When Kamala Harris grew to become the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Joe Biden dropped out of the race this summer season, her file on the southwest border was one of many first targets for Republicans.
But it seems her boss could have handed her an election-year present — only one that took a number of weeks to reveal itself.
Less than a month earlier than earlier than the talk that ended his 50-year political profession, President Biden signed an govt order inserting restrictions on asylum, which precipitated a pointy and regular fall in unlawful border crossings. That transfer, mixed with diplomatic efforts in Mexico and Central America that seem to be paying off, has taken among the wind out of the GOP's sails when it comes to the immigration issue, in accordance to current polling.
“That, I think in many ways, has helped to alleviate concerns around a crisis narrative,” Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, affiliate coverage analyst on the Migration Policy Institute, instructed Newsweek.
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A drop in border crossings in 2024
“The combination of a lack of, every day, seeing the lines of migrants waiting to be processed by border patrol, and also not hearing that places like New York or Chicago or Denver are under immense stress has shifted it, somewhat, for voters,” Putzel-Kavanaugh continued.
Those scenes performed out throughout the nationwide media panorama for a lot of 2022 and 2023, when New York City, Boston, Los Angeles and different large cities struggled to discover house and sources for a crush of recent arrivals.
There had been 58,038 encounters on the southwest border in August 2024, figures from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) confirmed, a pointy drop from the file of 250,000 reached in December 2023.
Earlier this 12 months, NBC polling confirmed Donald Trump with a staggering 35-point lead over Biden on the issue of immigration. That lead has fallen to 21 factors, in accordance to the newest NBC ballot, whereas Harris leads Trump by 28 factors on defending immigrants' rights.
Polling by Ipsos confirmed that as border crossings fell, the variety of voters choosing immigration as their principal issue this November additionally steadily dropped – from about 20 % in February to nearer to 10 % in August.
Still, the border stays a legal responsibility for Harris. Her marketing campaign is mentioned to be contemplating a go to to a border area when she campaigns in Arizona later this week — reflecting Democrats' perception that the vice chairman can proceed to slim the hole on immigration by taking a extra proactive method and going through the issue head-on. Such a visit has not but been confirmed by the Harris camp.
Harris exhibits more durable stance on the border
Jennie Murray, CEO of The Immigration Forum, instructed Newsweek that Harris helped speed up that pattern by projecting energy on the issue on the Democratic National Convention, adopted up by her debate with the previous president.
In each these situations, the vice chairman delivered extra hawkish speaking factors on immigration, noting the necessity for a safe border and inserting the blame for a failed bipartisan border invoice squarely with Trump.
“I think it took some of the emphasis out of conversation,” Murray mentioned.
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Putzel-Kavanaugh famous that it was one thing new for voters to see a Democrat take a more durable stance on the border, as mirrored within the speeches on the DNC.
“They have leaned into some of these tough enforcement measures, while also opening up different and new kinds of pathways, trying to expand diplomatic relations throughout the region,” she mentioned.
“Really making a focus on the hemispheric efforts. The border doesn't just start and end at the border, but so much of migration happens before and after someone comes into the country.”
Murray believes voters perceive this nuance greater than the polling exhibits.
Last week, a Scripps/Ipsos ballot prompt a majority of Americans supported Trump's promise of finishing up mass deportations. At the identical time, an identical margin wished to see extra authorized pathways to citizenship, which Democrats have referred to as for.
Research by The Immigration Forum has discovered a overwhelming majority of voters from each events need to see the 2 sides come collectively and discover options, quite than unfold and amplify fears about migrants, corresponding to with the claims made by Senator JD Vance and Trump about Springfield, Ohio and its Haitian diaspora in current weeks.
“I think that [Harris] could really tap into this because, honestly, there are so many people who would like to see something sensible,” Murray mentioned.
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“The word that I keep getting from so many folks, when they hear this type of rhetoric and they hear these very harsh solutions that are out there, is that they feel quite squeamish,” she continued.
“And this is mostly the center-right folks that I work with, that this is not the kind of leadership that they want to see on the issue.”
Putzel-Kavanaugh mentioned the challenges include the complexities of the present immigration system, which may very well be lessened by passing a bipartisan border invoice, as Harris has promised.
“We've seen many Republicans walk away from it, many have deemed it dead,” she mentioned of that invoice. “So the support for it, or the elements of the bill, are one thing, but how to usher it through what will likely continue to be a divided Congress is a whole other point of contention.”
