Heading West: Memphis Holds the Key to the Next Realignment Wave | realignment

Go West, younger man.

Surely, you’ve heard the phrase earlier than. It’s been in American existence since the mid-1800s, credited to writer and newspaper editor Horace Greeley, who, in an 1865 version of the New York Daily Tribune, wrote these phrases as a manner to encourage Americans to migrate away from the nation’s founding territories in the East.

“Washington [D.C.] is not a place to live in,” he wrote. “The rents are high, the food is bad, the dust is disgusting and the morals are deplorable. Go West, young man.”

The rents in D.C. stay excessive, by the manner.

But this story isn't about the hire costs in D.C. It is about going west. To be extra particular, it's about going west for a bunch of faculty athletic applications. And to get much more particular, it's about going west for the Memphis Tigers.

The Pac-12’s resurgence — taking 4 Mountain West Conference members — has left one faculty, it appears, with a choice that would utterly reshape the decrease half of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Go West or not?

The state of affairs

Memphis doesn’t have a proper invitation into the Pac-12, however that’s possible solely as a result of it hasn’t accepted a (forthcoming) invitation. The oft-used motto throughout the teaching cycle applies right here: A job can't be provided if it isn’t accepted.

The Pac-12’s pursuit of Memphis justifies what many in faculty athletics know to be true: The most fascinating remaining Group of Five program is Memphis. The faculty resides in a school soccer hub (Memphis typically ranks as a top-10 market in faculty soccer viewership); it has latest success in the sport (successful seasons in eight of the final 9, together with three 10-win years); it has a historic basketball program (11 Sweet 16s); and, maybe most notably in these money-driven occasions, it has an extremely rich and highly effective booster (Fred Smith, the founder and chairman of FedEx, an organization that just lately pledged $25 million in identify, picture and likeness funds over the subsequent 5 years).

It is not any shock that the Pac-12 officers and commissioner Teresa Gould have focused Memphis to be a part of the resurging league with authentic members Oregon State and Washington State and growth colleges Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State set to be a part of the convention in 2026.

To meet NCAA and CFP necessities, the league should attain eight full members, a purpose that the Pac-12 — and/or its consulting agency Navigate — is in dialogue with three different American Athletic Conference members: South Florida, Tulane and UTSA.

What if Memphis goes west?

Memphis holds the proverbial playing cards, it appears. The faculty is the jewel of the American (however not the just one), a proud member since becoming a member of the league from Conference USA in 2013.

Its resolution might impression the resolution of the others, making a cascading exit that would go away a gaping gap in the AAC. South Florida and Tulane are unlikely to depart with out Memphis. And Memphis may not depart with out them. This is a packaged deal or no deal in any respect.

“They may not want to go, but they don’t want the other guy to go without them,” somebody concerned in the negotiations mentioned.

UTSA, in a unique geographical and monetary place, presents a unique case.

Either manner, three or 4 of them would create an jap flank of the new Pac-12.

There are causes to do it.

There is possible extra money in it. Likely is the key phrase right here (we’ll get to that later).

According to a number of individuals who have seen the Pac-12’s presentation, the league is…

• projecting a per-school distribution of as a lot as $12-15 million — in the event that they obtain in buying their high targets in the AAC.

• requiring a minimum of a five-year grant-of-rights settlement (via 2030-31).

• presenting a base distribution mannequin that features a performance-based bonus idea.

The high applications in the AAC are incomes round $8-9 million yearly in all-in convention distribution, which incorporates tv monies, bowl payouts, NCAA event models, and so forth.

For the most half, the distribution from a convention offers colleges their foremost income, at some locations liable for one-third of a division’s funds. It is the driving power for the most up-to-date wave of convention realignment, as colleges eschew historic rivalries and geographic footprints to shift to leagues with TV offers that pay out extra money (ie: Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, and so forth.).

There are extra causes than monetary for the G5 colleges.

Despite the lack of 10 of its colleges, the Pac-12 is banking on its model, community studios and western time zone slots to ship it sponsorship offers, further revenues and unencumbered tv home windows. There can also be a thought that the convention will separate itself if it acquires its main targets in the AAC — not as the sixth league of a brand new Group of Six, however a standalone convention located in a pecking order between the Group of Five and the ACC and Big 12.

It is promoting entry in the College Football Playoff: Win this league and, extra years than not, you’ll safe the fifth computerized qualifier in the CFP.

It can also be, perhaps down the line, promoting extra distribution from the CFP: Could the Pac-12 argue to get extra of a lower of the money than these in the Group of Five?

Basketball isn't an afterthought. Memphis might be a part of a league with San Diego State, a surging energy in hoops that superior to back-to-back Sweet 16s and the 2023 title sport. The Tigers might finally produce other basketball-centric leaguemates in the Pac-12 as nicely, like Gonzaga — anticipated to be a Pac-12 goal.

