The Mets-Braves doubleheader dilemma: Unraveling the path, predicting the pitchers, and deciphering the playoff implications | Sports

Consider the chaos unleashed.

On Monday, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will play a doubleheader to find out not simply their very own playoff fates however the destiny of the Arizona Diamondbacks as effectively. Rain from Hurricane Helene washed out two contests between Atlanta and New York final week in what was speculated to have been a monumental, three-game showdown. Instead, the latter two video games have been banged, leaving the complete National League wild-card image up in the air.

A situation existed that may’ve rendered such make-up video games statistically moot, doubtless resulting in their cancellation. Instead, an Atlanta loss mixed with victories by New York and Arizona on the last scheduled day of video games on Sunday left all three groups successfully tied in the standings. And so, the most wonky of situations — a season-deciding twin invoice sandwiched between Game 162 on Sunday and Game 1 of the wild-card spherical on Tuesday — has develop into actuality.

Let’s handicap the insanity and preview what’s positive to be an unforgettable day of baseball.

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How did we get right here?

Mother Nature is the easy reply. Rain in Georgia final week left Truist Park unplayable. The league might’ve pressured the Braves and Mets to play at a impartial website however opted not to take action. Surely the league hoped the outcomes over the last weekend of video games would make taking part in the doubleheader Monday pointless. Had the Diamondbacks not stormed again for 11 runs on Sunday after happening early in opposition to the Padres, MLB would’ve gotten its want. Arizona would’ve been eradicated with a loss, propelling New York and Atlanta into the October event.

A Braves win Sunday would have activated maybe the most unsavory situation, wherein Atlanta would’ve clinched a wild-card spot however nonetheless would’ve needed to play New York twice on Monday as a result of the Mets would’ve wanted to win each to clinch and remove the D-backs.

Thankfully, that’s not the way it went down. We’re left with ample mayhem nonetheless.

What situations are at play?

There are three attainable outcomes: The Mets might sweep, the Braves might sweep, or the two golf equipment might break up the doubleheader.

If a group wins each video games Monday, mentioned membership is in the playoff subject alongside Arizona, with the loser of the doubleheader headed residence for the winter. A break up between New York and Atlanta would propel each groups into the playoffs and ship the Diamondbacks packing, regardless that all three groups would have equivalent data. That’s as a result of each the Mets and the Braves maintain a tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks.

If the Mets and Braves break up the doubleheader, Atlanta can be the No. 5 seed and New York the No. 6 seed, based mostly on Atlanta’s successful the season collection between the two. The Braves would then head to San Diego to face the Padres, whereas the Mets would return to Milwaukee to play the Brewers.

If a group goes 2-0 on Monday, that membership, be it New York or Atlanta, would head to San Diego as the No. 5 seed, whereas Arizona would play Milwaukee as the No. 6 seed in a rematch of final yr’s wild-card spherical.

In different phrases:

• Atlanta will get in with a win. The Braves could be solely the No. 5 seed.

• New York will get in with a win. If the Mets win one Monday, they're the No. 6 seed. If they win each, they're the No. 5 seed.

• Arizona will get in if both Atlanta or New York sweeps the doubleheader. The D-backs could be solely the No. 6 seed.

Doesn’t that create a weird set of incentives?

Yes. The winner of Game 1 on Monday clinches a playoff spot with that victory, making Game 2 irrelevant for that group. Conversely, whichever group loses Game 1 faces a win-or-go-home state of affairs in Game 2.

That means it might behoove the winner of Game 1 to (1) lose Game 2 as rapidly as attainable and (2) accomplish that whereas counting on the least necessary group of gamers obtainable. And that’s comprehensible, given the outrageous journey concerned in all of this and the zero days off between this doubleheader and the begin of the playoffs on Tuesday.

For occasion, if the Mets win Game 1, it might be pointless for them to deploy flame-throwing nearer Edwin Díaz in Game 2. Doing so would go away him extra taxed for a Tuesday playoff recreation. And much like what can occur on a getaway day throughout the common season, there’s an opportunity that the Game 1 winner’s hitters will swing early and usually to make Game 2 skedaddle alongside.

Who goes to pitch?

The Braves have repeatedly mentioned that doubtless NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale will begin solely an elimination recreation. As such, Atlanta plans to roll out Spencer Schwellenbach in the opener and use Sale in Game 2 provided that they lose Game 1. Sure, the Braves would like to knock out their division rivals — and vice versa — however spite is much less motivating or necessary than, , attending to throw Chris Sale in Game 1 of a playoff collection.

The Mets are more likely to make the most of an identical technique, with backend starter Tylor Megill more likely to begin Game 1 and frontline hurler Luis Severino ready in the wings for Game 2 if crucial. That makes a Sale-Severino showdown terribly unlikely.

Unfortunately, all of those components create an infinite drawback for the Diamondbacks, who will spend Monday sitting in entrance of the TV, ready and hoping.

For the remainder of us, it means a bonus day of high-stakes baseball, one that includes a few of the most weird attainable outcomes in latest reminiscence.