Analyzing the Detroit Tigers playoff chances with 5 games remaining

DETROIT – Tuesday was one other nice day for the Detroit Tigers, as they clawed even nearer to clinching a playoff spot.

Here’s a take a look at their full playoff image with simply 5 games left in the common season.

Minnesota Twins

The most essential crew for the Tigers to trace stays the Minnesota Twins.

With the Tigers’ win over the Rays on Tuesday afternoon and the Twins’ ensuing loss to the Marlins, the Tigers’ lead over the Twins has grown to 2 full games.

That means Detroit’s magic quantity is all the way down to 4. In different phrases, any mixture of Tigers wins and Twins losses that provides as much as 4 would formally put the Tigers in the playoffs.

I’m certain you already know this by now, however the Tigers don’t personal the tiebreaker over the Twins, which is why that magic quantity isn’t three. The Tigers misplaced seven of 13 head-to-head matchups with Minnesota.

The Twins have misplaced three games in a row and are 11-22 since mid-August. Their collection with the Marlins continues Wednesday night time in Minneapolis, and so they end with three in opposition to the Orioles.

Seattle Mariners

The different crew chasing the Tigers is Seattle, however these playoff hopes are on life help.

The Mariners misplaced to the Astros on Tuesday night time to fall 2.5 games behind the Tigers. And Seattle solely has 4 extra games remaining (Thursday is an off day).

Detroit received 5 of six head-to-head matchups, so even a tie wouldn’t be sufficient to get Seattle into the playoffs.

The Tigers would win a three-way tie with the Mariners and Royals, however would lose a three-way tie with the Mariners and Twins.

Kansas City Royals

Washington held Kansas City to zero runs via 9 innings on Tuesday night time, but it surely nonetheless wasn’t sufficient to win.

The Royals scored the recreation’s solely run in the prime of the tenth and earned a much-needed victory.

Detroit and Kansas City have an identical information at 83-74, which suggests the Royals at present personal the second wild card spot as a result of they received the head-to-head collection, 7-6.

The distinction between getting the second and third wild card spots is straightforward: The second wild card crew will play at Baltimore (most likely) in the first spherical of the playoffs, whereas the third will play in Houston.

Kansas City has a a lot more durable street forward, although. While the Tigers host the traditionally dangerous White Sox for 3 games to complete the season, the Royals have to move to Atlanta to face a Braves crew that’s scratching and clawing for a wild card spot of its personal.

Baltimore Orioles

I do should not less than point out the very, very slim risk that the Tigers might host a wild card collection at Comerica Park.

To accomplish that, they would wish to move each the Royals and the Orioles and end with the prime wild card spot. That’s extraordinarily unlikely after the Orioles beat the Yankees on Tuesday night time.

Baltimore is 4 games up on the Tigers with 5 to play, however the Tigers do have the head-to-head benefit.

So Detroit must make up 4 games in 5 days to convey playoff baseball to Comerica Park in the first spherical.

Here are the two situations that might give the Tigers the prime wild card spot:

The Tigers end 5-0, the Orioles end 1-4 or 0-5, and the Royals lose not less than as soon as.
The Tigers end 4-1, the Orioles end 0-5, and the Royals lose not less than twice.

Baltimore performs all 5 of its remaining games on the street — two in opposition to the Yankees and three in opposition to the Twins. It’s ironic that if the Tigers maintain enterprise the subsequent two days in opposition to Tampa Bay, they might find yourself really rooting for the Twins over the weekend.

If the Tigers transfer into the prime wild card spot, they’re assured to host the Orioles in the first spherical. The Orioles have already clinched a playoff spot, and so they personal the tiebreaker over the Royals.

So the solely approach for the Royals to complete forward of the Orioles is by going 5-0 whereas the Orioles end 0-5. In that situation, the Royals would get the fourth wild card spot.

Boston Red Sox

For the sake of being thorough, we’ll contact briefly on the Red Sox.

Boston has received 4 games in a row to remain alive in the wild card race, however nonetheless, it’s a 3.5-game hole between the Red Sox and the Tigers.

Since the Tigers received the season collection in opposition to the Red Sox, the solely approach Boston can move Detroit is by ending 4-0 whereas the Tigers go 0-5. That would put the Red Sox at 84-78 and the Tigers at 83-79.

There are additionally these unlikely tiebreaker conditions that might combine issues up.

If the Tigers, Royals, and Red Sox all end tied, the Red Sox would win the tiebreaker due to their 4-2 report in opposition to the Royals. The Tigers could be out.

If the Tigers, Twins, and Red Sox all end tied, the Twins would win the tiebreaker. The solely approach the Tigers might get in could be if all of them completed forward of the Royals, making the Twins the second wild card crew and the Tigers the third.

If the Tigers, Royals, Twins, and Red Sox all end tied, the Twins would win the tiebreaker. The Tigers could be out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Don’t low cost the alternative for the Rays to play spoiler. But you may positively low cost their playoff chances.

Tampa Bay got here into Detroit on a four-game profitable streak, and it has received current collection in opposition to the Red Sox and Orioles whereas splitting with the Twins and Guardians.

But as of Wednesday morning, the Rays are 5 games behind the Tigers and Royals with 5 games to play.

Even if the Rays win the subsequent two games in Detroit, they would wish the Tigers to get swept by the White Sox to actually have a probability to drive a tiebreaker.

The Rays and Red Sox end the season with a three-game collection at Fenway Park.

New York Yankees

OK, technically, the Tigers might additionally find yourself taking part in the Yankees in the wild card spherical of the playoffs.

The Orioles path the Yankees by 5 games in the AL East standings, however Baltimore clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker with its win Tuesday night time.

So if Baltimore wins its final 5 games and the Yankees lose all 5 (two in opposition to the Orioles and three in opposition to the Pirates), the Orioles would win the East and the Yankees could be assured the prime wild card spot.

What’s already determined

The Astros have clinched the AL West Division and are locked into the No. 3 seed in the American League. They’re 5 games forward of the Mariners with 4 games left, and too far behind the different division winners to catch up and earn a first-round bye (no matter who wins the East).

Cleveland is at present one recreation behind the Yankees in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AL, however both approach, the Guardians are assured a bye.

In the National League, we already know the Phillies have received the East and the Brewers have received the Central. The Dodgers and Padres are combating for the NL West crown, and the loser will earn a wild card spot.

Three groups are nonetheless battling for 2 wild card positions: The Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves. Right now, the Mets and Diamondbacks are tied at 87-70, whereas the Braves are a recreation again at 86-71.

Bottom line

The Tigers are in a extremely great place. But the job’s not fairly completed.

Here’s how I'd rank the doable remaining outcomes, so as of chance.

Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Baltimore.
Tigers get the third wild card spot and play in Houston.
Tigers miss the playoffs.
Tigers get the first wild card spot and host the Orioles.
Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Kansas City.
Tigers get the second wild card spot and play the Yankees in New York.

Wednesday’s recreation in opposition to the Rays is the hardest remaining check on the schedule. Zack Littell is Tampa Bay’s greatest pitcher, and he’s been glorious over the previous two months.

The Tigers will counter with Keider Montero, who’s been inconsistent throughout his rookie season.

If the Tigers can win certainly one of the last two games in opposition to the Rays, although, it could be an enormous step towards securing a playoff spot.

The White Sox are the worst crew in MLB historical past, and whereas they received’t simply lie down and not using a battle, the Tigers should really feel fairly good about their chances in these games.

We’ve mentioned it 100 occasions over the previous month, but it surely’s value repeating: I can’t imagine the Tigers are even on this dialog. It’s a testomony to this pitching workers, the younger bats, and A.J. Hinch that they discovered a option to rally after the commerce deadline.

Now we’ll see if they'll end.