Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The Dallas Stars are going to win the 2025 Stanley Cup.
That breaks a two-year streak of my choosing their Western Conference rivals, the Edmonton Oilers, to lastly ship a Stanley Cup to Connor McDavid (and, in flip, Canada for the first time since 1993). Missing that Oilers Cup prediction final season by only one victory disillusioned us each. OK, in all probability McDavid barely greater than me.
In breaking down the 2024-25 NHL season, I've determined that moderately than final season's Stanley Cup runner-up, it will be the two-time Western Conference runner-up that lifts the chalice at the finish of the season. The Stars misplaced to the Golden Knights in 2023 and the Oilers in 2024, each in six video games. The third time's the attraction for Peter DeBoer's workforce, a perfect mixture of affect veterans, gamers in their prime and invigorating younger abilities.
As is custom, I reached out to the basic supervisor of my Stanley Cup champion-in-waiting to let him know what's coming.
Me: I'm choosing you to win the Stanley Cup.
Jim Nill, basic supervisor of the Dallas Stars: I do not know if that is good or unhealthy, however thanks. I respect it.
Me: Usually, I really feel unhealthy about choosing teams like this as a result of that is putting additional expectations on them. But I do not really feel unhealthy about choosing you guys as a result of I really feel such as you've received expectations anyway, since you've been the bridesmaid twice in a row.
Nill: No, we do. Our guys are hungry. They know what it takes. People do not realize what a tricky street it was final yr. We needed to undergo Vegas and Colorado. Those are robust. And then he hit Edmonton, so it wasn't a straightforward, you understand, stroll by means of the playoffs for us. Stanley Cup champion, Stanley Cup champion after which Edmonton who went to the finals. But that is good, although. To win it all, you have to beat them all. That's our mentality.
My Stanley Cup Final is a Y2K throwback collection: The Dallas Stars towards the New Jersey Devils, who go from final season's embarrassing flop to Eastern Conference champions because of an offseason of good strikes and an everyday season of fine well being and nice goaltending.
This time, it is the Stars on prime, hoisting the Cup for the first time since 1999.
What about the remainder of the NHL? Here's my division-by-division breakdown of the projected standings. Playoff teams are bolded. Good luck to all 32 teams. Hope everybody has enjoyable on the market.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Toronto Maple Leafs
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Ottawa Senators
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Since 2020-21, the Maple Leafs have the fourth-best factors share (.671) of any workforce in the NHL. The solely divisional workforce ranked forward of them in that span was Boston (first, at .702). The Bruins have been seven factors higher than Toronto in the standings final season, which is what occurs when one workforce had the third-best goaltending in the NHL and the different workforce ranked twenty third in workforce save share.
Toronto has as soon as once more made wholesale adjustments to their crease, handing the reins to 26-year-old Joseph Woll and importing Anthony Stolarz from the Stanley Cup champion Panthers. He's considered one of three Florida gamers the Leafs signed, together with defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson and ahead Steven Lorentz, who enter a locker room that has fewer rings than an Olympic emblem.
This could possibly be a strong tandem. Stolarz (first) and Woll (eighth) have been in the prime 10 for objectives saved above anticipated (minimal 20 video games) final season. The “could” right here is extra associated to their stability than their play, as Woll and Stolarz have not precisely been fashions of well being.
But if the goaltending improves, the Leafs ought to take the Atlantic. The Core Four is aware of rack up 100-plus level seasons in their sleep, and competent goaltending ought to get them to 110-plus factors. Auston Matthews will rating 50-plus objectives. Mitch Marner can have a contract yr season. The inherent issues about this workforce — the affect of coach Craig Berube, the leveling up of gamers like Matthew Knies, the specious building of their backside six and the ghosts of earlier failures haunting them — will not manifest till the playoffs. That's principally custom now in Toronto.
The Panthers enter the season like they only awoke after an all-nighter at the Elbo Room in Fort Lauderdale: bleary-eyed, lacking a number of issues, however with a large glad grin as they bear in mind the get together.
As with most Stanley Cup winners, repeating the feat comes right down to how nicely GM Bill Zito has plugged his lineup holes. Out are Ekman-Larsson, Lorentz, Stolarz, Ryan Lomberg, Kevin Stenlund, Kyle Okposo and most notably Brandon Montour, the finest offensive defenseman. That's a whole lot of high quality depth out the door. In are Adam Boqvist, Nate Schmidt, Chris Driedger, A.J. Greer and Jesper Boqvist.
We shall see. Zito without end will get the advantage of the doubt based mostly on what number of swings he is related on, from Gustav Forsling to Sam Bennett — and, you understand, that entire “winning the Stanley Cup” factor.
Florida goes to regress, nevertheless it's a manageable regression. It could be completely surprising if Sam Reinhart hit 57 objectives once more, however his regression might find yourself being 40 tallies as a substitute. It could be stunning to see the Panthers lead the NHL in goals-against common once more due to adjustments in their lineup, however in all probability to not the level the place they're twenty first in the NHL like they have been in Paul Maurice's first season in Sunrise.
The Panthers have two dominant traces led by impactful stars in Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. Forsling in all probability has his “Jaccob Slavin hipster Norris Trophy candidate” second this season. I do not suppose they attain the heights of 110 factors once more, however I additionally do not suppose regular-season success is at all significant for a workforce that thinks it will probably win the Stanley Cup both as a division champion or as the final wild-card workforce. They've earned that swagger.
There are in all probability many round the NHL who would love the schadenfreude of watching the Lightning miss the playoffs after letting captain Steven Stamkos stroll for a youthful mannequin in Jake Guentzel. But the Lightning have some spark left — if Andrei Vasilevskiy is Andrei Vasilevskiy once more.
