Mike Clay, ESPN Senior Writer
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 5, which kicked off Thursday with the Buccaneers on the Falcons.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances and, in fact, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for season-long leagues and DFS. This information ought to provide help to with all kinds of decision-making, together with sit/begin selections, last-minute waiver provides and lineup selections.
The recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively customary scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Ok, 1 D/ST), though I'll typically point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who've been projected for a minimum of 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that components in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor's be aware: Projections and rankings will align nearly completely, however typically when a projection is shut, a participant is likely to be ranked barely larger or decrease due to different components, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates through the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings can be up to date on the positioning and projections will all the time be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
Jump to:
NYJ-MIN | CAR-CHI | BAL-CIN | MIA-NE | CLE-WAS | IND-JAX
BUF-HOU | LV-DEN | ARI-SF | GB-LAR | NYG-SEA | DAL-PIT | NO-KC
Projected Score: Vikings 22, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Breece Hall, Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson
Sam Darnold has reeled off three consecutive top-10 fantasy weeks and paces the NFL with 11 passing TDs. Incredibly, Darnold has pulled this off regardless of rating twentieth within the league in passing makes an attempt. Despite his early success, Darnold is not but a viable QB1 possibility. The 27-year-old has registered solely 50 dashing yards and has a brutal Week 5 matchup in opposition to a Jets protection that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards and fantasy factors to QBs. Granted, the schedule has been gentle, however New York has but to permit a single QB to clear 11.5 fantasy factors (none reached 23.0 factors in opposition to them final season).
Over/Under: 40.6 (eleventh highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 60% (ninth highest)
Projected Score: Bears 19, Panthers 18
Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Chuba Hubbard, Diontae Johnson, DJ Moore
A Week 3 harm to Adam Thielen opened the door for a Week 4 Xavier Legette breakout and the rookie delivered. The first-round decide performed on 60 snaps (most amongst Carolina receivers) and turned a career-high 10 targets into 66 yards and a rating whereas additionally including 10 yards on a pair of carries. Legette had performed on solely 54% of snaps throughout Weeks 1-3, so the increase in utilization, coupled with Andy Dalton offering competent QB play, has him on the fantasy radar. This is a troublesome matchup (just one WR has reached 13.0 fantasy factors in opposition to Chicago this season), however Legette could be very a lot a flex possibility.
Over/Under: 36.9 (twelfth highest)
Win Probability: Bears 55% (twelfth highest)
Projected Score: Ravens 28, Bengals 24
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins
Zack Moss (33 runs and 11 targets on 127 snaps) held an enormous edge in utilization over Chase Brown (14, 6, 41) throughout Weeks 1-3, however issues modified in Week 4. Moss nonetheless held a 36-26 edge in snaps, however each backs had 15 carries and the targets have been almost whilst properly (Moss 4, Brown 3). Brown is a succesful pass-catcher and his 6.3 yards per carry tops all backs with 25-plus carries this season (Moss sits at 3.9). With a real committee forming, Moss is not more than a fringe RB2, whereas Brown is a deep-league flex possibility.
Over/Under: 51.4 (Highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 63% (eighth highest)
Projected Score: Dolphins 17, Patriots 15
Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill
Jaylen Waddle's season acquired off to begin with 109 yards on 5 targets in Week 1, however the wheels have fallen off with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Waddle has a complete of simply 103 yards on 15 targets in his previous three video games, having did not clear six targets or 41 yards in any of the outings. Waddle, who has but to search out the tip zone this season, sits forty seventh in WR fantasy factors. As lengthy as Tagovailoa is out, Waddle can be greatest left on benches.
Over/Under: 32.4 (thirteenth highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 56% (eleventh highest)
Projected Score: Commanders 27, Browns 20
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Deshaun Watson has a plus matchup this week, as Washington has surrendered probably the most passing TDs (10) and the second-most QB fantasy factors this season. Three QBs have reached 18-plus fantasy factors in opposition to the Commanders, although Kyler Murray was held to 10.0 in Week 4. Despite the nice matchup, Watson is hard to justify as a streamer contemplating he is but to ship any top-10 fantasy outings this season. He leads the league in dropbacks and has produced 20-plus dashing yards in all 4 video games, however he is but to achieve 200 passing yards in any sport and his 4.9 YPA is certifiably atrocious. Only contemplate him in 16-team leagues.
Over/Under: 47 (fifth highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 76% (2nd highest)
Projected Score: Colts 26, Jaguars 18
Lineup locks: Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Josh Downs has loved an enormous 31% goal share in his two video games since coming back from harm. The massive utilization did not result in a lot in his season debut (22 yards on 5 targets), however he went off for 82 yards and a rating on 9 targets final week. Downs was averaging 7.0 targets per sport and sat thirtieth in WR fantasy factors previous to struggling an harm in Week 9 least season, so it would not be surprising to see him produce WR3/flex numbers shifting ahead. Indy's slot man is in a great spot this week in opposition to a Jaguars protection that sits high 5 in receptions, yards and fantasy factors allowed to receivers.
Over/Under: 44.4 (eighth highest)
Win Probability: Colts 77% (Highest)
Projected Score: Bills 26, Texans 22
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Joe Mixon, James Cook, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid
One week after being benched for a piece of the sport, Keon Coleman rebounded by pacing Buffalo's ability place gamers in each snaps (42) and air yards (77). Coleman was restricted to 51 yards on 4 targets in opposition to Baltimore and has but to clear these marks in any single sport this season, however the increase in taking part in time is the proof we have to hold the rookie on rosters. Coleman is not but a protected flex possibility, however that day will come this season if he stays a featured participant in Buffalo offense.
