Team defenses are already a difficult place to foretell from one season to the subsequent. It’s not like gauging the worth of a single participant. There are 11 transferring items on each protection. Those items change. Coordinators change. Schemes change.
Surprises on the place are nothing new. But in 2024 the surprise-meter has launched into overdrive – largely as a result of the primary three weeks of the season have simply been cuckoo.
The NFL’s hottest workforce (and the top-scoring fantasy protection three weeks in) is the Minnesota Vikings – the identical Vikings workforce that completed the 2023 marketing campaign twenty fourth in opposition to the move and was 16th in fantasy points. The affect that coordinator Brian Flores has had on the Vikings protection has been nothing quick of exceptional, particularly if you take note of that the workforce misplaced its greatest linebacker and prime edge-rusher in free company.
The massive names defensively – the groups drafted early? The San Francisco 49ers are sixteenth in fantasy factors on the place in fantasy factors after three weeks. The Dallas Cowboys are one spot behind them. The Baltimore Ravens are nineteenth.
Ay least the Washington Commanders are useless final. Something is smart. Want to know why I've lengthy advocated streaming workforce defenses based mostly on matchups?
This. This is why. It’s nonetheless early, and a few of these higher-end defenses could properly rebound.
But workforce defenses are dart-throws. Just attempting to gauge their worth for per week is tough sufficient.
Doing it for a whole season is a idiot’s errand as typically as not.
Gives you a ton of confidence about the remainder of this column, huh?
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THE NO-DOUBTERS
San Francisco 49ers (vs. New England Patriots)
Wait, what? Did this author not simply bemoan the truth that the 49ers have underperformed this season relative to expectations? There’s no denying they've – together with a lackluster efficiency final week in what seemed to be a tasty matchup with an injury-ravaged Los Angeles Rams workforce. But at 1-2, the 49ers are up in opposition to it after the Seahawks began the season 2-0, and after displaying some indicators of life in a Week 1 win over the Cincinnati Bengals the New England Patriots offense has regarded about like we anticipated this 12 months – which is to say horrible.
Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)
At this level, there’s no denying it – the Vikings have earned this spot. Despite enjoying a pair of 2023 playoff groups within the 49ers and Texans, the Vikings are second within the league in scoring protection, they rank third in takeaways and have amassed extra sacks (16) than any workforce within the National Football League. This week is admittedly one other stiff take a look at – the Packers are giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy factors to defenses in spite of beginning backup quarterback Malik Willis twice. But if it’s not broke, don’t repair it – the Vikings are a weekly begin till they offer us a cause to not.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Indianapolis Colts)
The Steelers are using excessive at 3-0 with a two-game lead within the AFC North, however whereas Justin Fields and the Pittsburgh offense have performed a component in that scorching begin, the engine driving the Steelers is the workforce’s protection, which ranks first within the NFL in each whole protection and scoring protection and sits tied for fourth in takeaways. This week edge-rusher T.J. Watt and the Steelers tackle a Colts workforce with a younger quarterback in Anthony Richardson who has been a turnover machine within the early-going this 12 months – solely the Tennessee Titans have given the ball away extra three video games in.
Chicago Bears (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Three video games into the 2024 marketing campaign, the Bears are fantasy’s second-ranked protection. That is admittedly buoyed by an enormous Week 1 the place Chicago scored on each protection and particular groups, however the reality stays it has been the Bears protection that has been holding the workforce in video games thus far this 12 months. The Los Angeles Rams stunned final week at residence in opposition to the 49ers, however that is nonetheless a workforce that's quick its top-two extensive receivers and three starters on the offensive line. Sean McVay can solely scheme round these accidents for thus lengthy.
New York Jets (vs. Denver Broncos)
Cherry-picking stats can get fantasy managers in bother, however for those who take out New York’s season-opening loss to the 49ers, the Jets rank third in fantasy factors amongst defenses over the previous two weeks. Edge-rusher Will McDonald IV has gone utterly bananas the final two video games, and the Jets sit seventh within the league in each whole protection and scoring protection and fifth in opposition to the move. Denver quarterback Bo Nix had the perfect begin of his younger profession final week in opposition to Tampa Bay, however he’s nonetheless a rookie whose subsequent landing move shall be his first.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Los Angeles Chargers)
At first look, the Chiefs seem a superb however not nice fantasy protection – twelfth in factors for the season. The mixed file of their opponents three weeks in is a dismal 2-7. But all three of these opponents (Baltimore, Cincinnati and Atlanta) have been broadly considered as playoff contenders coming into the season, and Steve Spagnuolo’s protection has had as a lot to do with the Chiefs’ 3-0 begin as Patrick Mahomes. With Justin Herbert wanting unlikely to play Sunday with a high-ankle sprain, the Chiefs get their greatest fantasy matchup of the season in opposition to the Taylor Heinicke-led Chargers. Kansas City will take benefit of it.
