Astros vs Padres: Predictions, Picks, and Odds for 9/17 | Sports Betting

The Houston Astros (81-69) and San Diego Padres (86-65) play the center recreation of their interleague sequence on Tuesday evening at Petco Park. First pitch is about for 9:40 p.m. ET; the sport will probably be broadcast on TruTV and Space City Home Network. With that, let's dive into my Astros vs Padres prediction.

Tuesday's Astros-Padres conflict options two high-quality beginning pitchers as Hunter Brown takes on Michael King. Both starters have ERAs beneath 2.50 because the All-Star break, however get powerful matchups towards two of the most well liked lineups in MLB.

On the postseason entrance, the Astros personal a four-game lead within the AL West whereas the Padres have 2 1/2 recreation lead for the primary NL wild-card spot. What can we count on from this potential World Series matchup?

• Astros-Padres picks: Over 7.5 (+100 | Play to -110)

My Astros-Padres greatest guess is on Over 7.5 runs, the place I see worth at +100. The greatest line is on the market at bet365, in addition to different sportsbooks — be sure that to seek out the very best odds by checking our stay MLB odds web page.

Astros vs Padres Odds

Tuesday, Sept. 17

9:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Astros Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-105	7 -120o / +100u	+1.5 -225

Padres Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-115	7 -120o / +100u	-1.5 +185

Projected Starting Pitchers for Astros-Padres on Tuesday

Nick Martin’s Astros vs Padres Preview

The Astros have been held to only six hits and one run within the sequence opener on Monday, however had been in a reasonably dominant stretch of play previous to that.

Over the final two weeks, Houston has hit to the sixth-best wRC+ and fourth-best BB/Okay. This present Astros core has at all times been among the many greatest lineups in baseball versus righties (third in wRC+ since 2021), and has been as anticipated not too long ago with a wRC+ of 110 towards right-handers during the last month.

The Astros will probably be with out Chas McCormick for this matchup, and Jon Singleton, who's been formidable towards righties this season with a .775 OPS, may very well be sidelined with sickness (day-to-day).

Aside from a horrid begin to the season, Hunter Brown has been one of many best possible pitchers in baseball. In 102 2/3 innings, he has pitched to an ERA of two.19 with an xFIP of three.25.

Brown, nonetheless, has provided a number of extra indicators of concern not too long ago. In his final 5 begins, he has allowed a zone contact charge of 91.5% and he has seen his swinging strike charge dip to eight.8%. He holds a Pitching+ ranking of 100 in that span.

Similar to Brown, Michael King has been amongst MLB's greatest starters not too long ago, however he may very well be due for some regression.

In King's final 5 begins, he holds an xFIP of 4.15, with Stuff+ and Pitching+ rankings of 97. He has allowed an OPS of simply .577 with runners in scoring place (RISP) this season, which has helped him obtain a 3.06 ERA in comparison with his anticipated mark of three.48.

On offense, the Padres have been lastly near fielding a wholly wholesome lineup solely to see Luis Arraez undergo an obvious knee damage on Monday. Arraez is listed as day-to-day and may miss this matchup.

Since August 1, the Padres rank second in MLB in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching — NL West rival Arizona ranks first. The Padres have struck out lower than every other crew in that span by some margin (16.2%), rank second in Okay/BB ratio and rank seventh in hard-hit charge.

Astros vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis

King's underlying numbers have tailed off over his final a number of outings, and he will get one of many hardest matchups in baseball on this spot. The Padres bullpen is pretty taxed, too, and will not be as dependable as regular on this matchup.

The Padres supply one of many deepest lineups in baseball, and proceed to characteristic the most effective approaches on the plate. They have been the second-best crew within the league versus righties, and ought to make it powerful for Brown to pitch deep into this recreation.

While each of those starters have been dominant within the second half, that appears to properly accounted for by a low complete of seven.5. At something higher than -110, I see worth betting this recreation to go over.

Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (+100; bet365) | Play to -110

Moneyline

The Astros are 39-37 on the highway this season and 17-20 as an underdog. They are additionally 90-66 on the highway because the 2023 season, which is the third-highest successful share in that span.

The Padres are 41-34 at house and 54-40 as a favourite.

Over/Under

Totals at Petco Park this season are 79-66-4 (O/U). The over has hit 59% of the time (15.1% ROI), which is the second-highest mark in MLB (Marlins are first at 68.9%).

The complete is 28-46-2 (O/U) in Astros highway video games this season. Totals are 17-20 when Houston is an underdog.

• 67% of the bets and 80% of the cash are on the Padres moneyline.
• 70% of the bets and 71% of the cash are on the over (7.5).
• 70% of the bets and 60% of the cash are on the Padres to cowl the run line.

Astros Betting Trends

• The Astros are 4-1 of their final 5 video games
• The Astros are 4-6 of their final 10 highway video games
• The Astros are 38-38 in highway video games towards the unfold
• The Astros are 4-1 of their final 5 video games towards the unfold

Padres Betting Trends

• The Padres are 4-1 of their final 5 video games
• The Padres are 6-4 of their final ten house video games
• The Padres are 32-43 in house video games towards the unfold
• The Padres are 3-2 of their final 5 video games towards the unfold

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