Increased risk of heat and fire concerns expected early next week | fire

Warmer temperatures right now in comparison with yesterday, with possibilities for scattered showers and thunderstorms alongside the Sierra mountains south of I-80, with just a few lingering cells within the larger elevation foothills. Warm and dry climate returns Friday into next week, with areas of average HeatRisk and elevated fire climate circumstances Monday & Tuesday throughout the Delta, Valley, and foothills.

Discussion

Today’s thunderstorm menace will stay confined to the Sierra mountains and larger elevation foothills south of I-80, the place NBM possibilities present a 30-40% likelihood of improvement. The heart of the low pressure system will steadily transfer throughout Southern California later right now, drawing in moisture throughout the Sierra in an east to west orientation.

A number of scattered showers creating throughout the late morning hours will precede afternoon thunderstorm initiation alongside the foothills. East-southeasterly steering flow aloft will permit storms to propagate downslope of the Sierra shortly after their initiation. Storms will usually weaken as they transfer downslope, however extra strong cells will maintain collectively longer bringing potential thunderstorm impacts additional into the Sierra foothills the place solely a 20-25% likelihood of thunderstorms exists. Remnants of these storms have the potential to deliver mild showers/virga to jap parts of the Valley, notably the jap parts of the northern San Joaquin Valley. Dry circumstances are expected all over the place else. A number of mild showers might attain the Park Fire burn scar, however no particles flow impacts are expected right now.

High stress begins to construct in Friday as jap Pacific ridging builds eastward. Temperatures start to heat to close normal by Saturday, with highs above normal on Sunday. The NBM reveals a 60 to 90% likelihood of excessive temperatures higher than 90 deg F on Friday over the central and northern Sacramento Valley. Probabilities lengthen into the Delta, southern Sacramento Valley, and northern San Joaquin by Saturday and Sunday. This warming pattern continues into early next week, accompanied by a drying pattern.

As the earlier system propagates eastward, a steepening stress gradient develops as ridging begins to maneuver over Northern California. As a end result, periodically breezy north winds will permeate all through the Valley and easterly/downslope winds over the Sierra over the weekend and into early next week. Gusts will usually be 15-20 mph with daytime relative humidities might be within the mid teenagers to mid 20s, initially over the northern Sacramento Valley and adjoining foothills Sat-Sun leading to localized elevated fire climate circumstances.

Extended Discussion (Monday via Thursday)

Warmer and dryer climate is expected Monday and Tuesday, as we see the return of Moderate HeatRisk all through the Valley and foothills. The NBM can be exhibiting a 20-50% of excessive temperatures higher than 100 levels across the Greater Sacramento Metro Area. Alongside these hotter temperatures, daytime relative humidities within the mid teenagers to low 20s might be current all through the Valley, Delta, foothills, and mountains.

This can be when have been seeing indications of breezier northerly flow throughout the extra wind-prone areas of the Sacramento Valley (i.e. the northern Sac Valley and alongside the I-5 hall within the Sacramento Valley) on Monday with gusts 15 to 25 mph. On Tuesday, elevated flow might be positioned alongside the Sierra foothills and mountains the place breezy downslope/easterly winds and gap winds gusting 20 to 30 mph might be current. These circumstances look to deliver extra widespread elevated fire climate circumstances to the area, particularly within the Valley and foothills the place RH values might be lowest.

By Wednesday and into Thursday, troughing begins to develop offshore leading to elevated onshore flow and larger humidities via the Delta and Sacramento space. However temperatures will nonetheless be 5 to 10 levels above normal for this time of 12 months.