Please recall that Vasilevskiy underwent again surgical procedure earlier than final season that stored him out till Nov. 24. He by no means actually discovered his sport after that, going from 10.4 objectives saved above anticipated in 2022-23 to minus-11 in 2023-24. That's an unfathomable drop in high quality for a goalie thought-about to be the finest in the world till not too long ago. I anticipate an enormous rebound season for Vasilevskiy, and for a workforce that completed twenty ninth in 5-on-5 save share final season.
But the precise problem for the Lightning is not protecting the puck out of the internet however discovering methods to fill the reverse one. We know what we're getting out of Guentzel, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov: a line that posted a 59.7% anticipated objectives with Stamkos in all probability will get much more dominant with Guentzel. We do not know what we're getting from the remainder of the lineup.
Can Cam Atkinson discover his sport once more enjoying with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli? Can they get any manufacturing from the backside six by anybody not named Nick Paul or (probably) Conor Geekie? Can Ryan McDonagh supplant the offense from the again finish that left with Mikhail Sergachev for Utah?
The Lightning have been twenty fifth in anticipated objectives at 5-on-5 final season. I'm unsure they've finished sufficient to dramatically change that. But when the prime line cooks like a Michelin-starred restaurant, possibly that does not matter as a lot. It actually did not final season, when the prime line accounted for 45% of their whole workforce objectives.
The final week of the Bruins‘ contract tango with Jeremy Swayman is actually considered one of the funniest issues I've seen play out in that enviornment. You had workforce president Cam Neely letting his snark get the better of him by throwing out that “64 million reasons” comment, which allowed Swayman's camp to behave aggrieved about the public negotiating and ominously reference what its subsequent steps could be. Then you had Swayman saying on that Amazon Prime NHL present he'd do every little thing in his energy to stay with the Bruins, and so these subsequent steps turned apparent: He needed to remain in Boston, full cease.
A couple of days later, the drama ended with an eight-year contract and an $8.25 million common annual worth.
OK, not all the drama. Now we get to see what Swayman seems to be like as the anointed starter and we get to see what a Boston goaltending tandem seems to be like when it is Joonas Korpisalo as a substitute of Linus Ullmark. Maybe coach Jim Montgomery's system is so sturdy that they'll plug-and-play a downgrade like Korpisalo. Or possibly we see just a little wobble in the Bruins' protection acumen with out the finest goalie tandem in the NHL as its basis.
I nonetheless like the Bruins as a playoff workforce in half as a result of I actually like the signing of Elias Lindholm. He thrived as the glue man for high-end offensive stars in Calgary. Now he will get to journey shotgun with David Pastrnak, the finest goal-scoring winger in the league. Just having him reset their heart depth is significant.
But let's be actual: The vibes are off in Boston, and never simply because there may be fewer exaggerated goalie hugs. Coach Jim Montgomery enters the season on an expiring contract. He was praised by Neely and GM Don Sweeney earlier than the season, with the latter saying extension talks have been ongoing. But talks are usually not a contract. A contract is a contract. And Montgomery does not have one after this season — and doubtless does not get one after one other playoff failure or, worse, a failure to qualify for them. Neither destiny is all that outlandish.
In full disclosure, I locked in these predictions earlier than the NHL's opening video games in Prague, so after all I've immediate purchaser's regret on the Sabres, who had a score-adjusted 43.7% anticipated objectives fee in two video games. I've determined to go along with “the Devils are just that good” for my very own sanity, as a result of the Sabres did not appear like a playoff workforce in both of these Global Series video games.
The cause I've Buffalo breaking by means of a playoff workforce is straightforward: I consider that new coach Lindy Ruff goes to discover a solution to get them to play to their id with out sacrificing offense for protection.
The Sabres dropped from 3.02 anticipated objectives at even energy in 2022-23 to 2.77 final season, whereas their protection improved barely. Some of that may be attributed to Tage Thompson not being himself as a result of a wrist harm and another offensive regressions, however I believe there was additionally a elementary shift away from attacking offensively to insulating defensively.
The proof of idea for Ruff is the approach the Devils performed two years in the past: first in anticipated objectives, sixth in anticipated objectives towards at even energy. I see this Sabres roster as a hunk of clay he can form into that form of workforce — particularly with the pop Buffalo affords on the blue line with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and others. Lindy loves him some offense from the protection.
Of course, that Devils workforce additionally received a save or 10 from its goaltenders that season, too. Buffalo's playoff competition fully depends on whether or not Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the goalie they noticed and Devon Levi turns into the goalie they hoped they'd see final season. Both have been nicely into the plus facet on objectives saved above anticipated, which is promising.
But in the finish, the Sabres are going to have to attain their approach into breaking the longest playoff drought in the NHL (2010-11, when their coach was … Lindy Ruff). With Thompson, Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn, Zach Benson and others, this workforce is stacked with expertise. Ruff simply must discover a solution to unlock it whereas getting these gamers to play 200-foot video games. And I believe he is proven he can. Ask Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.
I had the Senators as a playoff workforce final season as a result of I severely overrated the goaltending tandem of Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg. I'd now be underrating the tandem of Ullmark and Forsberg, as a result of I do suppose there's an opportunity that new coach Travis Green's workforce breaks by means of this season if that goaltending coalesces.
It'll must, as a result of Ottawa has a traditional downside in the NHL: Some of its finest gamers are usually not all that good defensively. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris are all drags defensively. That stings much less when these gamers hit their marks offensively, which they did not final season. Tkachuk set a profession excessive in objectives (37) however dropped 9 factors. Stützle's manufacturing dropped steeply: 21 objectives and 20 factors down, yr over yr.
