Passan’s Analysis and World Series Prediction for the 2024 MLB Playoffs | Sports

After six months and 162 video games — together with one bonus doubleheader on Monday, with two playoff spots nonetheless at stake — Major League Baseball will enter its postseason on Tuesday with no clear favourite to win the World Series.

For a sport ceaselessly endeavoring to seek out on-field parity amid monetary disparity, the 2024 MLB season provided a near-perfect instance of what baseball can do: discipline a postseason with markets huge (Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and presumably the New York Mets) and small (Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers), with payrolls excessive (Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros) and low (Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers).

The enlargement of the MLB playoffs to 12 groups did nothing to eradicate the pleasure from the common season this yr. It additionally, as evidenced by the 90-win Texas Rangers final season beating the 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks for the World Series title, enriched the alternative for groups that did not excel fairly as a lot over the slog of a full season. In baseball, anybody can win a championship.

Here, then, is the case for each remaining crew, listed in ascending order of regular-season successful proportion, together with all three groups nonetheless battling for the ultimate NL playoff spots. This is Why Your Team Can Win the World Series — adopted by my 2024 World Series prediction, forecasting which of the remaining groups really will win it.

Watch: Mets-Braves doubleheader, beginning Mon. at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN2

Why the Detroit Tigers can win the World Series

The Tigers have been successful every thing for nearly two months. On Aug. 10, they had been 55-63, and that they had traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, and but every thing wasn't precisely gloomy. They had managed to remain afloat, and now was time to summon the children. And as Detroit obtained youthful — Parker Meadows in middle and Trey Sweeney at shortstop and even Jackson Jobe, the finest pitching prospect in baseball, as a late-season bullpen addition — at the huge league degree, one thing occurred: They obtained higher, too.

Beyond ace Tarik Skubal — who may be the likeliest candidate to single-handedly win a recreation this postseason, forward of even Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani — the Tigers are a complete better than the sum of their elements. Riley Greene is an All-Star caliber left fielder, and flanking him on the different facet of Meadows is Kerry Carpenter, the finest hitter of the bunch. Their infield makes the needed performs and hits sufficient, and their bullpen is ridiculous, a testomony to the pitching program developed in Scott Harris' tenure as Detroit's president of baseball operations. To those that cannot make sense of how this occurred: Join the membership. End-of-season leaps of this magnitude are uncommon gems, and Detroit deserves a winner.

Why the Kansas City Royals can win the World Series

Kansas City stumbled into the postseason, shedding seven consecutive video games twice in the previous 5 weeks. Still, it wasn't sufficient to spoil the Royals' first playoff expertise since successful the World Series in 2015. The Royals' pitching, because it has all yr, concluded the season projecting power — and Minnesota blowing its lead in the wild-card race allowed Kansas City to waste neither Cole Ragans nor Seth Lugo earlier than its playoff collection.

The Royals getting to start out these two in any order is deeply disadvantageous for the Orioles. Ragans has pitched like an ace this season, and Lugo has been each bit pretty much as good. And out of nowhere, the Royals' bullpen has been amongst the recreation's finest. In the previous two weeks, Kansas City sports activities the second-best reliever ERA at 1.42. The Royals will want all the zeroes they will muster. Beyond Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, the Royals' offense is iffy, and the chance of Kansas City making a run deep into the playoffs will depend on a few of the supporting forged studying how to not be iffy. Maybe it is Tommy Pham or Yuli Gurriel, guys who've been there. Or, in the event that they're fortunate, perhaps Vinnie Pasquantino, who's desperately making an attempt to make his approach again from a damaged thumb and sounds optimistic about it occurring. However far the Royals go, it is a stark reminder: Invest cash like proprietor John Sherman did, and excellent issues can occur.

Why the Houston Astros can win the World Series:

Since June 1, they have the finest file in the AL. No crew in the league has a greater run differential. The huge worry: That slugger Yordan Alvarez will not be prepared for Houston's wild card collection in opposition to the Tigers. A sprain in Alvarez's knee worn out the ultimate week of his season, and he might be the largest absence of the wild card spherical. Alvarez, considered one of baseball's finest hitters, is crucial to Houston's probabilities. With Kyle Tucker lastly again (and raking, in fact), their offense ought to've been about pretty much as good as it may get. While even with out Alvarez the core of the lineup — Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena — is stable, the bottom-third has been one thing of a problem all season lengthy.

