NEW YORK — It’s only one baseball sport. But everyone knows it’s greater than that. It is the sport that can outline the legacy of the 2024 Phillies. And it’s roaring proper at them, Wednesday at Citi Field.
They path the Mets, two video games to 1, in a National League Division Series the place three losses would puncture a summer season stuffed with desires. So the actuality couldn’t be extra clear.
The Phillies now should beat the Mets on Wednesday simply to earn the proper to maintain inhaling and respiration out after which present up at house Friday to strive to do this once more.
But on Wednesday, they must do it in a spot the place 44,000 Mets followers will take into account it the spotlight of their 12 months to delight in the Phillies’ distress. And they must beat a crew that's on a kind of feel-the-magic rolls that was the specialty of the Phillies’ home.
The Phillies’ season isn’t over, however it's undoubtedly on the brink. We comprehend it. The Mets odor it. The been-there, seen-this residents of Philadelphia are already bracing for it.
And additionally, if it means something, that crew on the brink occurs to be one hundred pc conscious of it. The Phillies introduced 26 gamers with them to Flushing this week. And all 26 of them can do that math.
“Everyone knows what’s at stake,” stated one in every of this clubhouse’s most stand-up voices, reliever Matt Strahm, after his crew had absorbed a 7-2 thumping in Game 3. “Everyone does. From the day we left spring training, it was World Series or bust. So, I mean, we all know what’s at stake.”
Matt Strahm waits as supervisor Rob Thomson involves take away him from Game 1. (Hunter Martin / Getty Images)
But do they even need to know what their odds appear like? The guess right here isn't any. Or, come to consider it, extra like yikes, no. But it’s our job to fill you in on stuff like that. So right here we go. It additionally applies to the Dodgers at the second. But let’s not get sidetracked.
• In the three earlier postseasons, eight groups discovered themselves on this place the place the Phillies at present stand. They’d cut up the first two video games of the best-of-five LDS at house, then misplaced Game 3 on the street. Six of these eight went on to lose that collection. Five of these six received eradicated the subsequent day.
• But if we start this evaluation with 2022, the first 12 months of the Wild Card Series, the math will get even messier. In 2022 and ’23, 4 groups had a bye to keep away from the Wild Card Series, identical to the Phillies, and cut up Games 1 and a pair of at house. All 4 of these groups misplaced Game 3 on the street, as the Phillies did. The just one that survived and superior was the 2022 Yankees, who gained Game 4 on the street and Game 5 at house.
• And in fact, the Phillies couldn’t probably be extra acquainted with that pattern — since they have been on the different finish of it two years in a row. They cut up the first two video games on the street in Atlanta in each 2022 and ’23. Then they wished the Braves sayonara by sweeping Games 3 and 4 in Philadelphia. Twice.
• But we should always point out that the Mets franchise is aware of how this works, too. Before this 12 months, the Mets had cut up Games 1 and a pair of of a best-of-five collection on the street 4 occasions in their historical past. They are undefeated in these collection.
So for those who’re a crew on the brink, you don’t need to hear that math. But sitting at his locker Tuesday night time was one man who didn’t care about any of those terrifying historical past classes. That man was Kyle Schwarber. And he’s fairly certain he performed on a crew the place the mathematical eventualities appeared grimmer than this.
That crew was the soon-to-be legendary, curse-busting 2016 Cubs. They fell behind Cleveland, three video games to 1, in the World Series that 12 months. You know what occurred subsequent, proper?
They gained Game 5 in Chicago, then headed again to Cleveland for Games 6 and seven … and gained them each. So if anybody in that Phillies clubhouse Tuesday night time was searching for tales of comeback inspiration, Schwarber was there to assist.
“What I remember,” he stated, “was straight up confidence. We were confident in who was taking the mound because, at that time, we had Jon Lester taking the mound. Here, we’ve got Ranger Suárez taking the mound. Big-game pitcher.
“OK, then we had Game 6. And we had Jake Arrieta taking the mound. So (back to the Phillies’ plight), if we can find a way to get back home, we can get the ball to Zack Wheeler.
“So that’s what we’ve got to look at. You’re confident in your guy going out on the mound. And you’re confident with the group in here on the offensive side of the ball, that we’re going to do what we need to do to put ourselves in position to win a baseball game.”
There now. See how easy that is? Unless, in fact, your “big-game pitcher” (Suárez) is coming off a nightmarish second half, wherein he allowed opposing hitters to pile up an .865 OPS towards him. That was the fourth-worst by any NL starter who made at least eight begins after the break.
Then there’s the group on “the offensive side of the ball.” That group is hitting .204 on this collection … and for all the Philadelphians who're on the market screaming, it appears worse, there’s a cause for that.
