge within the majors amongst pitchers with 50 innings. Hader is definitely weak, however he is additionally a man with a dominant observe document.
The Astros' employees is not as deep as it was of their 2022 championship season, particularly within the bullpen, however this is not the identical employees we noticed the primary two months. The Astros are 8-0 in Yusei Kikuchi's begins since they acquired him on the deadline, and his enchancment seems legit: They've had him throw his slider about 20% extra usually whereas principally dumping a sluggish curve, and now he seems like a robust No. 3 starter. Other than a latest horrible outing in Cincinnati when he received knocked out within the first inning, rookie Spencer Arrighetti has been wonderful because the All-Star break, together with three double-digit strikeout video games. Ronel Blanco can begin or head to the bullpen to supply a multi-inning arm for the playoffs. And then there's Justin Verlander.
Verdict: Not Real. There is sufficient pitching right here to make one other title run — particularly since you possibly can compact your pitcher utilization within the postseason. Not to say these guys know the best way to win in October: The Astros have made a ridiculous seven straight ALCS appearances. The Verlander query, nonetheless, looms as maybe as large a choice as any supervisor will make this postseason — and it's a rookie supervisor in Joe Espada who has to make it. Do you dare bench a future Hall of Famer when he is not pitching like one of your prime 5 starters?
THE TEAMS PLAYING SPOILER
Real or Not: The bullpen is dominant sufficient to hold them to a title.
The Guardians' bullpen leads the majors with a 2.65 ERA and a .202 common allowed, rank first in dwelling runs per 9 innings and second in strikeout charge and, of course, have the most effective nearer within the sport in Emmanuel Clase, who's having one of the most effective nearer seasons of all time. It's been a dominant pen, with the likes of Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Eli Morgan and Cade Smith backing up Clase.
Is it sufficient for a crew that tasks to have the weakest rotation of any of the playoff groups?
Keep this in thoughts: Over the previous three postseasons, relievers have accounted for 49% of all innings pitched. The previous three World Series champions noticed 47% of their postseason innings come from their relievers. With all the times off and a deep arsenal of relievers to select from, supervisor Stephen Vogt can have extra-quick hooks on his starters and run a extra aggressive bullpen than he does within the common season.
Verdict: Real. It completely can work. It will surely assist the Guardians to win the division and earn one of the highest two seeds, which might give them a bit of extra relaxation earlier than beginning the ALDS and permit them to line up Tanner Bibee, their finest starter, to start out the primary sport in that sequence. And, sure, they will have to attain runs. But, you already know, they've Jose Ramirez and he is superior. In lots of methods, this crew is much like the 2015 Royals: nice bullpen, terrific protection and a lineup with simply sufficient energy to do harm. Let's put it this manner: Nobody needs to face the Guardians and that bullpen.
San Diego Padres
Real or Not: Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. will flip into October superstars.
The Padres improved on the commerce deadline, as normal supervisor A.J. Preller went all-in on bullpen depth, including Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing. Dylan Cease and Michael King give them a robust 1-2 on the prime of the rotation. Luis Arraez slaps his singles and by no means strikes out (certainly, the Padres have the bottom strikeout charge within the majors).
Those are all positives. But I really feel just like the Padres' World Series hopes come all the way down to Machado and Tatis — after all, they're nonetheless the 2 who drive this crew. Both have had up-and-down seasons. Machado hit simply 5 dwelling runs the primary two months — maybe because of the offseason elbow surgical procedure that restricted him to DH responsibility in April. Since the start of June, nonetheless, he has hit .300/.348/.540 with 21 dwelling runs in 87 video games. That seems lots just like the Manny Machado who completed second within the 2022 MVP voting.
Tatis returned in September after lacking greater than two months with a stress response in his proper thigh bone. He had performed most of the season with ache in his proper leg — which helps clarify why his defensive metrics that helped him win the Platinum Glove in 2023 because the NL's finest total defender have been so poor to start out the season. Now he is again and simply homered in three straight video games.
Verdict: Real. The Padres is likely to be peaking on the proper time. A wholesome Machado. A more healthy Tatis. Yu Darvish simply returned after being out since May, giving them a possible strong No. 3 starter behind Cease and King. The bullpen is World Series-worthy. Rookie Jackson Merrill has delivered large hits all season and Xander Bogaerts — bear in mind him? — is hitting near .300 within the second half. Maybe that is the 12 months all of Preller's maneuvering lastly pays off.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Real or Not: The finest offense within the majors will carry the Diamondbacks again to the World Series.
The Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs — and it's not likely shut. They're averaging 5.49 runs per sport with the Dodgers second at 5.00. They've been even higher than that in their second-half surge, though Ketel Marte and Christian Walker each missed time. Aside from the season-long excellence of Marte and monster numbers from platoon DH Joc Pederson, Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez have been crimson scorching. Carroll has slugged .566 with a .903 OPS since July 1, whereas Suarez has been even higher: Since that date, he is tied for second within the majors with Judge with 22 dwelling runs (one lower than Brent Rooker), leads with 63 RBIs (another than Rooker) and ranks sixth in OPS.
As good because the offense has been, nonetheless, the rotation stays worrisome. The large offseason signings of Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez have not paid dividends, with Montgomery now relegated to a bullpen function as a result of poor efficiency and Rodriguez posting a 5.50 ERA in seven begins. The Diamondbacks nonetheless have Zac Gallen, however his strikeout-to-walk ratio has deteriorated from final season, and Merrill Kelly, final 12 months's playoff hero, hasn't been significantly efficient since coming off a protracted stint on the IL. Brandon Pfaadt has allowed 40 hits and 27 runs in 22 innings over his previous 5 begins, so his spot in a playoff rotation abruptly seems up within the air.