When you have obtained pitching like the Astros, although, lineup depth is just not of the utmost significance. Framber Valdez is placing up ace-like numbers once more. Hunter Brown has the fifth-best ERA in baseball since June 1, one spot forward of Valdez. The Astros lastly misplaced a recreation Yusei Kikuchi began after 9 consecutive post-trade deadline wins. Ronel Blanco's April no-hitter was extra an indication of issues to return than a fluke. Spencer Arrighetti would begin on nearly each different playoff crew and is a depth choice right here. Perhaps the finest strategy to sum up why so many suppose the Astros are going to their eighth consecutive ALCS — and maybe farther? Their pitching is so deep future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander won't have a spot on their playoff roster.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks can win the World Series

Even with their end-of-season collapse, the Diamondbacks are an absolute deal with to look at. For nearly the entirety of the season, as quietly as doable, they've had the recreation's finest offense. They have scored the most runs in baseball, and it isn't significantly shut. Behind the Diamondbacks' 886 (5.5 runs per recreation) are the Dodgers (842) and Yankees (809). Arizona hit house runs (211, fourth in MLB), has a excessive batting common (.263, tied with the Padres for finest in the majors), takes walks (9.1%, fifth), does not strike out (20.2%, fifth) and is a middle-of-the-pack stolen-base crew however runs the bases properly. That's as well-rounded an offense as you are going to discover.

All that is standing between the Diamondbacks and the World Series title that eluded them final season, then, are arms. Arizona has allowed 781 runs, the fourth most in baseball. The crew has the very odd mixture of the second-worst common on balls in play in MLB (.309) and well-above-average protection — which means that the balls are falling much less on account of the fielding and extra having to do with dangerous luck. And we have seen a really related Diamondbacks workers — Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt — carve by way of the playoffs. Get them rolling, add in A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez out of the bullpen and the Diamondbacks very properly may have sufficient arms to make this October even higher than final.

Why the New York Mets can win the World Series

Because this can be a crew of … no, Passan, do not say that. The Grimace factor was humorous, and the OMG factor is a good stroke of luck as a result of it introduced the crew collectively, and the Mets going a major-league-best 19-6 after WWE announcer Michael Cole, a die-hard fan, declared them lifeless on a “Baseball Tonight” podcast episode I guest-hosted is simply so them. You suppose they're executed? Come on. These Mets do not stay down. They amaze and frustrate with no warning. This week has been seemingly catastrophe after distaster, and but they discover themselves right here, with a chance.

The offense, headlined by Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo goes so deep. Francisco Alvarez and Jose Iglesias and Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez and Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor and Starling Marte and Luisangel Acuna and actually each Met can hit and hit for energy. And discuss spectacular: The Mets' beginning pitching — led by Luis Severino, David Peterson, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana — has the second finest ERA in the NL since June 3 at 3.66. A middle-of-the-road bullpen and iffy protection stop the Mets from machine standing, however they actually have amped up pleasure with a run that makes them look way more harmful than the final wild card sometimes does.

Why the Atlanta Braves can win the World Series

For those that have not observed, the Braves' beginning pitching has been distinctive. They have struck out hitters at the highest charge and allowed house runs at the lowest, a nifty trick, and they've executed so with out Spencer Strider, who was imagined to be their finest starter. That's the factor about these Braves, although. They're a large mess of imagined to. Ronald Acuna Jr. was imagined to comply with his 40/70 season with a triumphant encore. A torn knee killed that concept. Austin Riley was imagined to make up for Acuna's loss. Nope. He obtained harm, too. On and on it goes, and if there's a solution as to why the Braves can win, it is easy: Because they've.

Certainly a Chris Sale-Max Fried-Spencer Schwellenbach rotation is formidable. They've additionally obtained Charlie Morton and a returning Reynaldo Lopez. So the beginning pitching is there. And Atlanta's bullpen has been usually filthy all yr lengthy, additionally a power. The Braves, then, will go solely so far as their offense. Matt Olson has been distinctive all month. Michael Harris has heated up, Jorge Soler is taking part in properly, Marcell Ozuna retains hitting and even Ramon Laureano has gotten right into a rhythm. If the Braves make it after this injury-pocked mess of a season, they will have executed what they had been imagined to.

Why the Baltimore Orioles can win the World Series

Once upon a time this season, the Baltimore Orioles seemed like a juggernaut primed to run roughshod by way of the remainder of the AL. Gunnar Henderson was outplaying Bobby Witt Jr., Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser and Ryan Mountcastle had been mashing. At that time, Anthony Santander had solely seven house runs in 40 video games — and now he has put collectively an all-time energy season for a swap hitter, belting 44 house runs. Corbin Burnes was dealing and Grayson Rodriguez was again and so had been Kyle Bradish and John Means, and it felt like one thing totally different was occurring than final season, when 101 wins melted right into a three-game division-series sweep by Texas.

