From James Spann and the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog:
Most of the affect from Hurricane Helene will come over the japanese facet of Alabama over the subsequent 24 hours. Rain will enhance over East Alabama this afternoon and tonight, turning into heavy at instances. The western half of the state will probably be largely dry with just some spotty showers. Winds will enhance throughout East Alabama tonight, gusts to 40/45 mph are potential. The larger wind velocities will probably be to the east over Georgia.
Rain will finish very early tomorrow morning over East Alabama, and most of Alabama will probably be dry tomorrow. The exception is the Tennessee Valley, the place rain is feasible by means of tomorrow night time thanks to the remnant circulation of Helene as it's absorbed by an higher low.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The climate seems to be usually dry over the weekend with highs within the 77-81 diploma vary for many communities. Any showers will probably be remoted, and close to the Tennessee border.
And, subsequent week seems to be dry with highs within the low 80s on most days.
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HELENE: This morning Hurricane Helene, with winds of 90 mph, is about 350 miles southwest of Tampa. It is transferring to the north/northeast at 90 mph.
Helene stays in an atmospheric and oceanic atmosphere over the japanese Gulf of Mexico that could be very conducive for strengthening, with the system forecast to traverse the Loop Current whereas it stays in a moist and low-shear atmosphere. The principal restraining issue on intensification is the present concentric eyewall standing. All of the depth steering continues to forecast strengthening till landfall. Based on this, the brand new depth forecast requires Helen to grow to be a serious hurricane in about 12 hours, and extra intensification is predicted within the ensuing 6 hour interval or so earlier than landfall.
Helene is forecast to be a big main hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a consequence, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will prolong nicely away from the middle and out of doors the forecast cone, significantly on the east facet. In addition, the quick ahead velocity when Helene strikes inland will lead to a far inland penetration of robust winds over elements of the southeastern United States, together with robust gusts over larger terrain of the southern Appalachians. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF fashions recommend the likelihood that the inside wind core might persist till the middle reaches northern Georgia. A better-than-normal gust issue is indicated within the official forecast whereas Helene is inland.
Key messages
*Landfall is forecast this night east of Apalachicola; Helene will probably be a serious hurricane with winds of 115-130 mph (class three or 4). The forecast observe was nudged eastward on the most recent replace from NHC.
*A Hurricane Warning is in impact from Anclote River to Mexico Beach.
*The principal affect by way of wind, storm surge, and flooding alongside the Florida Coast will probably be from Mexico Beach all the best way down to Cedar Key and Tampa Bay (the Florida “Big Bend”). The Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) stays on the favorable, west facet of the circulation with an offshore circulate. It will probably be windy and moist in Panama City Beach immediately and tonight, however no storm surge points there as the middle is available in nicely to the east. There will probably be little to no rain alongside the Alabama Gulf Coast.
*The mixture of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will trigger usually dry areas close to the coast to be flooded by rising waters transferring inland from the shoreline. The water may attain the next heights above floor someplace within the indicated areas if the height surge happens on the time of excessive tide
- Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL15-20 ft
- Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL10-15 ft
- Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL10-15 ft
- Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL8-12 ft
- Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL6-10 ft
- Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL5-8 ft
- Tampa Bay5-8 ft
- Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL4-7 ft
- East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL3-5 ft
- Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL3-5 ft
- Charlotte Harbor3-5 ft
*While the very best winds related to Helene will probably be east of Alabama throughout Georgia (the place widespread energy outages are doubtless), there's a tropical storm warning in impact for excessive East and Southeast Alabama, the place winds may gust to 40/45 mph tonight. A hurricane warning is in impact for Houston and Henry counties in Southeast Alabama; winds there may gust to 70/75 mph briefly in just a few spots.
We ought to notice it will likely be windy over the northern half of the state tomorrow (though the day will probably be largely dry) with gusts to 30/35 mph potential in the course of the day.
*Most of the rain in affiliation with Helene will fall over East Alabama immediately and tonight; a flash flood watch is in impact for roughly the japanese half of the state by means of early tomorrow morning. Rain quantities of 2-3 inches are potential there. The western facet of the state will see just a few spotty showers.
*There isn't any twister threat for Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will probably be nicely to the east throughout elements of northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