Good well being and nice goaltending might end result in a stunning season for Ottawa, however I am unable to belief it. I'm ready for one other Senators season outdoors of the playoffs, which implies one other offseason of hockey followers making an attempt to encourage SEAL Team Six to extract Tkachuk from the final years of his contract in Ottawa.
At this level, it isn't a lot that I haven't got religion in the “Yzerplan” in Detroit than it is that I could not describe it to you.
The Red Wings have missed the playoffs in yearly of Steve Yzerman's tenure as basic supervisor since he was employed in 2019. Their NHL roster skews older, and never simply because Patrick Kane is again. The prospect pool has a set of strong potential NHL contributors and some standouts, however nothing resembling a franchise participant, regardless of their time spent in the draft lottery. Is the plan to interrupt the playoff drought, give the youngsters some seasoning and the use that candy pizza cash to lure big-name free brokers to reinforce them? I do not know. Right now, the plan looks as if it is produced a bubble workforce with little hope of upward mobility.
Stevie Y. should be considering how a lot simpler this was with Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy as your pillars …
Still, there are individuals who see Detroit, moderately than Buffalo or Ottawa, as the breakthrough workforce in the Atlantic. Loads must break proper for that to occur, from the immediate affect of Simon Edvinsson, to large leaps ahead from big-contract earners Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, to Cam Talbot serving to to cool down a goaltending spot that had a forged of hundreds auditioning in coaching camp. The NHL is a greater place when the Red Wings are contending. I hope to go to that place once more someday.
Can one line carry a workforce in the NHL? Absolutely. We see it each season. Can the trio of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky carry the Canadiens to respectability? That's in all probability too heavy a elevate, however that trio goes to cook dinner this season if given the likelihood after having proven a lot pop final season.
Montreal is headed in the proper route. The Canadiens are a workforce you are going to get hold of on ESPN+, if to not watch the prime line however to see what spotlight machine Lane Hutson goes to do on the again finish as a rookie. An occasional combat from Arber Xhekaj, aka “WiFi,” does not damage the leisure worth both. Sam Montembeault may be considered one of the most underrated goalies in the NHL, even when a Montreal goaltender ever being “underrated” is moderately troublesome idea to understand.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
Carolina Hurricanes
Washington Capitals
Pittsburgh Penguins
Philadelphia Flyers
Columbus Blue Jackets
Roughly 70% of the time final season, the Devils didn't rating the first purpose of the sport. That's going to occur when your injury-depleted protection is simply too younger and your goaltending is close to the backside of the NHL (thirtieth). New Jersey's epic faceplant in 2023-24, dropping 31 factors in the standings yr over yr, was a byproduct of that “here we go again” dejection once they'd fall down 1-0. For each step ahead, it was a pratfall backward.
GM Tom Fitzgerald did a outstanding, aggressive job in the offseason of plugging his workforce's holes and turning the Devils again into the assured group that look poised to make a leap again into Stanley Cup competition. At least, in concept.
The goaltending is stabilized with Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, who was acquired late final season. Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon solidify their protection and add veteran voices to a dressing room that wanted extra of them. The ahead depth was prolonged with Stefan Noesen, Paul Cotter and Tomas Tatar. And Sheldon Keefe was employed not solely as a coach with some defensive bona fides, however as somebody who has managed a younger core of star gamers earlier than in Toronto.
Ultimately, getting kicked in the intestine final season was the smartest thing that might occur to this workforce. One season's luck guarantees nothing for the future. Effort issues. Details matter. Leadership issues. Fitzgerald has put the Devils in a place to problem for the Cup in the event that they're wholesome, mentally and bodily. It's on the Devils to see that potential by means of. I'm assured they'll.
Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba believes that is the final run for their veteran core, which is one thing you'd anticipate to listen to from a participant who will not be a part of that core for for much longer — and would not be now have been it not for his commerce safety.
But his level stands: Artemi Panarin (32), Chris Kreider (33), Mika Zibanejad (31), Vincent Trocheck (31) and Trouba (30) are all on the improper facet of 30, and the clock is ticking.
The group made the convention finals in two of the previous three seasons, and it will preserve contending as long as Igor Shesterkin is amongst the league's finest goaltenders, Adam Fox stays in the Norris Trophy dialog and Alexis Lafrenière is that point-per-game man befitting his standing as a primary total decide.
But for a workforce that ought to have some urgency about successful with this core, the Rangers did not do almost sufficient to bolster this roster in the offseason. Reilly Smith is a high quality complementary participant, however he isn't the winger that Zibanejad and Kreider want. The Rangers could not transfer Trouba and therefore have his diminishing returns on a blue line that is asking a whole lot of K'Andre Miller and Braden Schneider — particularly since relying on a wholesome Ryan Lindgren is like relying on the subway to run on time.
But they do have Matt Rempe again. Which is sweet for content material.
Many people are sleeping on the Islanders. Patrick Roy had this workforce buzzing at a .608 factors share clip in 37 video games after taking up for Lane Lambert final season. That's due in massive half to the proven fact that he dramatically improved their defensive zone play, which in flip led to fewer probabilities towards Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov. Those goalies stay the bedrock for this incarnation of the Isles, together with their prime 4 defensively — Alexander Romanov, Noah Dobson, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock. That's as strong a again finish as you may discover in the East.
They have the personnel to play the form of man-to-man protection that Roy prefers. A bit protection goes a great distance, particularly for a workforce that noticed 32% of its video games finish in extra time or a shootout final season, with 16 losses in additional time. What they want most nevertheless are offensive enhancements.
The Islanders have been twenty fourth in even-strength scoring final season (2.65 objectives per 60 minutes). Only the Capitals made the playoffs with a worse objectives per 60 common (2.36). Adding free agent Anthony Duclair to the prime line with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal give that trio a powerful finisher. Brock Nelson is sweet for 30-plus objectives, which is the place Kyle Palmieri ended up as nicely final season. The two greatest questions for me on the Islanders' offense: What have they got in Maxim Tsyplakov, a KHL import who labored his approach up the lineup this preseason; and whether or not captain Anders Lee can get again to being the 50-point ahead he was earlier than final season.
The Islanders are a playoff workforce whether or not or not Sorkin dominates once more, after an sudden regression in 2023-24. But it certain would assist the trigger if he did.
Those are the three playoff teams from the Metro Division, which implies that the Hurricanes are usually not one this season. Which is, admittedly, extraordinarily contrarian and deserves an evidence.
For context: ESPN BET offers the Hurricanes the third finest likelihood of successful the East and units their level whole at 100.5. They've made the playoffs in every of coach Rod Brind'Amour's six seasons behind the bench, enjoying to a factors share of .677 or higher in every of the final 4 campaigns. They gained the Metro for three straight seasons and have been three factors away from making it 4 in a row final season.
But attrition comes for each roster. Carolina misplaced Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei and Teuvo Teravainen throughout the offseason. That's a whole lot of expertise and a whole lot of institutional data. They misplaced Stefan Noesen. They watched Jake Guentzel select a convention rival, regardless of their overtures for him to remain.
New GM Eric Tulsky leads a superb entrance workplace that did what it might to fill these holes or stop new ones from opening up, like getting Martin Necas on a two-year bridge contract. I like William Carrier as part of the Jordan Staal line. I'm much less satisfied that Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere make up for what they misplaced on the blue line.
There are additionally lingering questions on their returning lineup, from Jesperi Kotkaniemi's viability as a second-line heart; to Frederik Andersen's well being and Pyotr Kochetkov's readiness to be “the guy”; as to if we're lastly seeing the decline of Brent Burns as an offensive drive.
I say they miss the playoffs by a hair. A short step again earlier than a leap ahead with the subsequent wave of Hurricanes, in gamers like defensemen Alexander Nikishin and Scott Morrow and forwards like Bradly Nadeau. I'm in all probability very improper on this one. I'd really wish to be improper on this one, as a result of watching playoff hockey in Raleigh is a real perk of this gig. But the prediction is made.
Entering final season, the Capitals and Penguins each appeared like teams in a state of stasis till their franchise icons lastly moved on. Then Washington, beneath first-year coach Spencer Carbery, snagged a wild-card spot final season (then was swept by the Rangers in the first spherical).
What was assumed to be a middling vessel that existed so Alex Ovechkin might break Wayne Gretzky's objectives document ended up being … a middling vessel that was goalied to the playoffs by an impressive Charlie Lindgren, enjoying behind a porous defensive and offensively challenged workforce.
Lindgren returns with a brand new tandem accomplice in ex-Golden Knights goalie Logan Thompson, who was considered one of a number of acquainted faces to affix Washington. Winger Andrew Mangiapane ought to bolster Ovechkin's line, with T.J. Oshie on long-term injured reserve. Matt Roy is a stout defensive defenseman imported from the Kings. Then got here the two actually daring strikes: Trading for Ottawa defenseman Jakob Chychrun, in the stroll yr of his contract; and assuming the subsequent seven seasons of heart Pierre-Luc Dubois' contract in a determined try and reload at heart after the Nicklas Backstrom/Evgeny Kuznetsov period ended.
On paper, the numbers say this can be a higher workforce than the one which made the playoffs final season. But there are actually solely two numbers that Capitals followers care about this season: No. 50, as in the anniversary season for this franchise; and No. 42, as in the variety of objectives Ovechkin must go Gretzky. (I predict he does it this season.) Everything else, at the least for now, is gravy.
The Penguins will enhance by a number of factors season-over-season on the energy of their energy play alone. How this assemblage of expertise clicked at only a 15.3% clip final season is confounding. Special teams are cyclical, and the Penguins are a season faraway from hitting at a 21.7% fee. The scored 23 extra objectives on the energy play in 2022-23 than final season. When you take into account the Penguins had the thirty first worst factors share in the NHL in one-goal video games (.353) in 2023-24 … yeah, these objectives matter. Hopefully new assistant coach — and Mike Sullivan doppelgänger — David Quinn can reverse their power-play fortunes.
Sullivan is in the first season of a contract extension that carries him by means of the 2026-27 season, signed earlier than GM Kyle Dubas arrived. The majority of followers assume he will not see the finish of that contract in Pittsburgh, given the present trajectory of the workforce. This season tasks to be the third straight outdoors of the playoffs, for a franchise that hasn't gained a playoff spherical since 2018, all of it beneath Sullivan.
The Penguins nonetheless have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang. They nonetheless have Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell driving with Crosby and Malkin, respectively. Squint arduous sufficient at the depth on this workforce, and you possibly can virtually persuade your self that Crosby might drag them to the playoffs and himself to a Hart Trophy nomination in the course of.
And you then bear in mind the goaltending battery is Tristan Jarry, who cannot be trusted in efficiency nor stability; and Alex Nedeljkovic, who was analytically worse than Jarry final season regardless of an 18-7-7 document.
Another season outdoors the postseason. Another season that squanders our probabilities of seeing Crosby and Malkin play significant video games — at the least in Pittsburgh.