Dallas Cowboys (at New York Giants)
To be clear, the Cowboys haven't performed properly defensively this season – Dallas has allowed 72 factors the previous two video games (each losses) and the Cowboys are surrendering extra yards per recreation on the bottom than any workforce within the NFL. However, if ever there was per week for Dallas to get it collectively it’s Week 3 in opposition to the Giants. New York allowed a staggering 85 sacks final season, and whereas New York received win No. 1 in Cleveland final week they're nonetheless surrendering the fifth-most fantasy factors to defenses. This is a “get right” spot for Dallas, even when it’s solely momentary.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Given that the Raiders simply received 36 factors dropped on them by the Andy Dalton-led Carolina Panthers, this might sound an odd advice. But it is a lot much less in regards to the Raiders than who they play. The Cleveland Browns are a dumpster fireplace offensively, with an injury-ravaged offensive line that allowed Deshaun Watson to be sacked eight occasions in final week’s loss to the Giants. Look for Maxx Crosby to feast in opposition to that line, and for the Vegas protection to rebound in opposition to a Browns workforce that's giving up the second-most fantasy factors to defenses this season.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Dolphins have hardly been lights-out defensively this season, though it’s exhausting to fault final week’s efficiency in opposition to the Seattle Seahawks an excessive amount of given the offense’s incapability to maneuver the ball with third-string quarterback Tim Boyle underneath heart. But this has quite a bit much less to do with the Dolphins than the workforce they face at residence in Week 4. No workforce has allowed extra fantasy factors to defenses or turned the ball over extra in 2024 than the winless Titans. It simply goes to point out you – any one that places mayonnaise in espresso on function can't be trusted. At least he received an endorsement deal out of it.
Tennessee Titans (at Miami Dolphins)
Not many anticipated a Dolphins offense loaded with skill-position expertise to be a matchup to focus on this 12 months for opposing defenses, nevertheless it’s develop into clear that each one the ability place expertise on the earth is of little use in case your quarterback can’t get them the ball. Tua Tagovailoa could have sustained his concussion working the ball, however given how porous the Miami offensive line regarded in permitting six sacks in Week 3, it was doubtless only a matter of time till Tagovailoa went down because the end result of the type of beating that Skylar Thompson took per week in the past.
Cincinnati Bengals (at Carolina Panthers)
This is one other name that can most likely elicit a double-take or two – the Andy Dalton-led Panthers dropped three dozen on the Raiders Sunday, and the Cincy protection gave up much more than that in a Monday night time loss to the Commanders that dropped the Bengals to 0-3 for the season. But the Panthers aren’t that good offensively and the Bengals aren’t that unhealthy defensively. Carolina has additionally allowed the Eleventh-most fantasy factors to defenses even after final week’s eruption in opposition to Las Vegas. The Bengals want a win within the worst means. They step up in Week 4 – no less than for per week.
Los Angeles Rams (at Chicago Bears)
At first look, the Rams don’t seem to have a lot to supply fantasy managers defensively – the Rams are useless final in whole protection after three weeks and have posted the third-fewest fantasy factors on the place. But the Bears have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy factors to defenses this season, and whereas Bears quarterback Caleb Williams threw for over 350 yards final week, he additionally turned it over 3 times and was sacked 4 occasions. If you want a streamer begin in deeper leagues, the Rams needs to be out there.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Buffalo Bills (at Baltimore Ravens)
The Ravens protection goes previous “Caveat Emptor” this week – between their struggles and the best way the Bills offense is buzzing, wanting elsewhere is advisable. But regardless of a dominant efficiency within the win over Jacksonville, the Bills are a dangerous D/ST begin Sunday night time as properly. The Ravens are twenty ninth in fantasy factors given as much as defenses this season, and final week in opposition to the Cowboys Baltimore ran the ball a staggering 45 occasions whereas making an attempt simply 15 passes. If they keep ground-heavy in Week 4, sacks and takeaways shall be that a lot tougher to return by.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks
