An uncomplicated look at a field rating or a assessment of fantasy soccer classes would not all the time reveal the total story of a participant's efficiency. Dalton Del Don goals to pinpoint deceiving numbers that benefit a better examination.
Affirmative … The Figures Are Dishonest.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 4 landing catches are a lie
Harrison Jr. locations 59th in catches and thirty eighth in red-zone targets, but he is tied for the second-most landing catches within the league. He has fewer catches than Michael Wilson and has closely relied on touchdowns, with 35% of his fantasy scoring coming from TDs. The newcomer has erased any preliminary worries about his velocity, however his function has been unstable in an Arizona offense that has regressed this season. Harrison Jr. is certainly one of simply two receivers who've obtained go routes or fades on 30%+ of their targets.
Harrison Jr.’s 42.2% air yards share appears to be like interesting, nevertheless it comes with a 60% catchable target fee that ranks 74th within the league. He’s among the many league leaders in unrealized air yards whereas recording the second most contested catches. Among move catchers with a minimum of 25 targets, Harrison Jr. ranks thirty ninth in designed goal fee (5.9%). MHJ isn’t seeing any straightforward targets and hasn’t caught greater than 5 balls in a sport but.
Harrison Jr. has averaged 8.4 fantasy factors (0.5 PPR) when not going through the worst passing protection within the league (the Rams are permitting 9.0 YPA!), which might make him the WR46 on the yr. Furthermore, MHJ will in all probability be lined by Jaire Alexander (who returned to apply Wednesday) this week, and after that, he doesn’t face a protection that at the moment ranks exterior the highest 10 in WR fantasy scoring allowed until Week 13!
Kyler Murray is averaging simply 194.4 passing yards this season, and Arizona’s offense has been a disaster exterior of opening drives; Murray has amassed 10.0 YPA with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio (and his sole dashing rating) throughout makes an attempt 1-10 this season, however that drops to a 5.3 YPA with 1:2 TD:INT ratio after the scripted performs (makes an attempt 11+).
Harrison Jr. will make performs, however the early touchdowns (and a matchup versus the Rams) have camouflaged a regarding function in a disappointing offense. Trey McBride has but to excel this yr (extra on him later), and Wilson is rising. Harrison Jr. will settle in as a top-20 fantasy extensive receiver, however his expectations must be lowered (he’s nearer to Brian Thomas Jr. than a wholesome Malik Nabers).
Garrett Wilson’s substantial efficiency final week was a lie
Wilson simply had his best sport of the season final week, amassing 13 catches for 101 yards and a rating. But it took 23 targets, which is the fifth most for the reason that stat began being tracked in 1992. Wilson’s route chart was absolutely horrifying Sunday, and the Jets have been going through a Vikings protection that entered permitting by far the very best move fee and essentially the most passing yards within the league. It was Wilson’s first weekly end inside the highest 10 WRs since his rookie season.
New York has scored the same number of points over five games as they did final season, when Zach Wilson had a better YPA than Aaron Rodgers at the moment has. Garrett Wilson’s common distance of goal (8.1 yards) ranks forty third within the league, and 70% of his targets have come behind the road of scrimmage or inside 9 yards. He leads in targets this season with 56 however simply 22 of them have been catchable. His yards per goal (5.2) is the sixth worst in the league.
While it’s unclear how a head teaching change fixes the offense, a minimum of Nate Hackett was stripped of his play-calling duties. The chemistry between Rodgers and Wilson is also sure to improve, however Wilson may be competing for targets with Davante Adams quickly.
Wilson faces a stingy Buffalo move protection this week adopted by shadow matchups with Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. Like Harrison Jr., Wilson has a disappointing function on an underperforming offense, so he’s unlikely to be price his lofty ADP regardless of final week’s misleading efficiency.
D’Andre Swift’s two touchdowns are a lie
The alternative to purchase low in a commerce has closed after top-three RB finishes every of the final two weeks, however Swift's season-long fantasy manufacturing stays deceptive as a result of a sluggish begin and unlucky TD manufacturing. Swift was introduced down on the one-yard line (and didn’t later rating on that drive) three separate occasions final week when he additionally had a landing run canceled by an unlawful shift penalty. Swift had seven carries inside the ten final week but noticed Roschon Johnson steal two quick scores.
Swift’s utilization has remained the same over the last two weeks, however his manufacturing has surged even with the unfortunate scoring. A extremely favorable schedule has aided, however Swift has appeared spectacular and extra assured in a brand new Chicago offense. Most considerably, Caleb Williams has demonstrated actual progress.
Swift is rotating goal-line opportunities with Johnson, however Khalil Herbert has been placed on maintain. Swift is the RB13 in expected fantasy points, simply forward of Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Moreover, the Bears have the second-easiest projected RB schedule over the subsequent 5 video games.
Swift was additionally stopped at the one the second most times in the league (six) final yr, however his luck ought to enhance on the objective line. More touchdowns are on the best way, so Swift qualifies as a buy-high in fantasy trades.
Trey McBride’s TE10 rank is a lie
McBride was knocked out of 1 sport and missed one other as a result of a concussion. He’s seen a 29%+ goal share in three of 4 video games this season and has the easiest remaining tight end schedule. He’s been charted as open about 3 times as a lot as Sam LaPorta while running a similar number of routes. McBride dropped a possible landing ultimately zone final week, and he leads all tight ends in first-read goal fee (25.9%).
McBride has a better separation rate and the next designed goal fee (13.3% vs. 5.9%) than Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s running a ton of go and fade routes. McBride will profit from Harrison’s restricted route function, and he led all tight ends in first downs per route run final season as a sophomore.
Travis Kelce sans Rashee Rice and the rising Brock Bowers have arguments, however McBride is true there with them as fantasy’s high tight finish transferring ahead.