The Flyers are a workforce I struggled to position this season, as a result of I really suppose they've some palpable upside.
John Tortorella's workforce was tenth in anticipated objectives towards final season at even energy, which units issues up nicely for Samuel Ersson and Ivan Fedotov as their full-season goalie tandem. They downside final season was that the Flyers could not rating (twenty seventh in objectives per sport), and that is the place Matvei Michkov comes in.
The dynamic 19-year-old rookie has a great deal of offensive creativity and goal-scoring means. He's going to have a steep studying curve towards NHL defenders. But there isn't any denying that he has the potential to have a transformative impact on the Flyers' offense and the franchise's psyche, in a lot the identical approach that Kirill Kaprizov did for the Wild. As I reported not too long ago, the assumed friction between flashy younger rookie and curmudgeonly coach may be overstated. Remember that when Torts scratches him by Game 15.
I'm additionally intrigued to see if Jamie Drysdale can take a leap with Nick Seeler as his accomplice — and keep in the lineup, which is normally the concern with Drysdale.
Whatever occurs with the Blue Jackets this season appears so inconsequential in the context of their grief. The surprising demise of star winger Johnny Gaudreau in August has impacted the franchise in each approach, on and off the ice, and can proceed to take action all through this season.
I stay up for these moments of pleasure discovered throughout what tasks to be one other lengthy season in Columbus. Like the continued maturation of gamers equivalent to Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko and David Jiricek. Like the large gathering of Jackets followers at the Horseshoe for that Stadium Series sport towards Detroit. This sport ought to be joyful, as Johnny Hockey would remind us with each stride, shot and smile.
CENTRAL DIVISION
Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche
Nashville Predators
Utah Hockey Club
Winnipeg Jets
Minnesota Wild
St. Louis Blues
Chicago Blackhawks
I bear in mind what Tyler Seguin mentioned after the Stars misplaced to Edmonton in the Western Conference finals, the second straight season that Dallas was ousted one spherical earlier than the Stanley Cup Final:
“We went through a gauntlet and beat some really good teams and knew we had something special. We lost to a team that we thought we could beat and sometimes, that's playoffs. Sometimes, it's that one bounce, that one goal, that one save. That's why we all love it. That's why it's the hardest damn trophy in the world to win.”
No lies instructed. The Stars have been a 113-point workforce final season that fought by means of the Golden Knights and the Avalanche to get to Connor McDavid and the Oilers, who dropped them in six video games. Dallas is past battle examined by now, and that features a wave of younger reinforcements that gained important expertise over these final two runs, like Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven and Thomas Harley.
Johnston's a key to this season. He probably replaces Joe Pavelski on the prime line between Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, and that is an improve: As a lot as we love Pavs, the man completely hit the wall in the Western Conference finals, with zero factors in the collection, his final earlier than retirement. Johnston goes to convey a few of the issues that Pavelski did to that line, whereas additionally bringing extra pace and puck possession.
The reality is that veterans like Pavelski and Ryan Suter have been in all probability too “veteran” for the Stars in this second. Now the age ceiling is captain Jamie Benn (35), ahead Matt Duchene (34) and Seguin (33). Right behind them are gamers in their prime: Hintz (28), goalie Jake Oettinger (26), star defenseman Miro Heiskanen (25) and Robertson (25). Right behind them are the subsequent wave, with Johnston, Stankoven & Co.
I've an idea referred to as the “Hockey Parfait” in which each profitable workforce has to have completely different layers of expertise, all pushing one another to succeed, each taste in stability to type a delicacy. I believe GM Jim Nill, whereas not a pastry chef by commerce, has constructed a scrumptious one this season.
This is a really, superb hockey workforce, and the second is now to grow to be an incredible one.
The Avalanche completely confound me. I spent many hours this preseason meditating on how good I believe this workforce may be, and at all times come again to a collection of questions for which I haven't got the solutions.
When does Gabriel Landeskog return, and in what capability? Can they depend on Valeri Nichushkin? When does Artturi Lehkonen return? Is the protection deep sufficient? Does Justus Annunen push out Alexandar Georgiev as the starter, or do they preserve working it again with a man who posted a .894 save share in the playoffs final season? Who do they add to their prime six at the commerce deadline? When is Mikko Rantanen getting paid, precisely?
The irritating factor about all of this uncertainty is that the Avalanche are two seasons faraway from a Stanley Cup championship and often have 4 of the finest hockey gamers alive on the ice at the identical time: Nathan MacKinnon, the reigning league MVP; Rantanen, considered one of the prime 5 scoring wingers in the NHL; Cale Makar, a generational expertise on protection; and Devon Toews, who's principally the Pippen to Makar's Jordan on that blue line.
I ought to really feel “Dallas-and-Edmonton” assured about the Avalanche as a Stanley Cup contender in the West, and I do not. Not with out readability for all the questions above. And not with out a few extra championship-quality gamers in the combine — both inside candidates that elevate their video games or commerce deadline additions. Which is to say that due respect to Casey Mittelstadt and Ross Colton, I'm nonetheless ready for them to interchange what Nazem Kadri gave them.
The smartest thing about Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault signing with the Predators — in addition to having an opportunity to put on their Canadian tuxedos round city with no disgrace — is that they each match the historic dogma of this franchise.
Nashville has at all times had a defiant streak, what with being a “nontraditional market” and all. It has additionally supplied a touchdown spot for different teams' high-profile castaways: Think P.Ok. Subban or Filip Forsberg or Steve Sullivan. And it has additionally been just a little starstruck, too: Remember signing Paul Kariya as a free agent and buying and selling for Peter Forsberg?
