Dan Graziano, senior NFL nationwide reporter
Let's open NFL Week 4 overreactions by taking a visit again by means of the mists of time, to a bygone age referred to as … every week and a half in the past. Things have been totally different again then. Gas nonetheless price somewhat greater than $3 per gallon in lots of locations. The 1962 Mets nonetheless held the Major League Baseball report for most losses in a season. Far fewer individuals knew about that baby pygmy hippo in Thailand. And the Saints' offense was about to take over the NFL.
It was means again in these sepia-toned days that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets seemed completely superior in a 24-3 Thursday evening victory over the Patriots. The efficiency, following a few lackluster ones to begin the season, was hailed as the long-awaited breakthrough. This was what it was supposed to appear to be — the delayed promise of “Insert Rodgers, become playoff team” on full show as he zipped pinpoint passes throughout the area and appeared like his much-younger self the few instances he took off and ran. Fans rejoiced as the workforce went into the mini-bye feeling unbelievable about the Jets' short-term future as a legit AFC contender.
Well, on Sunday, a well-rested and assured Jets workforce misplaced 10-9 at residence to Bo Nix and the Broncos. And now we now have to a minimum of contemplate the risk that, 10 days earlier, we would have been … overreacting. Yeah, let's begin this week's overreactions — the place we decide a number of potential takeaways as official or irrational — with the Jets.
Jump to:
Will the Jets make the playoffs?
Is Daniels in the MVP combine?
Will the Chiefs add a WR?
How sizzling is Pederson's seat?
Should the Rams commerce Stafford?
The Jets nonetheless aren't a playoff workforce
I imply, this was an objectively horrible loss, proper? The Broncos have been 8.5-point underdogs coming off their first win of the season — an admittedly spectacular Week 3 choice over the Bucs in Tampa Bay — and had spent the week coaching in West Virginia. The Broncos scored 10 factors, and that does not actually paint the entire image of their offensive futility. Denver had 186 complete yards and 12 first downs. Nix threw for a whopping 60 yards and averaged 2.4 yards per go try, which, sure, is a traditionally low quantity. It's the third-lowest common yards per try by any quarterback with 25 or extra passes in a sport in historical past. The solely two worse outings got here in 1965 and 1963. Broncos coach Sean Payton was born in 1963.
Rodgers mentioned after the sport that when his protection holds the different workforce to 10 factors, he ought to win each time — and he nearly does. Rodgers is now 33-2 when his opponent scores 10 or fewer factors. This was the first such loss he suffered since Dec. 12, 2010, when the Packers fell 7-3 to the Lions in a sport Rodgers left in the second quarter with a concussion. He did not go away Sunday's sport in the second quarter. He stayed the entire time, and his workforce did not rating a single landing.
The Jets are 2-2 and head to London subsequent week to play the 4-0 Vikings. And you thought 10 days wasn't a very long time!
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Look, I'm not going to inform you the issues aren't legit. They are. A workforce able to taking part in a sport like the one the Jets performed Sunday has no proper to sit there and assume it will be a playoff workforce. This stays a training workers that has but to show, as two others in its division have, that it will probably handle a workforce by means of the ups and downs of a season and into the postseason. So, till these questions are answered, they may proceed to be requested.
That mentioned, the lesson of the Jets' previous two weeks is that we must always not overreact to one single sport. They nonetheless have all the superb gamers they'd 10 days in the past, and it is utterly cheap to suppose they're going to finish the season as a great workforce and even a playoff workforce. Sunday's efficiency was only a sobering reminder that nothing is clinched but; in truth, removed from it. This is a proficient roster with work to do earlier than it will get the place it needs to go. Sunday's outing did not change that, regardless of how ugly it was. And it was downright hideous.
Jayden Daniels goes to be in the MVP dialog
Six days after his dazzling “Monday Night Football” debut in opposition to Cincinnati, the Commanders rookie quarterback delivered a superb encore. Daniels was 26-for-30 passing for 233 yards and a landing and added 68 dashing yards and two extra TDs in a 42-14 street victory over the Cardinals.
It was the third straight win for the Commanders, who're 3-1 and in sole possession of first place in the NFC East. They are averaging 30.3 factors and have scored extra factors every week than they did the week earlier than. One of the most notable issues that occurred Sunday was that Washington punter Tress Way really punted. Once. It was the first time the Commanders had punted since Week 1.
Daniels has 218 dashing yards this season, which is the second most by a QB in his first 4 profession video games since the Super Bowl period started in 1966, per ESPN Research. First on the checklist is former Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III, who had 234 in 2012.
0:24
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Weird and sudden issues actually at all times occur in the NFC East. The Cowboys have main flaws. The injury-riddled Eagles appear to have loads to work out. The Giants are in Year 13 of their rebuild. Someone has to win the division. That's a league rule. Why not Washington? Heck, the Commanders' protection seemed respectable Sunday for the first time all season, and with coach Dan Quinn working it, you had to suppose it could eventually.
Daniels' completion charge is 82.1%. And sure, that has to come down. After all, it's the highest charge over any four-game span in NFL historical past (minimal of 90 go makes an attempt), per ESPN Research. But if Daniels retains delivering together with his arm and legs and this workforce finds its means into the playoffs? You're completely proper he will probably be in the MVP dialog. The solely rookie to win MVP was Jim Brown in 1957, so the odds are fairly clearly in opposition to Daniels. But I feel he is for actual — and for that purpose, his workforce is perhaps too.
The Chiefs want to make a commerce for a large receiver
The two-time defending champion Chiefs improved to 4-0 with a 17-10 victory over the Chargers. The seven-point choice improved their common margin of victory to 5.3. Their historical past makes it very clear that we should not care the way it appears to be like so long as they're successful. They have a spot of their trophy case the place they maintain the advantage of the doubt.
However, it was fairly alarming to see younger star large receiver Rashee Rice carted off the area in Sunday's first half with what appears to be like to be a big knee damage. Through the first three weeks, Rice led the NFL in receptions (24) and was in the prime two in yards (288), targets (32) and workforce goal share (37%). Wideout Hollywood Brown, Kansas City's prized offseason free agent signing, is already out for the season with a shoulder damage, and beginning working again Isiah Pacheco continues to be out whereas he recovers from a damaged fibula. That's a number of key gamers to be with out, particularly with 13 regular-season video games remaining.
Sure, tight finish Travis Kelce had a giant sport, and rookie large receiver Xavier Worthy made his share of huge performs (together with a 54-yard TD catch). But the Chiefs are getting skinny fairly shortly at the offensive talent positions. And as they place themselves to strive to turn out to be the first workforce ever to win three Super Bowls in a row, they may want to have their antennae up on the commerce market.
0:49
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Oh, I've little doubt the Chiefs will strive to add a WR earlier than the Nov. 5 deadline. But should you've adopted the Chiefs in any respect the previous two seasons, you realize they do not want top-end large receiver expertise to win championships. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will work out how to alter, and in the event that they're unable to land a giant fish resembling, say, DeAndre Hopkins on the commerce market, they're going to nonetheless be simply as harmful come January and February.
You can level up any variety of flaws in the means the Chiefs have scraped by in 4 video games, however you'll be able to't argue this: No one in the league proper now could be higher than this workforce is at simply plain successful a soccer sport.
Doug Pederson will probably be the first head coach to lose his job this season
The Jaguars put forth a much more respectable effort Sunday in Houston than they did final week in Buffalo. But they nonetheless misplaced, and meaning they're 0-4. They're additionally 1-9 since they gained in Houston in November to enhance to 8-3 final season. At that point, Trevor Lawrence & Co. seemed poised to dominate the AFC South for years to come, and Pederson seemed like he'd landed in the excellent spot to repeat the work he did in Philadelphia, the place he coached the Eagles to their first and solely Super Bowl title.
At this level, after having given Lawrence a large contract extension throughout the offseason that features totally assured cash in every of the subsequent 4 years, the Jaguars have to be questioning about their future. Jacksonville is thirty first in level margin at minus-49, above solely the Panthers (minus-56). This has been a sudden and stunning collapse, and a workforce proprietor who believed his workforce was a Super Bowl contender 10 months in the past cannot be proud of the place issues stand.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
We can argue all we wish about whose fault that is, however the details are that Pederson is meant to be the form of coach who develops quarterbacks and runs a top-level offense. Lawrence is not creating, and this offense isn't superb. The Jaguars are twenty sixth in offensive anticipated factors added this season. So, honest or not, the blame falls on the coach on this league earlier than it falls on the quarterback who simply bought prolonged at $55 million per 12 months.
Pederson has moved to the entrance of the sizzling seat line. And whereas we have no info to point out that he is in any imminent hassle, if the Jaguars maintain shedding, that is the form of state of affairs the place possession decides it has to make some type of change in some unspecified time in the future. That may imply at the finish of the season and even probably sooner. The Jags have a house sport in opposition to the Colts in Week 5 then back-to-back London video games in opposition to the Bears and the Patriots. This is their get-right stretch, and so they want to make the most of it.
The Rams want to commerce Matthew Stafford and take into consideration the future
The Rams misplaced at Chicago on Sunday. And whereas there's nothing inherently mistaken with that, it is also not prefer it was Mike Ditka and Mike Singletary beating them.
What's alarming about the Rams isn't that they misplaced to Chicago and even that they are 1-3. It's that they're by far the workforce most devastated by accidents. And with the variety of key gamers lacking on each side of the ball, it is robust to see them being aggressive anytime quickly. If not for a stone-cold miracle comeback win in opposition to the 49ers in Week 3, the Rams can be 0-4, which is the identical report as that of the Jaguars. The technical soccer time period for that's “not what you want.”
Stafford is a 36-year-old quarterback with a Super Bowl title in his pocket and nobody left to throw to in L.A. He is scheduled to earn $27 million in 2025 and $31 million in 2026, with solely $4 million of that cash assured. He's 14th in Total QBR (55.6) regardless of not having Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua working routes. The Dolphins or Raiders would most likely a minimum of take the name from the Rams on Stafford proper now, proper?
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Rams are 1-3, not 0-10. Sure, if these shadows stay unchanged and the Rams do not win one other sport between now and the Nov. 5 commerce deadline, possibly we have a look at this once more. But I extremely doubt that coach Sean McVay — and even Stafford, for that matter — thinks this season is already over.
Stafford, by all accounts, actually likes it in Los Angeles. At least a few of these injured guys will probably be again sooner or later. And it is not like Stafford's successor is already on the roster and apparent to all. The Rams' backup quarterback is Jimmy Garoppolo, for goodness' sake. You need to strive promoting tickets on the thought that you just're future targeted with Garoppolo at quarterback in 2024? It's not fairly proper now, but it surely's additionally nonetheless very early.