Over/Under: 47.6 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 64% (seventh highest)
Projected Score: Broncos 19, Raiders 12
Lineup locks: Brock Bowers
Denver has remained dedicated to Javonte Williams as its lead again and that appeared to lastly pay some dividends on Sunday. Williams ran for 77 yards on 16 carries after totaling simply 52 yards on 24 carries throughout Weeks 1-3. Despite the higher displaying, Williams has but to search out the tip zone or produce greater than 11.5 fantasy factors in any single sport this season. He has matchup this week in opposition to a Raiders protection that has allowed a minimum of 15.5 fantasy factors to the opposing lead again in all 4 video games. Backs are averaging a league-high 5.4 yards per carry in opposition to Las Vegas. With solely Jaleel McLaughlin as competitors for work this week, Williams is on the RB2 radar.
Over/Under: 31.4 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 73% (third highest)
Projected Score: 49ers 27, Cardinals 21
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Jordan Mason, James Conner, Deebo Samuel Sr., Marvin Harrison Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, Trey McBride, George Kittle
Although he did handle 88 yards within the sport, Jauan Jennings fell again to earth final week, taking part in on 57% of 49ers snaps in opposition to the Patriots. Jennings went off for 175 yards and three touchdowns with Samuel and Kittle sidelined in Week 3, however was held to 6 targets with each of them again in Week 4. Jennings has now seen six or fewer targets in 36 of 39 video games tracing again to the 2022 season opener. He's a dangerous flex possibility in opposition to Arizona this week.
Over/Under: 48.4 (third highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 72% (4th highest)
Projected Score: Packers 27, Rams 22
Lineup locks: Jordan Love, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed
With Christian Watson set to overlook time, three Packers — Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft — transfer from bench choices to potential fantasy starters.
Doubs has performed on 81% of offensive snaps this season, and whereas he is but to search out the tip zone or put up any double-digit fantasy outings, his 17% goal share aligns with the place he was throughout his eight-TD 2023 marketing campaign. Wicks exploded for 13 targets and 201 air yards final week, which allowed him 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns (he has three on the season). Kraft additionally discovered the tip zone final week, having produced 53 yards on eight targets whereas taking part in on 85% of snaps.
Consider Doubs and Wicks to be WR3/flex choices in opposition to a struggling Rams go protection, whereas Kraft could be thought of a TE1 in opposition to a Rams protection that has allowed a league-high 11.5 YPT and 94% catch charge to tight ends.
Over/Under: 48.7 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Packers 65% (sixth highest)
Projected Score: Seahawks 24, Giants 19
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Malik Nabers, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Wan'Dale Robinson at present sits fourth in targets (38) and fifth in receptions (26) amongst extensive receivers. Despite the hefty 28% goal share, the 2022 second-round decide is just thirty seventh in receiving yards (194) and has one landing. Robinson, who sits twenty second in WR fantasy factors, has solely been used within the quick space (4.4 aDOT) and hardly ever close to the objective line (zero finish zone targets). Robinson is on tempo for 110 receptions, which might't be discounted in PPR, although he does have a troublesome Week 5 matchup in opposition to a Seattle protection that has allowed the fifth-fewest WR yards. Robinson is greatest valued as a WR3/flex.
Over/Under: 43.5 (tenth highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 69% (fifth highest)
Projected Score: Steelers 24, Cowboys 22
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Najee Harris, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson
Rico Dowdle out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott 24-9 in Week 4 and now holds a 112-79 edge for the season. The lead again position allowed Dowdle his first landing of the season final Thursday, however he is but to clear 12 touches, 61 yards or 13.1 fantasy factors in any sport this season. Dowdle stays an uninspiring flex possibility — and that is particularly the case this week in opposition to a Steelers protection that has surrendered the second-fewest RB fantasy factors (and just one RB landing).
Over/Under: 46.3 (sixth highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 57% (tenth highest)
Projected Score: Chiefs 22, Saints 22
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes has fallen out of “lineup lock” territory. The celebrity quarterback has now gone 9 straight regular-season video games and not using a top-12 fantasy outing. His final end higher than eighth was Week 7 of final season. Mahomes sits fifth in passing TDs (6) this season, however he is outdoors the highest 10 on the place in passing makes an attempt, passing yards, carries and dashing yards. Mahomes' final dashing rating was through the 2022 season. Especially with Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice sidelined, Mahomes is not more than a midrange QB2.
Kareem Hunt made his return to the Chiefs final week and instantly paced the backfield in snaps (25), carries (14) and targets (3). Samaje Perine (24 snaps) and Carson Steele (11) additionally noticed the sphere, however that is probably not the case shifting ahead if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated from the NFI listing. Hunt is the most secure play from this room Monday night time, however it's very attainable “CEH” takes over as lead again in brief order. At the very least, a two-to-three man committee is feasible.
With Rice sidelined, the Chiefs' WR room is as follows: Xavier Worthy (43 snaps in Week 4), Justin Watson (40), JuJu Smith-Schuster (30), Skyy Moore (13) and Mecole Hardman (8). At least for the second, Worthy is the one participant on the fantasy radar. The first-round rookie has but to clear 4 targets in any sport, however he discovered the tip zone in each Weeks 1 and 4, and his position ought to improve with Rice and his huge goal share now not within the image. Worthy is a WR3/flex possibility in opposition to a New Orleans protection that has allowed just one TD, however the seventh-most catches and yards to extensive receivers.
Over/Under: 44.1 (ninth highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 50% (14th highest)
