A summer season warmth wave had as soon as once more sped up the harvest in the Golden Triangle, a largely flat, fertile pocket of land in Montana’s northern plains. In early August, Jon Tester, the state’s third-term senator, was dwelling, at the finish of a protracted unpaved street, tending to his wheat. Tester calls himself the solely “working dirt farmer” in the Senate, and regardless of his critics’ perception that that is largely efficiency, he does, in reality, proceed to until the soil close to the city of Big Sandy, the place he has lived his complete life—and which his grandparents settled in following the Homestead Act of 1862, a giveaway of Indigenous land. Tester and his spouse, Sharla, had lately purchased some further acres from their neighbors, Verlin and Patty Reichelt. “I just talked to him this morning next to his tractor,” Verlin advised me. The Reichelts are lately retired wheat farmers and, like the Testers, half of a vanishing clan of rural Democrats.
When I met the Reichelts for a drink at the Mint Bar and Café, one of the few storefronts in Big Sandy, and requested in the event that they felt snug speaking on the document, Patty mentioned, “I’m tired of being off the record! I’m so tired of Republicans saying that the Democrats are going to take the guns away.” She pulled out slightly card she’d laminated, itemizing thirty-one priorities the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 recommended for a second Trump time period: “Cut Medicare”; “End marriage equality”; “Deregulate big business and the oil industry.” She needed to be out and proud as an MSNBC liberal, and was feeling good about the burgeoning vitality round Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. But when a person in a Trump shirt (“WE’RE TAKING AMERICA BACK”) walked in a couple of minutes later, and obtained a praise from somebody at one other desk, she lowered her voice.
The earlier night, in Bozeman—which has come to be often known as “Boz Angeles,” particularly after an inflow of pandemic-era digital nomads, and the place the median value for a house is almost eight hundred thousand {dollars}—I’d watched followers of Donald Trump pack the area at Montana State University. There have been toddlers in stars-and-stripes onesies and ladies in bedazzled cowboy boots. Bozeman, like Billings and Missoula, tends to vote Democratic, but it surely has produced a quantity of outstanding Republicans. Trump was preceded onstage by a home-town lineup: Governor Greg Gianforte, Congressman Ryan Zinke, Senator Steve Daines, and candidate Tim Sheehy, the younger, blond former Navy SEAL who's making an attempt to unseat Tester and be part of the ranks of wealthy guys from Bozeman at the high of Montana politics. It was a big-bellied, masculine affair. The solely girls to take the stage carried out ceremonial roles: Miss Montana, Kaylee Wolfensberger, sang the nationwide anthem; Christi Jacobsen, the secretary of state, led the Pledge of Allegiance.
Trump lastly appeared round nine-thirty. His airplane had been rerouted to Billings, a protracted drive away. “I gotta like Tim Sheehy a lot to be here,” he mentioned. “He better win.” Trump himself will definitely win Montana by double digits, as he did in 2016 and 2020. His presence indicated each the significance of the Senate race and his lingering dislike of Tester, with whom he has an outdated quarrel. In 2018, Tester had blocked Trump from appointing his former White House doctor Ronny Jackson to run the Department of Veterans Affairs. Trump and his son Donald, Jr., responded by making repeat journeys to Montana to marketing campaign in opposition to Tester. At the latest rally in Bozeman, Trump introduced Jackson onstage to name Tester “a sleazy, disgusting, swamp politician.”
Only round 1,000,000 folks dwell in the complete state, but, come November, Montana might nicely decide the stability of energy in the U.S. Senate. There are different vital races—in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona—however the Democratic candidates in these locations are forward in most polls. Republicans have to flip simply two seats this 12 months to reclaim management of the chamber. In West Virginia, the place Joe Manchin just isn't searching for reëlection, a G.O.P. pickup is assured. And in Montana, the place public opinion may be scattered and arduous to gauge, Tester has currently appeared to be falling behind Sheehy.
Until considerably lately, Montanans forged combined ballots that painted the state a blurry wash of purple. But in the previous decade, and significantly since 2020, rural Montana, as soon as shaded New Deal blue, has gone MAGA crimson. (Smaller cities and Indian reservations are break up.) At the identical time, nationwide politics have displaced native: nationwide marketing campaign cash, nationwide broadcast media, and nationwide tradition wars. Tester is the final Senate Democrat in a crimson, rural state, and one of the solely congressional Democrats left in the northern swath of America stretching from Seattle to Minneapolis.
Though he has pulled out many unlikely wins, this election is his first on the identical poll as Trump. “I’m sure it’ll matter,” Monica Lindeen, a Democrat who served in the statehouse and as state auditor, advised me. “Voting patterns in the state have definitely become more conservative.” The Montanans whom Tester managed to draw in earlier cycles both belonged to a sort of F.D.R.-era coalition (metropolitan liberals, union members, Native Americans, conservationists, farmers reliant on subsidies, ranchers on public lands) or have been libertarians or Republicans who merely preferred him, regardless of his social gathering affiliation. He has at all times performed up his bipartisanship, rooted in an understanding of “Montana values.” But this 12 months, in the glare of the Presidential race, he has began to sound extra like a Republican. Or perhaps that’s simply what it means, nowadays, to be a rural Democrat.