The Orioles we have seen for the previous three months are nearer to that October mess than 101 wins. Since July 7, simply earlier than the All-Star break, Baltimore was 29-37 earlier than ending the season with a sweep of the sputtering Twins. Rutschman hit .196/.277/.281 in that stretch. Baltimore's finest batter, by weighted on-base common, has been third baseman Ramon Urias, who has missed nearly all of September. Rodriguez, Bradish and Means obtained harm and aren't on the roster. That's merely not going to chop it. The Orioles having Burnes for Game 1 stakes them an enormous alternative to win each collection, and Zach Eflin is a really sturdy 2. The bats must outslug the opponents, although, and by a substantial margin, as a result of Baltimore's weak spot in the bullpen is one thing opponents will attempt to exploit. The Orioles could be good. They have been good. They know what attractiveness like. Sometimes you simply need to play that strategy to really feel that approach, and they have not.

Why the Cleveland Guardians can win the World Series

The Guardians' bullpen has defied considerations about overuse all season, and in September it put collectively its finest month but, which is saying one thing seeing as in each month besides August, the Guardians' reduction ERA was 2.67 or decrease. In September: a 1.38 ERA, only a 15 earned runs in 98 innings pitched. Emmanuel Clase has been the finest reliever in MLB this yr and deserves down-the-ballot Cy Young votes, and he hasn't allowed a run this month. Neither have Eli Morgan, Erik Sabrowski and Andrew Walters. And Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin all have ERAs of two.00 or under. Cleveland's relievers are a real weapon.

Which the Guardians want with iffy beginning pitching and a lineup that, although higher this yr, has been hit-or-miss by way of consistency. Lane Thomas and Kyle Manzardo have helped make up for Josh Naylor's and Steven Kwan's offense falling off in September — and if the 4 of them can get going round Jose Ramirez being his sometimes glorious self, Cleveland may have the thump to get forward and let first-year supervisor Stephen Vogt proceed working his bullpen magic.

Why the Milwaukee Brewers can win the World Series

For all of the rightful love San Diego's bullpen receives, Milwaukee's has been superior in each approach this month. More strikeouts. Fewer walks and homers. Lower ERA. Closer Devin Williams seems higher than he has in years. Joel Payamps is dealing. Aaron Ashby has been good. It's a bunch of mid-to-high-90s fastballs mixed with swing-and-miss off-speed stuff. And Pat Murphy, the Brewers' first-year supervisor who's the favourite to win NL Manager of the Year, has dealt with them as deftly as his predecessor, Craig Counsell, whose Cubs completed 10 video games behind of the Brewers.

This crew won't enter the postseason with as a lot hype as the different NL division leaders, however here is the factor: Milwaukee is actually good. William Contreras is the best-hitting catcher in baseball. Willy Adames is the twelfth shortstop ever to hit 30 house runs and drive in 100 runs in a season. And Jackson Chourio — all of 20, signed for the subsequent decade, a franchise-player-in-the-making — is able to take his second-half slash line of .309/.354/.556 into the postseason. They catch the ball very properly. Their 217 stolen bases is the most of all playoff groups. The Brewers' beginning pitching, for so lengthy a defining component of their success, is just not loaded with names however is quietly efficient. Freddy Peralta nonetheless punches out batters galore, and Tobias Myers is considered one of the nice tales of the 2024 season — and that might be sufficient to maintain an actual run.

Why the San Diego Padres can win the World Series

The Padres' philosophy of loading up on stars has produced its best group but, and actually its most geared up to win a World Series. San Diego goes to be a classy choose due to its bullpen, which is as nasty as basic supervisor A.J. Preller envisioned when he mortgaged a big chunk of his farm system to accumulate right-handers Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing and left-hander Tanner Scott at the commerce deadline. Combine them with Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui and nearer Robert Suarez and it's the nastiest bullpen in baseball. Since the deadline, Padres relievers have the highest Okay-BB% in the league in addition to the lowest ERA in quite a few predictive classes, together with FIP and SIERA.

The huge names are at the plate. Jackson Merrill is an prompt star; Fernando Tatis Jr. is taking part in like one once more; Jurickson Profar has joined him there; Luis Arraez added one other low-strikeout component to the social gathering; Manny Machado is completed one lengthy ball shy of reaching 30 house runs and 100 RBIs for the second time in three years; and they have an superior bench with Donovan Solano and David Peralta. But there's beginning pitching, too: Dylan Cease has thrown like an ace in his first season with the Padres, and Michael King is just not far behind. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are again. This is a deep, well-rounded unit that San Diego is dying to cheer to the metropolis's first World Series since 1998.

