Impact of Tyler Allgeier on Bijan Robinson’s Fantasy Football Prospects | Sports

Early within the 2024 NFL season issues haven't gone as anticipated for the highest working backs in fantasy soccer drafts. In truth, issues have gotten fairly messy.

Christian McCaffrey, who carried a mean draft place (ADP) of first general and RB1 in half-PPR (through FantasyPros), continues to take care of Achilles tendonitis and has but to make his season debut. Breece Hall (RB2 ADP) and Bijan Robinson (RB3 ADP) aren't protected, both. Hall's effectivity has lacked with -0.08 speeding yards over expectation per carry (per NFL's Next Gen Stats), inflicting Braelon Allen to get an elevated workload. The identical factor is going on to Robinson as Tyler Allgeier is changing into a bigger and bigger risk to Bijan's workload.

What does this imply for the Atlanta Falcons‘ backfield going ahead? Is it time to promote Robinson, or can he nonetheless ship on his excessive ADP?

Bijan Robinson's Usage

According to PlayerProfiler, Robinson remains to be getting an enormous workload on the season. He's holding a 83.3% snap share (third-highest amongst his place), 75.0% alternative share (seventh-highest), and 47.6 weighted alternatives (sixth-highest). Robinson took no less than 75.0% of the snaps from Week 1 to Week 3. So, the place's the difficulty?

The utilization concern is usually on account of Week 4's outcomes. Bijan performed for 36 snaps (64%); his earlier low was 46 snaps (75%). He logged solely 11 touches in Week 4 whereas 18 touches was his earlier low from Week 3. Of course, some of this was chalked as much as Kirk Cousins racking up 35 passing makes an attempt. Atlanta's 70.0% go play proportion was a bit uncharacteristic (58.1% on the season).

While the Falcons' carries had been down generally, this will get way more regarding. Allgeier made his presence identified in Week 4.

Tyler Allgeier's Expanding Role

Prior to Week 4, Allgeier posted snap counts of 10, 13, and 13. This spiked to 21 snaps final week, good for a 38% snap fee. For comparability, Allgeier's earlier excessive was 21% in Week 2 and Week 3.

The touches had been practically even, as properly, with Allgeier totaling 10 to Bijan's 11. The greatest forehead raiser was the utilization within the second half of the 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints.

Allgeier posted 13 snaps to Robinson's 14 within the second half, and he would log seven speeding makes an attempt whereas Bijan recorded just one. If that is not eye-opening, I'm undecided what's.

This might be headed towards mirroring the 2023 season, which gave Robinson a 68.6% snap share. While this was nonetheless the ninth-highest mark at his place, his alternative share completed thirty first, and Bijan was seventeenth at his place in fantasy factors per recreation with this workload. That's removed from adequate for an ADP of RB3.

You're most likely questioning why Allgeier dominated the carries within the second half of Week 4. Let's dig into the stats.

Falcons' Backfield Fantasy Football Outlook

This one's easy: Allgeier has been the way more environment friendly again. He's averaging 6.1 yards per carry in comparison with Robinson's 4.1. With the Falcons holding Pro Football Focus‘ seventh-best run block grade, Bijan's yards per carry is nothing to jot down residence about.

It retains going on as Allgeier is logging 0.94 speeding yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C). Among qualifying gamers, this is able to have been the sixth-best mark in soccer a season in the past; that is how good Allgeier has been. Meanwhile, Robinson is at -0.33 RYOE/C. It was a very totally different story in 2023 with Bijan holding 0.38 RYOE/C in comparison with -0.38 from Allgeier. It made good sense why Robinson was taking practically 70% of the carries, however from what we have seen to this point, Bijan's workload shouldn't preserve climbing with weak effectivity.

Most of the priority applies to speeding makes an attempt as Robinson ought to nonetheless dominate the receiving work. He's racked up 16 targets and 15 catches via 4 video games whereas Allgeier has logged solely 3 targets and receptions. Even in Week 4, Bijan doubled Allgeier's receiving work with 4 targets and catches to his counterpart's two.

Robinson carries a 14.2% goal share whereas Allgeier has a measly 2.7%. Plus, Bijan has nonetheless been environment friendly with 10.7 receiving yards over expectation per contest.

That conjures up some confidence for Robinson going ahead, however what would fewer carries imply? It's tough to not fear about Bijan's crimson zone work if this continues. Neither participant bought crimson zone carries in Week 4, however the two backs are evenly cut up at a 50.0% crimson zone speeding makes an attempt share for the season.

Robinson has just one speeding landing this season. The alarms needs to be going off as Allgeier took 42.9% of the crimson zone carries in 2023 whereas Bijan took solely 27.4% of the speeding makes an attempt. Robinson's fantasy was held again from solely 4 speeding touchdowns a season in the past; after Week 4's cut up, we might be headed towards extra of the identical.

This is extra about taking away from Robinson's worth, although. Don't count on Allgeier to be a constant fantasy producer as he completed forty second in fantasy factors per recreation at his place final season (7.6). Allgeier is barely averaging 5.3 fantasy factors per recreation in half-PPR via 4 contests, as properly.

While Bijan nonetheless has intriguing PPR worth due to his receiving work, it is beginning to look unlikely that Robinson will ship on his RB3 ADP. Allgeier's effectivity as a rusher is posing a giant risk, as we noticed in Week 4.

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