Phillies not named Bryce Harper or Nick Castellanos are batting .158 (12-for-76) in these three video games. And the beginning 5-6-7-8-9 hitters Tuesday have now mixed to go 3-for-32 (.094) on this collection. So with only a few exceptions, if the high of the order hasn’t gotten one thing finished, the remainder of the roster has largely simply baked doughnuts all week.
Bryce Harper hits an RBI single in the eighth inning of Game 3, but it surely was too little, too late for the Phillies. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
Then there’s the bullpen, which was presupposed to be one in every of the Phillies’ largest benefits on this collection. Except then baseball occurred. And the Phillies’ ’pen has allowed 17 hits and 13 runs (12 earned) in 9 innings, with two blown saves, no transformed saves and eight inherited runners who've been allowed to attain.
So there you've gotten it. That’s the method to get your self buried in a two-games-to-one demise valley. The query now could be how — or whether or not — the Phillies nonetheless have a method to get themselves out of that gap.
When the clubhouse doorways opened Tuesday night time, Castellanos was ready at his locker. He had some ideas. And he wished everybody in the room to listen to them.
Asked to explain the sort of strain his crew was feeling, Castellanos was so prepared for that query, he confirmed off his solely not often glimpsed Philosopher Nick aspect.
“As a group, this is the closest to death we’re ever going to get,” he stated. “So in a way, we should feel the most alive. We’re only promised tomorrow. And this is what we’ve been working for since spring training, to have this opportunity. And it’s just one more time to show out and leave everything on the field, and however the dice is going to land, it’s going to land.”
You may need thought it will be arduous to high that discuss of tumbling cube and near-death experiences. But Philosopher Nick was simply getting rolling.
Asked how his crew may “flush this one,” Castellanos had little interest in reaching for the outdated flusher.
“Instead of just flushing it and forgetting it,” he stated, “I think right now, it’s really important to embrace what the situation is. (If) we lose, we’re going home. Baseball is over for us. (So) it’s a great opportunity, because if we’re able to come in and scrape out a win here, I know that they (the Mets) do not want to go back to Philly for a Game 5.”
But if the Mets are afraid of something proper now, you’d want a CT Scan to detect it, as a result of it hasn’t proven up on the discipline. Why, in truth, would they even be scared to face Wheeler — regardless of the undeniable fact that the final time they noticed him, in Game 1, they received one hit and swung and missed 30 occasions?
Want to listen to an unimaginable tidbit? Counting Tuesday’s win in an Aaron Nola begin, the Mets at the moment are 14-3 over the final three seasons in video games wherein the Phillies have began Wheeler or Nola. So there’s that.
But there’s additionally this: The Mets at the moment are 2-0 in the Wheeler/Nola begins on this NLDS and 0-1 when anybody else begins. So how upside-down is that? This is the eighth collection the Phillies have performed over the final three postseasons — and solely as soon as in the earlier seven (in the 2022 World Series loss to Houston) had any crew gained video games began by each of the Phillies’ co-aces.
“It’s baseball,” Nola stated Tuesday night time, after the remainder of the media crowd had filtered away from his locker. “It happens. They’ve played good baseball against us these three games, and they’ve pitched us really well.
“Zack pitched a heck of a game the other night. One of the best games I’ve ever seen pitched. But it’s baseball. So I always say you never really know, and especially when the postseason comes. Anything can happen at any time of the game.”
Pete Alonso’s Mets have all of the momentum — for now. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
So to observe these groups now, it’s wonderful how irrelevant it feels that the Phillies dominated the NL East virtually from begin to end … whereas the Mets didn’t even scramble into this event till the day after the beforehand scheduled finish of the common season.
Now it’s the Mets who've That Look. And the Phillies are enjoying like a crew that flipped the cruise-control swap on the World Series Express three months in the past — and forgot to show it off.
So now all of it comes down to 1 extra baseball sport in Queens. But it isn’t merely a postseason collection that's driving on it. What’s at stake for this group of Phillies? It’s easy, actually:
How do they need to be remembered? As an excellent crew? Or as a crew that spent elements of the final three seasons merely flashing greatness, however then by no means completed the journey?
They’ve lived the euphoria of October and felt the heartbreak of October. Now another baseball sport lies forward of them. If you’re questioning how conscious they're of the that means of that sport, their clubhouse Tuesday night time was stuffed with voices that promised they get it. But the solely path to rewriting this script entails embracing the 27 outs forward.
“I mean, the writing’s on the wall,” Schwarber stated. “Elimination game. Gotta find a way to win. There’s no ifs, ands or buts about it, right? We’ve just got to play baseball the way we know we can — and stay away from that big red (panic) button.”
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(Top photograph of Nick Castellanos after Jesse Winker’s homer in Game 3: Elsa / Getty Images)