Stamkos and Marchessault add some offensive wizardry to a lineup that had a better anticipated objectives (3.04) than precise objectives (2.94) at even energy; and to an influence play (21.6%) that ranked sixteenth total in the NHL final season. They're anticipated to flank spunky scoring heart Tommy Novak, establishing a second scoring line opponents need to sweat out behind the Forsberg-Ryan O'Reilly-Gustav Nyquist group.
But the Predators made two different strikes that cement them as a playoff workforce and potential Cup contender for me. I like the Brady Skjei addition on protection, as an improve over Ryan McDonagh. He's not a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman like Roman Josi — who I believe wins it once more this season — however he brings an analogous stability of offense and protection. Obviously, securing goalie Juuse Saros on an eight-year deal price $7.74 million yearly is important to their success — and cheaper than Jeremy Swayman's new deal, too.
I cherished what GM Barry Trotz and coach Andrew Brunette began final yr in Nashville. I've actually excited to see what Phase 2 seems to be like this season.
The Utah Hockey Club may not have a nickname but, however it's going to have a playoff berth this season.
I had one NHL basic supervisor inform me that he thought the Arizona Coyotes (RIP) would have made the playoff reduce final season had their marketing campaign not been derailed by the relocation information leaking. It's arduous to argue with that: They have been 23-19-3 in late January after which spun out right into a 14-game winless streak, choosing up simply two loser factors in that span. After that, their playoff hopes have been scuttled like an Alex Meruelo enviornment bid.
The relocation to Salt Lake City brings a contemporary begin, a wave of fan enthusiasm and possession prepared to tackle precise NHL gamers making precise NHL salaries. Augmenting what was already a strong younger workforce with defensemen Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino and Ian Cole, whereas including former Panther Kevin Stenlund as a depth ahead. All of them assist make them a sounder defensive workforce in entrance of Connor Ingram and Karel Vejmelka, which could possibly be considered one of the finest tandems in the NHL if Vejmelka can play like he did two seasons in the past.
They're not the deepest workforce, particularly at heart, however they've the potential for two robust scoring traces: one anchored by captain Clayton Keller and one anchored by a dynamic duo of Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther. If Utah is near the playoffs, it has a struggle chest of draft picks it might use to reinforce this lineup — and house owners in Ryan and Ashley Smith who've proven no hesitancy in taking up wage, in contrast to the workforce's earlier incarnation.
But largely, I'm choosing Utah to make the playoffs as a result of this new fan base goes to place wind in its gross sales, enthusiastically supporting a brand new workforce in city. Sure, a few of them won't be able to see the entire rink, however they gamers will hear them, darn it. Provided they do not eat too lots of these $3 hot dogs and want a nap by the third interval.
With Utah in, somebody needed to be out, and that somebody is the Jets.
The Jets have been a 110-point workforce final season by outscoring their analytics and having Connor Hellebuyck flip the Eleventh-best workforce in anticipated objectives towards per 60 minutes (2.65) into the second finest workforce in precise objectives towards (2.05) at even energy. Head coach Rick Bowness retired, affiliate coach Scott Arniel was employed and the Jets enter this season seeking to erase the reminiscence of their first-round collapse to the Avalanche.
The time period “mushy middle” describes that space of the standings the place teams are neither nice nor horrible, and I'd apply the identical time period to the Jets' roster — and never simply because the heart spot is their weakest space, led by Mark Scheifele, a No. 2 heart in top-line clothes. Although they do have an elite defensive heart in Adam Lowry, this can be a workforce that does not at all times defend persistently.
There's offensive pop in the ahead group with gamers equivalent to Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Cole Perfetti, however not sufficient of it. I've received confidence in Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo as a prime pairing. I lack it for the different two defensive tandems — I believe this workforce will miss the truculence of Dillon, for instance. Going from Laurent Brossoit to Kaapo Kahkonen or Eric Comrie backing up Hellebuyck is a downgrade.
Again, they outkicked their protection on offense final season, and have been carried by Hellebuyck in a season that noticed him win the Vezina Trophy and end sixth for the Hart. I believe an improved division means they take a step again in the standings, enjoying nearer to their underlying numbers, and end simply out of the cash.
I believe the Wild are a few yr away from doing one thing actually attention-grabbing in his division.
A yr from now, they will not have the $14.8 million wage cap albatross of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts, which is able to enable GM Bill Guerin to deal with a few of the scoring wants on this roster. A yr from now, Marco Rossi and Brock Faber can have had one other season of expertise as very important elements of this roster. A yr from now, Marc-Andre Fleury shall be a visitor analyst on a French-language hockey broadcast and Jesper Wallstedt can have an everyday spot in an NHL tandem.
There's at all times an opportunity that Minnesota performs past expectations this season if their scoring ranges up. The Wild have been the finest workforce in the NHL final season in even-strength anticipated objectives towards beneath each Dean Evason and John Hynes. They'll want offensive contributions that transcend Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy, who accounted for over 42% of their objectives final season.
But almost definitely, they're going to simply wait for subsequent yr.
I believe it is in the Blues‘ finest pursuits to have the finest draft lottery odds doable at this level, however GM Doug Armstrong's teams have a cussed approach of at all times competing. It's type of in the franchise's DNA, having had just one season with a factors share of lower than .500 since 2008-09.
The Blues are in that purgatory of getting nice gamers in their prime — Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich — however not sufficient of them; a middling blue line with 5 gamers nicely north of 30 years previous, 4 of them with commerce safety and considered one of them (Torey Krug) out for the season; and a goaltender in Jordan Binnington who is sweet sufficient to maintain a workforce from ever being as unhealthy as the Blues ought to wish to be at this level. Even as a Binnington skeptic, his posting of a 14.9 objectives saved above anticipated final season is completely stellar.
The profitable provide sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are a sign that Armstrong is aware of this workforce must get youthful and, particularly in the latter case, quicker. But these alternatives are few and much between in the offseason. The most direct path to that finish is the draft. I concern the Blues shall be simply ok to not maximize their probabilities there.
One NHL basic supervisor not too long ago instructed me he was excessive on the Blackhawks. “Not playoffs high. Just ‘no more freebie points' high,” he mentioned.
That checks. I believe the Blackhawks might simply have a 20-point enchancment yr over yr if Connor Bedard is wholesome.
Their prime six was bolstered by a trio of imports: winger Tyler Bertuzzi, an incredible passer and a ache to play towards; speedy Ilya Mikheyev, who can clear 20 objectives; and Teuvo Teravainen, a quintessential glue man. We know what we've in Bedard after he tallied 22 objectives in 68 video games as an 18-year-old final season. They sky's the restrict. What makes the Blackhawks higher is a second line anchored by Taylor Hall and Philipp Kurashev, who quietly broke out with 54 factors final season; and a 3rd line of Nick Foligno, Jason Dickinson and Joey Anderson that approach outplayed its underlying numbers final season.
Adding Alec Martinez and TJ Brodie to the blue line is a leap in high quality, even at their superior ages. (In equity, Brodie is simply 34 however there are some miles on these tires.) Petr Mrazek stays a goalie who seems to be like he can win the Vezina for about three weeks each few months, earlier than regressing to the imply.
PACIFIC DIVISION
Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights
Los Angeles Kings
Seattle Kraken
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
San Jose Sharks
After watching that Amazon Prime NHL present, I'm not quickly going to overlook that picture of Oilers star Connor McDavid brazenly weeping in the locker room after Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. Not simply for the novelty of seeing an elite athlete succumb to their feelings in a shedding effort — and, we should always be aware, signing off on having the world see it too — however in understanding how a lot this all meant to McDavid.
It's one factor to proclaim “Cup or bust.” It's one other to know the way it impacts a celebrity when the final possibility was “bust.”
It's not troublesome to glean why the Oilers are the Cup favourite this season. The Panthers misplaced in the Final and returned to win the Cup the following season, so why not the Oilers? Especially when McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been that gutted after shedding. Especially when that is in all probability the finest workforce they've performed on, with the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson to an already loaded roster. Especially once they seem to have discovered the proper head coach (Kris Knoblauch), the proper goaltender (Stuart Skinner) and a No. 1 defenseman (Evan Bouchard) after so a few years of looking out.
I believe they win the Pacific with ease, return to the playoffs … and wait till subsequent yr, failing to get out of the convention. But hey, with Draisaitl signing his extension with the assumption that McDavid will do the identical, at the least there is not that very same apocalyptic urgency that the Oilers had final postseason about their window to win closing.
Rick Tocchet had an hermetic case for the Jack Adams final season, what with the Canucks going from a goals-against common of three.61 in 2022-23 to sixth in the league at 2.70 final season, his first full time period as head coach. He turned them right into a division champion and a workforce that got here perilously near saving McDavid's Stanley Cup Final tears by eliminating the Oilers in the second spherical, solely to lose to Edmonton in Game 7.
There's naturally going to be some regression from a workforce that hit so many excessive notes final season, however how a lot of it, actually? Does J.T. Miller dip to 99 factors once more? Is Quinn Hughes solely a degree per sport defenseman? Maybe Brock Boeser falls off his 40-goal tempo, however the Canucks would in all probability simply be blissful if he hits 81 video games once more.
One man that may prime his efficiency final season is Elias Pettersson. I'm not the greatest Jake DeBrusk fan as a result of his streakiness, however I like the match with him and Petey. I do not suppose the star heart flirting with 100 factors this season is not out of the query.
But due respect to Arturs Silovs, the Canucks' championship aspirations relaxation on the well being of goalie Thatcher Demko. He'll in all probability miss the first month of the season after ending second for the Vezina final season. If he can keep wholesome and play to his means … boy, there's loads to love with this Canucks workforce. But it is a very robust division.
“Where are their wingers?” requested one NHL government once we have been chatting about the Golden Knights earlier than the season. It's a good query for these of us unfamiliar with Pavel Dorofeyev, unconvinced Alexander Holtz can put it all collectively or unaware that Victor Olofsson was nonetheless a first-liner in the NHL. (Chemistry with Jack Eichel trumps all preconceptions.)
This is not the first or final time that depth has seemingly been drained from a Golden Knights workforce. But they're nonetheless dealing from a stacked deck: Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson, Ivan Barbashev. They'll miss Marchessault, after all, and particularly in the postseason. But they're going to generate sufficient offense.
In between a thinner ahead group and a good goaltending battery of Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov stands the cause the Golden Knights are going to make the playoffs and doubtless win a spherical: Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanifin and Nicolas Hague, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud. As strong a sextet of defensemen as there are in the NHL, and a steadying presence for a sometimes tumultuous workforce.
I used to be very tempted to jettison the Kings from my playoff image after Drew Doughty's harm, which might sideline him for half the season. I'm hoping it is a lot much less time than that; however even when it is not, I believe the Kings have sufficient right here to remain in a playoff spot in the Pacific.
Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield and Phillip Danault are the major cause why. Most teams in the NHL would kill for that form of heart depth. A fading celebrity with gasoline left in the tank; a budding celebrity who's solely scratched the floor; and considered one of the finest defensive facilities in the sport. That's a stabilizing drive for the Kings, in a season stuffed with different query marks.
Byfield's the actual key right here. He discovered his sport on the wing final season. After the Pierre-Luc Dubois debacle, it was time for the pure heart to shift to the center. They've flanked him with Kevin Fiala and Warren Foegele in the preseason, a duo that units Byfield up for success. They want him to thrive in this spot to have a prayer for the playoffs.
Los Angeles has a brand new coach in Jim Hiller, who was their interim bench boss final season after Todd McLellan was fired. They went 21-12-1 with Hiller, who maintained that defense-first was nonetheless the proper path for this workforce. That's in all probability clever contemplating their diminished blue line, and having to play in entrance of a specious goaltending tandem of Darcy Kuemper and David Rittich.
It's implausible they received something of NHL high quality again for dumping the final seven years of Dubois' contract, however Kuemper was considered one of the worst goalies in the league final season analytically: minus-15.6 objectives saved above anticipated. Woof.
The Kraken are one other workforce on which I struggled to get a learn. I actually preferred their offseason. Assuming he bounces again from a down season, Chandler Stephenson strengthens their heart spot and buys time for each Matty Beniers and Shane Wright to mature. In protecting each of the Panthers' Stanley Cup Final runs, I've realized to like Brandon Montour as a participant and a persona. He brings an incredible puck-moving presence to a protection that wanted somebody like that past Vince Dunn.
They be part of a workforce that is stunningly common. Solid however not spectacular. In the hunt however not a real contender. They're frustratingly paying homage to Ron Francis' teams as basic supervisor of the Carolina Hurricanes: Middling at every little thing, offensively challenged and — critically — always falling wanting the playoff reduce.
New head coach Dan Bylsma wants to search out methods to activate this workforce's even-strength scoring. I believe we all anticipated some degree of regression after their ridiculous efficiency at even energy in Year 2: 3.39 objectives per 60 minutes and an 11.2% capturing share. But final season's drop (2.25, 8.0%) was so extreme it in all probability gave a number of gamers the bends. Can he flip round a few of these down offensive years, significantly that of Beniers?
As you possibly can inform, I'm just a little on the fence about this Kraken workforce. It has the potential to leap as much as the fourth spot in the division if issues pattern in the proper route and somebody like Wright has a breakthrough. But that will additionally rely upon Joey Daccord repeating his 50-game dazzler from final season (.916 save share!) and Philipp Grubauer being one thing higher than his minus-9.4 objectives saved above common. And I'm skeptical that occurs in each goaltenders' instances.
The distinction between Anaheim and the two teams that may end in again of it's that the Ducks are not actively making an attempt to lose. It's simply that they are so disappointing in some areas that they will not be capable to assist it.
Coach Greg Cronin managed to squeeze out a good defensive season from a workforce that appears so disinterested by the idea. The Ducks have been twenty third in the NHL in anticipated objectives towards at even energy (2.85), which marks a outstanding turnaround from the earlier season once they have been final in the league, at 3.52. Veteran Radko Gudas, named Ducks captain in the offseason, helped stabilize issues on the blue line and stability out the detached protection from younger gamers like Mason McTavish.
There's a ton of expertise in the pond for the Ducks. They're one other workforce you hearth up the ESPN+ to look at, and never simply due to their candy new sweaters. Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson? Yes please. Watching Olen Zellweger grow to be a legit NHL defenseman after his “soft launch” final season? Sure. The persevering with journey of Trevor Zegras earlier than his inevitable commerce? Absolutely.
It's all about progress and promise for the Ducks this season. They would possibly quack a bit louder in the standings if John Gibson (when wholesome) and Lukas Dostal steal a sport right here and there, however largely we're right here to look at for which ducklings are able to fly.
The Flames aren't dummies. They can see what occurred in Edmonton after a number of lean years and a few draft lottery luck. They know from their very own current historical past that their finest seasons have been the product of homegrown abilities turning into stars … earlier than deciding to maneuver elsewhere. There's one clear path for GM Craig Conroy to take with this franchise, and it is the one the place they journey and fall down the standings in the Pacific Division.
To that finish: The Flames mentioned goodbye to Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, Jacob Markstrom, Chris Tanev, Tyler Toffoli and Nikita Zadorov over the final two seasons. They've finished minimal work to interchange them: Bringing on free brokers like Anthony Mantha and Ryan Lomberg this summer time and handing the crease over to Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar? The Flames are, in reality, a workforce.
They nonetheless have some legit game-altering gamers. After a nightmarish December (one level in 13 video games), Jonathan Huberdeau really completed the season robust. MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson are higher than common on protection. Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund could be splendid two-way facilities on any variety of contenders. One wonders the place a few of them shall be enjoying in the close to future if this all goes in keeping with plan in Calgary.
The Sharks are going to be horrible, however I believe they're going to be “fun bad” and never simply “bad bad.”
At least that is my hope. It actually all depends upon whether or not first-year coach Ryan Warsofsky permits Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith to let their scoring freak flags fly as rookies or if he will, like, make them backcheck. Celebrini has a Calder Trophy in him if the Sharks enable him to only blossom offensively, particularly with having an previous scoring hand like Toffoli in the combine to assist create and bury these probabilities. The Blackhawks weren't trying for Bedard to be Patrice Bergeron in Year 1. The identical courtesy ought to be prolonged to Macklin.
This fan base wants the visceral jolt of carefree phenom scoring whereas the losses mount. Another yr in the tank at The Tank, and every little thing's arising teal in 2025-26.