Why the New York Yankees can win the World Series

Aaron Judge hits second and Juan Soto hits third. Perhaps it is overly simplistic to distill the Yankees' fortunes to 2 gamers on a 26-man roster, but it surely's the fact: If Judge and Soto aren't performing like two of the finest hitters on the planet, the Yankees do not have the surrounding expertise to beat the high groups. It's a superb factor, then, that Judge is having the finest yr of his profession — sure, higher than his 62-homer season in 2022 — and Soto the identical. They are the finest duo this century, and Soto's impending free company can be looming over each second this October. Getting manufacturing from every other bat — Jazz Chisholm Jr., Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez, somebody, anybody — will surely alleviate issues for Judge and Soto.

Where else can they take benefit? Almost all the Yankees' starters have pitched fairly properly over the previous six weeks — and the bullpen, with Clay Holmes demoted from the nearer's position, has tightened up, too. Luke Weaver and Ian Hamilton particularly look glorious; Tim Hill and Tim Mayza have been efficient left-handed choices; and it is value remembering: The Rangers gained final yr counting on Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz, so name-brand bullpens aren't requirements for rings.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies can win the World Series

They've obtained the expertise, the expertise, the urgency and the look. They've obtained the ace and a wonderful supporting crew. They've obtained the masher at the high of the order, the star shortstop after him and the two-time MVP up subsequent. They've obtained 4 real choices to shut out video games — perhaps even 5 or 6, simply on stuff alone. The query right here may be the flawed one. Why can the Phillies win the World Series? Because they're the finest crew in the discipline. Because they completed the common season with the second-best file after 162 video games however have fewer lingering questions than the crew forward of them. Because the most electrical ballpark in America is again for one other October. And as others stake a declare — we see you, Petco Park, and we hear you, Citi Field — Citizens Bank Park endeavors to carry its place as a horror present to opposing baseball groups.

So, why cannot they? Phillies pitchers have gotten homer-happy at instances this season. They're good with the routine defensive play however not the spectacular. Seven playoff groups — together with three from the NL West — have higher wRC+ than the Phillies. Compared with the remainder of the groups, that is nitpicking. The Phillies are a really well-built crew. Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Carlos Estevez, Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm. There's a motive the Phillies are robust to beat. The expertise retains coming.

Why the Los Angeles Dodgers can win the World Series

The variations of Shohei Ohtani assist outline his profession. There was Two-Way Ohtani, WBC Ohtani, DH-Only Ohtani. Finally, after seven years of ready, baseball will get to expertise Playoff Ohtani. The weight on him will exceed that on every other participant in current reminiscence, and that's positive as a result of Ohtani bears weight like an Olympic lifter. He did not simply attain the 50-home-run, 50-stolen-base threshold that, at the starting of the season, by no means crossed anybody's thoughts. He obliterated it, hitting 54 homers and swiping 59 bases. A extremely motivated Ohtani is the most harmful variety, and if the postseason brings out in him what the WBC did, the Dodgers may have an extended experience, even with questions on their pitching.

It's true. They do not have anyplace near as a lot beginning pitching depth as they did earlier this season. But Yoshinobu Yamamoto is again, and he's able to shutting down good offenses. And Jack Flaherty has been glorious all season and saved the Dodgers' rotation. And Landon Knack is stable, giving up two or fewer runs in 10 of 14 appearances. They've at all times obtained a minimum of a few relievers who peak round postseason time and fall into acquainted late-inning roles. As lengthy as Ohtani hits and Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman do not have a repeat of final postseason, they're as harmful as anybody.

Predictions

play

Passan's choose for finest crew in MLB

Jeff Passan joins “The Pat McAfee Show” to speak baseball and the upcoming MLB playoffs.

Landing in a spot the place I picked the Houston Astros regardless of Yordan Alvarez's uncertainty took time, and but it is the place I saved returning, as a result of even with out him, the Astros' offense has been amongst the finest in baseball. This is much less about the Astros, although, and extra about the American League being a collective of groups with deep weaknesses.

The Phillies, in the meantime, roll into October not with the finest file in the league however with expertise and the form of formulation that may actually play en path to a championship. Starting pitching, bullpen excellence, lineup depth. Other groups verify loads of these packing containers, however no different fairly as continuously as Philadelphia.

Finally, after two years of misses, it is the Phillies' flip to win their first ring since 2008.

Passan's World Series prediction: Phillies over Astros