Verdict: Not Real. The offense is legitimately nice and may definitely pile up runs. I'm simply undecided it can pile up sufficient runs to counter the runs the Diamondbacks would possibly permit. After an incredible run via July and most of August, they've misplaced sequence to the Mets, Dodgers, Astros and Brewers — you already know, good groups. As it did final October, the bullpen seems like it should carry a heavy load. Rookie Justin Martinez has taken over as nearer and throws 100 mph with a wipeout splitter, however he has allowed a run in seven of his previous 12 appearances. This is a enjoyable, explosive crew — higher than final 12 months's crew. But I nonetheless prefer to wager on pitching within the postseason.
Kansas City Royals
Real or Not: Bobby Witt Jr. and possibly the most effective playoff rotation are sufficient for an October run.
Witt continues to go toe-to-toe with Judge for MVP honors, and whereas he has carried the Kansas City offense, it's the underrated rotation that has additionally fueled the crew's rise from 106 losses final season to a probable playoff crew this season. Only the Seattle Mariners have a greater rotation ERA and extra innings pitched from their starters. The Royals' prime 4 starters — Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Michael Wacha — each have ERAs below 3.50. Lugo had a pair of tough outings in August however has righted issues and allowed two runs in 21 innings over his previous three begins — going through potential playoff opponents within the Yankees, Guardians and Astros. Ragans has 211 strikeouts, which is already the third-highest complete in Royals historical past (Dennis Leonard had 244 in 1977 and Zack Greinke 242 in 2009).
Verdict: Real. The odds are lengthy, particularly if the Royals have to return via the wild-card sequence, and I've doubts concerning the bullpen — and we all know how necessary the bullpen is within the postseason. We additionally know mediocre bullpens can get scorching on the proper time — simply take a look at final October with the Rangers and Diamondbacks. But the Royals do have a path to bullpen success: Lucas Erceg has been an enormous deadline pickup, Kris Bubic has been throwing the ball effectively (and has a 31-to-1 strikeout-to-unintentional stroll ratio), Alec Marsh can transfer from the rotation, and Michael Lorenzen, as soon as he returns from a hamstring damage, can pitch out of the pen as effectively. And the offense? It's ok, rating fourth within the AL in runs, with the second-lowest strikeout charge within the majors. The Royals would possibly simply shock everybody.
New York Mets
Real or Not: With the most effective document within the majors since June 12, they is likely to be the most effective crew in baseball.
The Mets are 54-31 with a plus-100 run differential since that date — a pair of wins higher than Arizona and Houston. Check their rankings since then:
The shock right here is the rotation, however Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and David Peterson have all been wonderful over the previous three months. Luis Severino could be the fourth starter and he is tremendous. Kodai Senga was imagined to be the employees ace however has made only one begin all season, though he might return as a reliever for the postseason. The offense has energy up and down the lineup, with MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso main the best way with 30-plus dwelling runs. The bullpen is clearly the largest query mark.
Verdict: Not Real. You must watch out dividing a baseball season into bits and items, however aside from a dismal May once they went 9-19, the Mets have been fairly regular. Mark Vientos taking up at third has been an enormous improve, and Lindor has been dominant after a sluggish begin. Still … I've doubts concerning the Mets as a World Series crew. Other than Manaea, it's not an enormous strikeout rotation, and that is a priority towards the higher offenses within the postseason. The bullpen hasn't precisely been locking issues down — simply take a look at the 2 late-game losses this previous weekend to the Phillies. And now Lindor's again is likely to be turning into an issue.
Atlanta Braves
Real or Not: They have the pitching to drag off an October shock — similar to in 2021.
Proof that the baseball playoffs make no sense: The Braves received 104 video games in 2023 with one of the most effective offenses of all time and misplaced within the NLDS. They received 101 video games in 2022 and misplaced within the NLDS. They received 88 video games in 2021 and did not have Ronald Acuna Jr. within the postseason however received the World Series. Just get in and something can occur.
Verdict: Real. With Chris Sale, Max Fried and an impressive bullpen (Sunday evening's ninth inning however), they've an opportunity — after all, they're tied with the Mariners for fewest runs allowed. They have a celebrity hitter in Marcell Ozuna. Even with their offensive struggles, they're tied for sixth within the majors in dwelling runs and residential runs play in October. Yes, they've additionally been a .500 crew because the center of May, however you possibly can see a path the place Matt Olson will get scorching on the proper time (as he was in August) and Ozzie Albies returns and Michael Harris II finds his stroke and so they rating sufficient runs.
Real or Not: A wholesome Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa might help them run the desk.
Well, all three are lastly wholesome on the identical time. Buxton returned on Friday and Correa returned the next day, so the three have been within the beginning lineup collectively for simply the twentieth time all season on Saturday. Minnesota misplaced 11-1. Indeed, the Twins are below .500 because the All-Star break. Yes, blame the accidents, however the pitching simply hasn't been playoff-caliber both, not to mention World Series-caliber. This reveals up of their document towards good groups: 0-6 towards the Yankees, 2-8 towards the Guardians, 0-3 towards the Braves and Orioles, and sequence losses to the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets and Padres. The Twins are 37-52 towards groups at the moment above .500. They have been nice towards the White Sox (12-1), however they do not play them the ultimate two weeks and so they're gasping to carry on to that third AL wild card over Detroit and Seattle.
Verdict: Not Real. Lewis has lastly been wholesome for essentially the most prolonged interval of his profession — and has stopped hitting as effectively (.229, .675 OPS because the starting of August). We do not have a learn but on Buxton and Correa. Bottom line: The Twins simply do not beat the great groups, so it's tough to examine them winning 4 sequence in a row towards good groups. (The Tigers or Mariners, if they'll catch the Twins, would possibly really be the higher wager to drag off some playoff upsets, because of their pitching.)
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