Trump’s recognition with Montanans signifies that any Democrat operating for statewide workplace there wants to tug in MAGA voters. One method to accomplish that is to create some separation between Party and self. In mid-July, Tester, who’s sixty-eight years outdated, grew to become the second Senate Democrat to publicly break with Joe Biden and name on him to not run for reëlection. (A nonpartisan ballot in March confirmed Tester barely forward of Sheehy, whereas Biden trailed Trump by twenty-one factors in the state.) Tester declined to assist Harris and Walz earlier than the Democratic National Convention after which skipped out on the Convention altogether. He went to Missoula as a substitute, to do a marketing campaign occasion with Jeff Ament, the bassist for Pearl Jam, earlier than an enormous live performance. Ament grew up in Big Sandy and performed in childhood basketball video games that Tester refereed. His father was the city’s mayor and gave Tester his first flattop haircut.
When Tester first arrived in Washington, in 2007, after defeating a Republican incumbent, his profile as a seven-fingered farmer (meat-grinding accident), a former public-school music instructor (aspiring saxophonist turned trumpeter, following the meat-grinding accident), and a Democratic senator from a rural state made him uncommon, although not practically as uncommon as he's at present. His cohort included different non-coastal, centrist Democrats akin to Claire McCaskill, of Missouri, and Sherrod Brown, of Ohio. McCaskill was voted out in 2018, and Brown is presently dealing with a tough reëlection battle.
In June, I attended a listening to of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, which Tester chairs. The committee was reviewing price range requests for the Reserves and National Guard. Just a few members of CodePink, the pacifist group, held up their fingers, painted crimson, to protest U.S. assist for Israel in its warfare on Gaza. Other than that, the listening to was boring, an Excel spreadsheet come to life. Tester has made the army, and veterans’ points specifically, a spotlight of his profession. In Montana, which has one of the highest proportions of veterans of any state in the U.S., he has secured funding for brand spanking new V.A. clinics and expanded entry to mental-health care; his PACT Act addresses the fallout from poisonous exposures encountered in the line of responsibility.
I caught up with Tester after the listening to, for a fifteen-minute interview. (“In Washington, my daily schedules are broken down into fifteen-minute increments in order to accommodate as many meetings as possible,” he writes in “Grounded,” his 2020 memoir.) He wore a black swimsuit and an orange-striped tie. He sank his large body into an armchair; his face shaped a trapezoid below his signature flattop. Congress had not been particularly productive in latest months. We had simply heard officers from the Reserves and National Guard testify about delayed budgets and the pressing want for gear. A complete farm invoice was caught. There was no motion on an answer to the border disaster, which is talked about continually in Montana, although solely two per cent of the inhabitants is foreign-born. Tester had joined up with forty-six Republicans to co-sponsor an “immigrant crime” invoice, and he opposed the Biden Administration’s try to determine minimum-staffing quotas in nursing houses. The quota “is a prime example of a one-size-doesn’t-fit-all policy coming out of Washington, D.C.,” he advised me. “We don’t have enough doctors and nurses in Montana.”
When I requested what the highlights of the legislative session had been, he sighed. “Not unlike previous sessions, I really don’t think about what we’ve done, because we’re more focussed on what has to be done,” he mentioned. “During my time here, we’ve lost a lot of folks in the middle. You try to find common ground. Like, on the farm bill, you agree on something and put it on the floor, let the committee fix the problems.” He went on, “Then the people know you’re working. They’re thinking this place is totally screwed up, which it is.”
Tester flies again to Montana practically each weekend, and maintains the public persona, and social-media accounts, of a small-town farmer or mechanic, the type of man each Montanan used to know. “He’s always been this very open, personable, funny guy, which I think has been one of the reasons why he continues to win,” Mike Dennison, a veteran reporter in the state, advised me. “This campaign, I am surprised at how much he is completely running away from Democrats and not stopping and saying, ‘Here are the things that Democrats have done that are good for Montana, such as the infrastructure bill and hundreds of millions of dollars for the expansion of broadband.’ ” (When I requested Tester’s marketing campaign about this, nobody would reply instantly, however they mentioned that he has not shied away from touting these accomplishments.)
While Tester goes it alone, his opponent has hewed near the nationwide Party. Sheehy is in his late thirties and new to politics. He grew up in Minnesota—Tester’s marketing campaign calls him an “out of stater”—however now presents as completely Mountain West. He writes in his memoir, “Mudslingers,” that the 9/11 assaults spurred him to hitch the army. He attended the U.S. Naval Academy, the place he met his future spouse, Carmen, then grew to become a Navy SEAL and was deployed to quite a few battle zones. About a decade in the past, he retired from the armed forces, purchased ranchland close to Bozeman, and began Bridger Aerospace, an aerial-firefighting firm that contracts with authorities businesses to place out wildfires, which have been intensified by local weather change. (Sheehy has described local weather change as “neither a fantasy nor merely a political tool.”) Watching America’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, in 2021, he grew offended and motivated. “That’s when I called Ryan Zinke, Steve Daines, the Governor, and said, ‘Whatever I can do, I have a personal vendetta against this Administration, old F.J.B.”—Failing Joe Biden—“over there and all his lackeys, who include that stupid, two-faced Tester,” he recalled at a fund-raising dinner in April.