If Memphis does go west and the others comply with, it leaves the AAC looking for replacements. If he loses groups or not, commissioner Tim Pernetti might convey into the league Air Force, a faculty that he’s been in critical negotiations with for greater than per week. Nothing with the Falcons is imminent (considered one of the points right here: touring Olympic sports activities). Also, Air Force has different choices (we’ll get to that later too).

The replacements are possible to emerge from the Sun Belt or Conference USA, two leagues that supply their colleges about one-third in distributed revenues ($1.5-3 million) in contrast to the AAC. Financially, it might be engaging for James Madison, Liberty, Texas State or whomever else is focused.

Memphis (and the others) going west impacts one other league too: the Mountain West, which is working to solidify its present members with a extra long-term settlement whereas additionally looking for growth colleges. The three AAC colleges going west would possible remove the chance of any extra Pac-12 poaching of the Mountain West (ahem: UNLV, Air Force and Utah State).

It paves the manner for commissioner Gloria Nevarez to rebuild the league with the likes of UTEP, New Mexico State and maybe FCS applications comparable to Tarleton State in Texas or these in the Dakotas (most notably North Dakota State).

The Mountain West Conference presidents granted Nevarez the authority earlier this week to negotiate with growth targets. However, from her members, she possible wants a long-term dedication to solidify the area. Why would UNLV and Air Force agree to such if a greater supply may come from the Pac-12 and/or AAC?

The MWC income distribution is about $5-6 million — roughly two-thirds of the AAC and a fraction of the Pac-12 projections. Could the MWC distribute cash unequally with extra going to UNLV and Air Force below the situation they continue to be with the convention? Sure.

Will it work? It might not matter if one faculty in Tennessee decides to keep in the East.

What if Memphis doesn't go west?

There are loads of causes for Memphis not to do it.

The estimated further journey value for AAC colleges to compete in the Pac-12 is as a lot as $2 million yearly. There is skepticism, too, in the Pac-12’s projected media worth figures. Discussions with networks are solely in very early levels. These are solely projections.

“It’s a risk,” mentioned one MWC administrator. “You are gambling.”

It goes past TV cash to TV visibility. The AAC is carried nationally in a long-term take care of ESPN. Who will the Pac-12 strike a take care of? FOX? ESPN? A streamer comparable to Amazon or Apple? What about The CW or TNT? These are questions value asking if getting into a league and not using a secured tv rights package deal.

Another query: Does this get you nearer to an influence convention?

For years, Group of Five colleges have jockeyed to attain the energy convention degree. Most just lately, SMU, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF made the leap to the higher ranks, the place extra model energy brings status and riches. Money and model are by no means extra essential than now, when the House settlement case is ready to usher in a revenue-sharing mannequin possible to additional divide the haves and have-nots.

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For all three AAC members — Memphis, USF and Tulane — the ACC is an aspirational league to be a part of. Within the subsequent seven years, they might get that probability if the ACC’s massive manufacturers discover a manner out (a shortening of the grant of rights or a authorized exit round it).

Should Memphis go west after which come again east in 2031? Or keep in the East and go additional east in 2031?

However, amongst all of the causes towards making the transfer, the AAC exit charge is the greatest. The exit charge is $10 million and requires its members to give a 27-month discover of departure. Here’s the catch: If a faculty leaves earlier than 27 months, the charge will increase to a negotiated quantity.

There is a precedent set. SMU agreed to pay a $25 million charge, a number of sources advised Yahoo Sports.

Is that one thing the Pac-12 can cowl?

The convention has greater than $100 million in new revenues due to it via the implosion of the league — bowl contracts, CFP distribution and NCAA event models — however it's utilizing a lot of these funds for operational functions, Pac-12 officers have mentioned.

USF has its personal purpose to be towards a transfer that may take them, fairly actually, throughout the nation. The distance from Tampa to Pullman, Washington, is sort of 3,000 miles. And Tulane has its personal educational prowess and popularity to take into account.

If Memphis does keep in the East, it might severely disable the MWC. The Pac-12 is probably going to flip consideration to UNLV, Air Force and Utah State, three applications which have or will quickly see the league’s presentation to growth members.

And there’s UTSA as nicely. Remember how UTSA’s state of affairs is financially completely different from these others in the AAC? As a brand new member of the league, the Roadrunners are nonetheless receiving a partial share of about $3-4 million in annual distribution.

And what about Rice? The Owls, additionally new to the AAC and receiving a partial share, are enticing from an instructional perspective for Pac-12 college presidents who imagine that finally (perhaps in 2031?) Stanford and Cal will return to their league. Wishful considering? Probably.

But earlier than any of this occurs, earlier than all of it occurs, earlier than Air Force makes its resolution, earlier than the Pac-12 sends formal invites, even perhaps earlier than the MWC provides its personal members, a choice rests with one college in West Tennessee.

Time is of the essence, too.

The Pac-12 is itching to safe its new growth members. The Mountain West is hurriedly trying to lock up its present colleges. And the American needs to know a solution to the vexing query.

Are you going West?