Is Ted Cruz At Risk of Losing in Texas? | Politics

Senator Ted Cruz is in a surprisingly aggressive race in Texas as current polls seem to point his Democratic opponent is gaining traction.

Texas has traditionally been a solidly Republican state, sending Republicans to the Senate each election since 1990, and to the governor's mansion since 1994. Texas has not voted to place a Democrat in the White House since 1976, and former President Donald Trump is on monitor to win in Texas once more in November.

But current polling has proven that incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz may very well be struggling to defend his seat towards his opponent, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred. The most up-to-date ballot to return out of the state, conducted by Morning Consult between September 9 and 18, confirmed that for the primary time ever, Allred was one level forward of Cruz, on 45 p.c to his 44 p.c amongst 2,716 doubtless voters. His lead was throughout the ballot's margin of error of +/-2 proportion factors.

“For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don't know about y'all but I'm fired up and ready to WIN! We've got 47 days, let's do this Texas,” Allred mentioned in a put up on X, previously Twitter.

While that is the one ballot that has given Allred a lead, others have proven that Cruz is simply forward of the previous NFL linebacker by a slim margin. One current statewide ballot printed by Emerson College and The Hill, performed between September 3 and 5, confirmed that Cruz was 4 factors forward—a lead simply outdoors of the ballot's margin of error of +/-3.3 p.c.

President and CEO of Texas-based polling firm The Bullfinch Group, Brett Loyd, instructed Newsweek that the state is anyone's to win.

“The Texas Senate race is a tossup. It should have always been considered a tossup. That is not to say Cruz will lose, but the race should be looked at as anyone's game,” he mentioned.

Newsweek has contacted the Cruz and Allred campaigns for remark by way of electronic mail.

The Cook Political Report nonetheless classifies the Senate race in Texas as a probable Republican seat. RealClearPolitics' polling tracker places Cruz on common 6 factors forward. Nonetheless, some Republicans are nonetheless nervous about how shut the polls have been in this race up to now.

“What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas ? I think i know …and i think i know his name…time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz,” Donald Trump's marketing campaign supervisor, Chris LaCivita, lately wrote in a put up on X.

Fundraising hauls by the Democrats in the state can also be a trigger for concern amongst Republicans.

Allred joined the race in May 2023, so his fundraising lagged behind Cruz's head begin. In whole, the Texas Republican has raised a complete of $59.6 million, whereas Allred has raised about $38.4 million up to now, in accordance with knowledge from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).

Cruz's marketing campaign additionally has extra money in its pockets—FEC knowledge reveals him with $12.7 million in money readily available, in comparison with Allred's $10.5 million.

Still, the fundraising totals seem to indicate liberal donors who're energized by the chance to unseat Cruz, who, in 2018, solely narrowly defeated his opponent Beto O'Rourke by 214,921 votes out of greater than 8.3 million forged.

“For this class of Senators, in 2018, the 6 tightest races (in order) were Florida, Arizona, Texas, West Virginia, Montana, Nevada. [Joe] Manchin retiring means West Virginia is out, but other than that, these are the first states people should be talking about when looking at ‘tight races.' And Texas has changed so much from 2018; to think that Cruz is safe is silly,” Brett Loyd instructed Newsweek.

“The argument I keep hearing among people from Texas is ‘it'll never happen; a Democrat will never win here statewide.' That argument is tired. States change, populations shift. Cruz won by 2 points six years ago in a state that has only became more purple year after year. To say the race isn't a top-tier tossup because ‘it doesn't happen in Texas' is nonsensical. Cruz may win, but this race is absolutely a tossup,” Loyd added.

However, Joshua Blank, director of analysis for the Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin, disagreed, telling Newsweek that it's “highly unlikely” that Cruz will lose in the state in November.

While he acknowledged that elections are “tightening up” in Texas, he cautioned that the Morning Consult ballot giving Allred a lead is the one one to have finished so in this election cycle.

“Cruz's close call with O'Rourke in 2018 took place in an election year that favored Democratic candidates, and whether 2024 ultimately turns out to favor one party or neither remains to be seen. Republicans still maintain an advantaged position in Texas, but that advantage is clearly diminishing, and the electoral environment is a big factor in determining how close the election ultimately turns out to be,” he added.

“But barring unforeseen circumstances, I think it's highly unlikely that Allred will beat Cruz in this election, though I still expect a close race.”