Is Derrick Henry the final NFL player to reach 10,000 career rushing yards? | Sports

I hope you acquire Derrick Henry inventory this offseason or early this season as a result of it's skyrocketing in the final two weeks. He entered Week 5 as the NFL's rushing chief (480 yards) with a tempo of over 2,000 yards after back-to-back 150-yard rushing video games to assist get the Ravens again to .500 at 2-2. 

Henry additionally simply grew to become the thirty second member of the unique 10,000-yard membership on Sunday in opposition to Cincinnati. He simply is likely to be the final to hit this milestone, too. Think about it. Before Henry, the final player to be part of the membership was Marshawn Lynch on Dec. 31, 2017. It's been virtually seven years. Almost one player joined the membership per yr from 1981-2014.  It's the second-longest drought with out a player reaching 10,000 rushing yards (solely longer: Jim Brown in 1964 and O.J. Simpson in 1977, the first two to reach 10,000 rush yards). 

Players with 10,000 rushing yards in NFL historical past

There's a cause for that. While rushing is making a comeback early this season, we aren't seeing a return of the bell-cow working again. 

There had been 24 particular person seasons with 300-plus rushes in the 2010s, down from 87 in the 2000s. 

Last yr the league's high 5 rushers averaged 1,188 rushing yards, the fewest by the NFL's high 5 in a non-strike season since 1974 when the league performed a 14-game schedule, not in the present day's 17 video games. 

The alternative for the recreation's elite skills at working again simply aren't there. There had been 20 particular person seasons the place gamers accounted for no less than 70 % of their group's rushes in the 2010s. That determine was 58 in the 2000s. Six gamers hit that alone in the yr 2000, in contrast with zero final yr. 

Henry is the final of a dying breed. He's had no less than 60 % of his group's carries in every of the final 5 seasons, together with 4 straight with no less than 70 % from 2019-22. 

Individual seasons since 1990

This is why in case you eyeball the record of most rushing yards amongst energetic gamers you see so few viable choices to comply with Henry into the 10,000-yard rushing membership.

Let's run by the greatest choices. I'm bypassing Ezekiel Elliott. He's virtually 1,000 away, however his rushing yards per recreation common has declined in eight straight seasons. He's down to career lows in yards per rush (3.4) and yards per recreation (20.3) this yr. 

Christian McCaffrey in all probability entered the yr as the high candidate coming off final yr's rushing title, nonetheless in his prime at age 28 needing almost 4,000 yards to be part of the membership. He may reach that at the finish of 2028 at his present career tempo (68.0 rushing yards per recreation and 13 video games per season), however now his well being is a large query mark with Achilles tendinitis in each legs. I am unable to endorse his candidacy.

Jonathan Taylor might be the greatest candidate. He averages 86.5 career rushing yards per recreation, the eighth-highest common in NFL historical past and highest amongst energetic gamers (subsequent highest is Nick Chubb who will not be on my record due to his leg harm). He's nonetheless 25 and will reach 10,000 at the finish of 2028 primarily based on his present tempo. However, his 2021 season (1,811 rushing yards) is trying like an outlier and he is missed 13 video games in the earlier two seasons. I'd say his likelihood is decrease than 50-50. 

Lamar Jackson is the darkhorse. He's 27 years previous and has 5,566 yards. He would hit 10,000 halfway by 2029 at age 33 primarily based on his present tempo. However, I'd anticipate him to hit a wall in his early 30s like different elite working quarterbacks. If you chop his tempo from 61.8 rushing yards per recreation to 40, it will take him till 2032 when he is 36. 

Bijan Robinson is absurdly gifted however we have not seen sufficient from him but to make a projection. I additionally left off Saquon Barkley. He's 27 years previous and sits at 5,646 rushing yards. He is simply too harm inclined, although, and has by no means rushed for greater than 1,312 yards in a season. 

Top candidates for 10,000 rushing yards

There are a whole lot of explanation why Henry might be the final player to ever reach 10,000 rushing yards. One I did not point out was increasingly gifted athletes select to play quarterback and broad receiver, somewhat than working again. 

Could there be one other alien like Henry that comes alongside and beats the odds, although? Sure. I'm constructive that 10 years in the past no one thought any individual like Shohei Ohtani would come alongside and have a 50-50 season after placing out 200 batters in a season as a pitcher. 

When it comes to sports activities, you by no means know, however latest historical past paints a dismal future for the 10,000-yard rushing membership, so admire Henry's milestone all the extra!